$8 Billion in Free Cash Flow for Shale Gas Drillers “Off the Table”
Free cash flow (FCF) refers to a company’s available cash repaid to creditors and as dividends and interest to investors. Companies typically use FCF to buy back shares of stock, pay fatter dividends, or pay off creditors. When the price of natural gas went through the roof last year, natural gas drillers were rolling in the FCF. Now with natgas commodity prices in the basement, FCF money has been wiped off the table. How much? For six large natural gas-focused drillers (five of them focused on the Marcellus/Utica, one on the Haynesville), some $8 billion of FCF is “now off the table” according to an article by Bloomberg.
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New shale permits issued for Apr. 10-16 in the Marcellus/Utica picked up two from the prior week. There were 20 new permits issued in total last week, up from 18 in the prior week. Last week’s tally included 13 new permits for Pennsylvania, 4 new permits for Ohio, and 3 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was Coterra Energy, with 6 new permits issued in Susquehanna County, PA. EQT was number two with 5 new permits, all of them issued in Greene County, PA.
The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have sifted through the announcements and “guidance” statements from 42 of the country’s major publicly-traded oil and natural gas drillers for 2023. Among them are 11 gas-focused drillers, nine of which have operations in the Marcellus/Utica region. Looking at the list of 11 gas-focused drillers, RBN finds production will be just about the same in 2023 as it was in 2022–projecting a dip of 1% this year. The analysis also finds collectively that the 11 gas-focused drillers will spend around 9% more on drilling this year due to Bidenflation. Spending more to produce the same–not a winning formula for a politician to run on.
Two Marshall County, WV landowners with the same last name (brothers? cousins? father/son?) have sued Southwestern Energy accusing the company of “well bashing.” The landowners seek to have the lawsuit certified as a class action. Well bashing happens when drilling a child well near a parent well causes the parent well to lose pressure or become clogged with fracking fluids and sand. Ultimately the child well causes the parent well to become less profitable (i.e., less revenue from royalties for the landowner). The lawsuit says Southwestern is practicing well bashing intentionally–in order to keep lease rates low.
Southwestern Energy used to be a pure-play Marcellus/Utica driller until it picked up leases and wells in the Louisiana Haynesville play in 2021. Last Friday, the company issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2022 update. The update shows Southwestern now gives more love (i.e., money) to Haynesville drilling than it does to Marcellus/Utica drilling, even though the M-U produces more gas than the company’s Haynesville assets.
The difference between the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) and the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is stark. The former is well-run and rational, the latter is disorganized and irrational. At least with respect to fracking. Over the weekend, the SRBC published a notice in the Pennsylvania Bulletin to announce that during the month of January, the agency approved 38 requests for daily water use on shale well pads in the SRBC’s jurisdictional territory in Pennsylvania, totaling some 233.5 million gallons. Put another way, this is a handy list of where drilling will soon happen in northeastern PA.
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
Last week, the oil and gas industry gathered in Houston for the