Prediction: Marcellus/Utica Gas Production Slows to 2-3% in 2020
As we pointed out in our post yesterday about the U.S. EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report, natural gas production in the U.S. is slowing down (see EIA Nov ’19 Drilling Report: Permian Gas Grows More than M-U). No surprise in that bit of news as we’ve been reporting for months about various drillers in the Marcellus/Utica (and other plays) announcing their intent to spend less on drilling both this year and next. Production in the M-U is expected to grow 8-9% this year over last year. But what about next year?
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Shame on Joe Manchin, who once considered leaving the leftist Democrat Party to become a Republican (but didn’t). Now he’s showing his true colors by pushing a far far far left radicalized candidate for an empty seat on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)–a former “senior attorney” for the odious National Resources Defense Council (NRDC). No way, no how Joe.
Not long ago we highlighted the problem of falling severance tax revenue in West Virginia (see 
Each year the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a special World Energy Outlook report. The 2019 edition was released last week. In this year’s Stated Policies Scenario, the share of natural gas in global primary energy demand grows to about 25% by 2040, and in the Sustainable Development Scenario, gas retains a critical role by supplying a projected one fifth of the world’s primary energy in 2050. Shale production growth is now slowing as investors lose interest, but IEA says: “the shale race is not yet run; many of the most profound impacts of the shale revolution still lie ahead.” Cool!
It looks like we may be almost at a peak–the day we knew would come (but secretly hoped never would) where not only the Marcellus/Utica, but all of the major shale plays in the country stop producing more natural gas each month than they did the month before. Yesterday the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration, our favorite government agency) issued its monthly Drilling Productivity Report. It shows the M-U will end up producing 33,674 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas in November, and their forecast is the M-U will produce 33,720 MMcf/d in December, a gain of 46 MMcf/d (one-tenth of one percent). In other words, statistically we’re at a standstill (not growing) and in the near future we expect to see *less* monthly production. We’re just about cresting the top the hill.
Acting like a petulant baby whose binky was taken out of his mouth, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is threatening to put giant natural gas utility National Grid out of business in New York State by canceling their franchise, their right to operate, and giving it to another company (see 
In September MDN told you about environmentalist wackos at the Bernheim Arboretum (about 25 miles from Louisville, Kentucky) who refuse to grant an easement for 4,000 feet of land they bought *after* the Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) already had a state-approved plan to build a new pipeline over that land as part of tiny 12-inch, 12-mile pipeline (see 
Yesterday MDN brought you an article about the supply chain in Ohio–companies that sell goods and services to upstream (drilling), midstream (pipeline) and downstream (petrochemical) companies (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its “Natural Gas Annual 2018” report which shows the U.S. set new records in natural gas production, consumption, and exports in 2018. In 2018, dry natural gas production increased by 12%, reaching a record-high average of 83.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). That’s the largest percentage increase since 1951, and the largest volumetric increase in the history of the series, dating back to 1930! Behold the miracle of shale.
Gulfport Energy, one of the biggest drillers in the Ohio Utica Shale (210,000 acres), concentrates its drilling in the Ohio Utica and the Oklahoma SCOOP plays. A few weeks ago the company announced they are shopping some of their non-operated assets in the Ohio Utica (see 
The Appalachia Development Group (ADG) is leading an effort to build a ~$3.3 billion NGL storage hub in Appalachia. From the start, the thinking has been the storage hub would be located somewhere in West Virginia (see 
Some Marcellus/Utica gas flows all the way to the Midwest, to markets that include Chicago and St. Louis. Last week we reported that the Spire STL Pipeline is ready to begin service, connecting to the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline to flow M-U gas to the St. Louis area (see 
A leftist anti-fossil group calling itself Protect PT, in Penn Township (Westmoreland County), PA, backed with big money from Big Green groups, continues to sue in an effort to block shale drilling in the township. And they keep losing their lawsuits. Protect PT has launched multiple challenges to a local Penn Township ordinance which allows Apex Energy and Huntley & Huntley to drill and operate wells.
Drilling is great for local counties when it arrives. Especially for the “supply chain” in those counties–companies that sell goods and services to drilling companies. Everything from retail to convenience stores to restaurants to hotels to trucking companies and more. But what about businesses in nearby counties without any drilling activity? Is there any way they can share in the bounty too? There sure is!