EIA Mar. DPR: M-U Production Loses Ground, Haynesville Gains
The Marcellus/Utica lost ground in March versus February production, according to the latest estimates released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The latest revised numbers from EIA show that the agency expects that the M-U will produce 34.88 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of natural gas in March. EIA said in February, the M-U produced 35.02 Bcf/d (see our proprietary chart of EIA data below). EIA predicts the M-U region will add another 75 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) of production in April over March–but EIA almost always revises the numbers back down–so we take that prediction with a grain of salt.
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With all the hubbub over LNG exports in recent years, you would be forgiven for perhaps not knowing that until recently, pipelines (to Canada and Mexico) were the dominant, primary way natural gas was exported from the U.S. Only with the rise of the first LNG export facility in 2016 (just seven years ago) has our ability to transport our natural gas to distant shores been a reality. And wow! What a reality it has become! The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. natural gas exports will grow over the next few years–but not because of an increase in pipeline capacity. Natural gas exports will grow, continue to grow, because of LNG exports. Which makes sense. There’s only so much natgas either Canada or Mexico can use from us. The rest of the world is still a blank canvas.
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), in collaboration with Carbon Mapper, Inc. and the U.S. Climate Alliance, conducted a research study in May 2021. The study looked at four different areas across Pennsylvania to measure leaking methane using a specially-outfitted airplane. The study wasn’t so much about who was leaking methane as it was about whether the airborne detection technology was accurate. However, the results (the who) was interesting. The study (see an overview below) chronicles the discovery of 153 total methane plumes detected from 91 individual sources, including oil and gas facilities (63 sources), coal mines (18 sources), and landfills (9 facilities).
Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, released its latest Macro Forecaster, a report developed for the financial services industry, yesterday. The new report is focused on the outlook for near-term oil and gas prices. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a lot of good news for the natural gas sector. According to Al Salazar, senior vice president at EIR, “Natural gas production has been resilient in 2023 in comparison to 2022, and we expect 2.9 Bcf/d of growth over the summer. Some of the growth will be offset by incremental LNG demand from Freeport LNG terminal’s restart and increased price-induced power burn growth, but natural gas prices will be under intense pressure.” Hmmm. We don’t like the sound of that.
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. We poke good-natured fun at the EIA because one month, their predictions go up, the next month, down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? EIA slashed the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub another 11% from the previous monthly report (after cutting it 30% from the preceding monthly report), saying natgas will average $3.02/MMBtu in 2023, down from a forecast of $3.40 last month, and down from $4.90 the month before.
Could air pollution related to drilling shale wells affect those who live nearby? In particular, does shale drilling negatively affect the health of older folks (over age 65)? How would we know if it is affecting their health? Researchers set out to answer that question by analyzing Medicare data for older folks who live near Marcellus drilling in Pennsylvania, comparing the data with older folks who live in nearby New York, where there is no Marcellus drilling. The researchers conclude that living near shale drilling increases the likelihood of old folks having a heart attack, stroke, and other cardiovascular issues.
Looks like the rumors were true. Last December, we told you that oil giant BP (formerly British Petroleum) was considering axing its annual Statistical Review of World Energy publication, which the company has published since 1952. Why stop publishing it? Because being honest about the data was exposing the so-called transition to green energy as the hoax that it is (see 
Consulting giant Deloitte’s new report “Oil and Gas M&A Outlook 2023: Pivoting for Change” examines the shift in the industry and the strategic pivots expected to shape the future. The report says so-called “clean energy” is now a “substantial driver” of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the oil and gas industry and signals big changes in the M&A playbook.
A University of Alberta (Canada) mechanical engineer and his team published a study last month in the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews on the greenhouse gas reduction potential of blending natural gas with hydrogen in Alberta, Canada (full copy below). Albertans can replace 15-20% of the natural gas in their pipes and furnaces with hydrogen using current technology and current pipeline infrastructure. The team found that a 15% hydrogen/methane blend would cut–at most–5% off of Alberta’s carbon footprint by 2050. A nothingburger. But here’s the kicker: Blending hydrogen with methane results in higher average energy prices. Higher prices, no environmental advantages. Tell us again why we want to blend explosive hydrogen with methane in our pipelines?
According to a new report published by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights, annual upstream oil and gas investment needs to rise by 28% to reach $640 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate global supplies. If it doesn’t, the world will see shortages. The Saudi Arabia-based IEF says a cumulative $4.9 trillion (!) will be needed from now until 2030 to meet market needs, even if the growth in oil and gas demand slows down.
The Institute for Energy Research (IER) is a not-for-profit organization that conducts research and analysis on the functions, operations, and government regulation of global energy markets. IER maintains that freely-functioning energy markets provide the most efficient and effective solutions to today’s global energy and environmental challenges and, as such, are critical to the well-being of individuals and society. A new study just published by IER (below) shows how restricting oil and gas development in countries like the U.S. with strict environmental standards pushes O&G development to countries with lower environmental standards. The end result is that the worldwide environment gets worse.
Anti-drillers, with the assistance of biased “news” publications like the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, continually make false accusations against the shale industry in the southwestern Pennsylvania area, alleging that fracking is the cause of rare forms of cancer in children (see 
There are a (very) few Democrats in Washington, D.C., who still support natural gas. It seems most national Democrat leaders (in Congress and beyond) have been coopted by the radical left of the party and now endorse the national suicide of dumping fossil energy. But not all Dems. A group of so-called moderate Democrats who aligned themselves with Bill Clinton formed a think tank in 1989 called the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI). The PPI recently published an issue brief (report) called “The Climate Case for Expanding U.S. Natural Gas Export.” The report says expanding U.S. LNG exports can lower global greenhouse gas emissions significantly, especially if fugitive emissions of methane are deeply reduced. The report even supports the construction of more pipelines here in the U.S. Imagine that! A group of Dems who support natgas and LNG exports. It’s like spotting a unicorn in the wild.