US NatGas Production, LNG Exports Keep Growing Thru 2050 & Beyond
Although the Bidenistas are now in control of the formerly objective U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and try to hide the truth about fossil energy, the truth has a way of coming out. In March, we told you about the latest edition of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2023 (see EIA Annual Outlook Predicts O&G, M-U Still Going Strong in 2050). While the information was somewhat buried in the AEO23, if you sifted through the report, you came to the conclusion that fossil energy will still be going strong 30 years from now. In a follow-on post about that report issued yesterday, the EIA admitted in a Today in Energy post that, “U.S. natural gas production and LNG exports will likely grow through 2050.” That had to be a painful headline for a Bidenista to write.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says less natural gas was withdrawn from storage this past winter (Nov. 1 through Mar. 31) than in the past seven years. We entered the heating season with about 3% less natural gas in storage than the average, but because of mild temps during the winter, we used far less than is typical during the wintertime. Hence the low withdrawals.
If we’ve heard it once, we’ve heard it a thousand times–the claim that fracking causes earthquakes. We’ve talked about this issue almost from the beginning of writing the MDN blog site in 2009. A quick summary of our own observations is that frack wastewater disposed of via injection wells (not fracking itself) is the culprit in causing low-grade earthquakes in some areas. However, the wastewater doesn’t cause an earthquake unless the injection well is located on or near a natural underground fault in the rock layer. Rarely (we can count it on one hand) have we read of fracking itself causing an earthquake. Yet a researcher from Ohio’s University of Miami claims research shows fracking itself can cause an increase in earthquakes.
S&P Global Commodity Insights reports that natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica has fallen this month, in April, by some 400 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from the average production seen during the first quarter. The most notable declines are in eastern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania. Why is production down? Falling demand (from mild weather) and high rates of storage (extra supply) are crashing the spot price for natural gas traded at the region’s defacto benchmark trading hub–Eastern Gas South.
Lately, we keep reading predictions that the price of natural gas, while in the basement right now (low $2 range), will soon begin to go higher. And the price will stay higher. So say some experts (see our recent stories, 
We spotted a post by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that, at first glance, we thought, “Yeah, we know that, and we’ve talked about it.” But on second glance, and after searching our own archives, we came to the conclusion that perhaps we haven’t talked about it. At least not plainly. The “it” we’re talking about is this: In 2022, Pennsylvania’s annual natural gas production *decreased* for the first time since the shale revolution began. Which is notable.
New York State’s chickens are finally coming home to roost. The extreme leftist politicians who run the state have assaulted the fossil energy industry for half a dozen years, maybe longer. The assault on fossil energy began under Andrew Cuomo and has continued under his successor, Kathy Hochul. Their actions are leading to electricity blackouts in New York City. Last Friday, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released its quarterly assessment of the reliability of the bulk electric system. While the state as a whole is not (yet) in trouble, NYISO says beginning in 2025, NYC “could become deficient” in electric power. Translation: The Big (Rotten) Apple is heading for blackouts.
Natural gas pipelines use both gas- and electric-powered compressor units. In fact, around 10% of pipeline compressor stations are powered by electricity. Electrically-powered compressor stations on natural gas transmission pipelines have been identified as a possible contributor to gas shortages because they are vulnerable to electric outages during severe weather events. It turns into a vicious cycle. Lack of electricity to the compressor means flows along the pipeline slow or stop, starving power plants of the gas they need to produce electricity. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) recently published an article (study) suggesting possible solutions to fix the issue.
For a moment, we thought we were reading an article in 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks all things energy and energy-related in the U.S. and around the world. Although the EIA has been somewhat ruined by Bidenista influences, it remains our favorite government agency. The agency’s data and predictions are (mostly) reliable. Yesterday the EIA published new data that shows overall U.S. natural gas consumption in January and February of this year has hit its lowest consumption since 2017 (for January) and 2018 (for February). Why the plunge in natgas usage here at home?
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Yesterday’s latest edition once again revises down the price EIA believes the Henry Hub will average for all of 2023. Last month’s STEO predicted an annual average of $3.02/MMBtu in 2023. This month’s STEO says the HH will average $2.94. Let’s add some color around that prediction.
Using numbers from its recently published Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts natural gas production coming from oil-focused plays, called “associated gas,” will continue to grow for the next 30 years. EIA says associated gas will make up somewhere between 20% and 32% of all natural gas produced over that period of time. As oil drilling continues to expand, so too will associated gas production.
In 2022, the first full year after emerging from the worldwide COVID pandemic, the U.S. and world economies rocketed. Inflation rocketed too, but that’s a different story. Because of the high price for natural gas and oil last year (in response to Russia illegally invading Ukraine), U.S. shale drillers increased capital expenditure spending by a whopping 54% over what they spent in 2021. What about this year? The analysts at RBN Energy have analyzed the announced spending by 42 shale oil and gas producers (with a market cap of at least $500 million) and find this year, shale drillers will only expand spending by a “modest” 17%. What about spending in the Marcellus/Utica?
This is a good news/bad news article. The good news is that the Marcellus/Utica region remained the top-producing natural gas region in the U.S. in 2022, supplying some 29% of all the natural gas produced in the U.S. –averaging 34.6 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day). The bad news is that the M-U’s new growth in 2022 was minuscule–just 100 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) over 2021 volumes. The Permian Basin (oil-focused) added roughly 2.5 Bcf/d of new natgas production in 2022. The Haynesville, the M-U’s chief competitor, added nearly 2 Bcf/d of extra production last year. Even the Eagle Ford and Anadarko plays added more natgas production last year than did the M-U. Why?