Research

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    NAACP Claims Atlantic Coast Pipeline is Racist, Harms Blacks Most

    We find it particularly offensive when a liberal/leftist group, like the National Association for the Advancement of [Liberal] Colored People, or NAACP, declares a pipeline project to be racist. The far-left organization made the outrageous claim, in a report they issued yesterday called “Fumes Across the Fence-Line: The Health Impacts of Air Pollution from Oil and Gas Facilities on African American Communities” (full copy below), that Dominion’s $5 billion 594-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) will force black people in low income communities in eastern North Carolina to bear “more than their fair share” of the so-called “risks” posed by the pipeline. ACP is a natural gas pipeline that will stretch from West Virginia through Virginia and into North Carolina. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a final approval for ACP in October (see FERC Approves Atlantic Coast, Mountain Valley Pipeline Projects). Since that time socialist/Democrat groups have marshaled their forces to oppose it. The Sierra Club is opposing it in court. Just yesterday we told you about a cadre of regional radical groups (backed by larger groups like Sierra Club) that have filed a petition with FERC opposing ACP (see Little Green Takes 1st Step in Suing to Block Atlantic Coast Pipe). The NAACP “report” is the latest in what appears to be a coordinated attack on the project by the usual suspects…
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    EIA Nov ’17 Drilling Report: Record-Breaking Year-End on the Way

    History will have been made this year in America’s shale plays. That’s according to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Yesterday the EIA issued our favorite monthly report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Last month was a record-breaker when total shale gas output blew by 60 billion cubic feet per day (see EIA Oct Drilling Report: NatGas Production Flies by 60 Bcf/d). EIA says in December production will fly by 61 Bcf/d! A new record. Not only that, EIA predicts that Appalachia (the Marcellus/Utica shale region) will increase its output by 394 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). Put another way, M-U output will go up close to another 1/2 Bcf/d–all by itself. Incredible. Finally, as almost every news story about the DPR is pointing out, December will be the 12th month in a row that shale output has gone up. Welcome to the miracle of American shale energy…
    Read More “EIA Nov ’17 Drilling Report: Record-Breaking Year-End on the Way”

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    Black & Veatch Report: US LNG is Changing the World

    Black & Veatch, a leading engineering, consulting and construction company, released their “2017 Strategic Directions: Natural Gas Industry Report” earlier this week (full copy below). In the report, B&V examines how organizations are planning for long-term, sustainable operations that can handle rising supplies and deliver those supplies to markets eager to use natural gas as a cheaper and cleaner power generation source. The report finds that LNG (liquefied natural gas) is key in shifting oversupply from countries like the U.S. to growing demand centers in Asia, Latin America, India and Sub-Saharan Africa. The report emphasizes calls from the industry to fund infrastructure investments to enable increased LNG imports and exports, including floating LNG (FLNG) and natural gas-based power generating plants. There is no doubt, according to the report, that the U.S. is now in the driver’s seat with respect to LNG. Below is a summary of the key points, followed by the full report…
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    OPEC Report: US Shale Dominates Until 2025, then OPEC Rises Again

    Even OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries–now admits that U.S. shale energy is here to stay. At least for the foreseeable future. For OPEC, the foreseeable future is until 2025. Yesterday OPEC released its annual “World Oil Outlook 2040” (copy below). The massive 364-page report predicts that U.S. shale oil will continue to grow, and dominate the oil markets–until 2025 (eight years from now). At that point OPEC says shale oil will peak and following that, OPEC will once again be in the driver’s seat–ready, willing and able to screw Americans and everyone else who buys their oil. We think OPEC is smoking some good stuff…
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    Flow Data Shows Marcellus/Utica Production Breaking New Records

    Natural gas production in 2017 has taken off like a rocket ship. We began the year producing 71 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natgas in the Lower 48 states. Today? We’re producing almost 76 Bcf/d! While there are several factors in why there is so much new production this year, there is clearly one main factor: the Marcellus/Utica. The ace analysts at RBN Energy have just posted an insightful look into where and how this extra gas is being produced–by using pipeline flow data. RBN concludes there is about 2 Bcf/d of extra gas in the northeast–over and above demand for the gas. That extra gas either has to find a storage facility, or find a way to a new market. Thing is, we’re not done growing production here in Appalachia. Below is an in-depth look at Marcellus/Utica natural gas production, production that’s breaking records…
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    Study: Marcellus Shale Cut PA Residential Gas Bills 40% in 10 Years

    Last week the University of Pennsylvania published “Pennsylvania’s Gas Decade,” a study looking at the impact of the Marcellus Shale on the state’s utility customers over a ten-year period, from 2007-2016 (full copy below). The study shows that on average, PA customers now pay 40% less for natural gas than they did ten years ago. The study also shows electricity customers are paying less–thanks to the Marcellus. Before Marcellus drilling began, PA produced 1% of the nation’s natural gas supplies. Today? PA produces 16% of our country’s natgas supplies. Thank you Marcellus! The study’s author predicts the trend toward lower natgas prices for PA residents will reverse–eventually. Why? The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a staggering 53 interstate pipeline projects that cross PA (more than twice that of any other state). Once/if those projects are built, more gas will flow out of the state, meaning prices for gas will rise. Hey, drillers aren’t sticking around in PA just to break even or lose money. They are in the state to make money, and part of making money is getting the gas to other markets. In the meantime, before the plethora of pipelines are built, PA residents should enjoy the low prices they’re paying…
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    Northwestern Univ Study: Marcellus Shale Fracture Properties

    Researchers at Northwestern University have just published a new study called, “Characterization of Marcellus Shale Fracture Properties through Size Effect Tests and Computations” (full copy below). The study runs 33 pages and is highly technical. The premise of the study is to use a new/different method of testing on Marcellus Shale rock in order to more accurately describe how the rocks behave under certain conditions. We’re not scientists and don’t know whether there are important insights in this research which can help drillers, but we suspect there may be, which is why we pass it along. Any time we see hard science relating to the Marcellus that’s not colored by a fractivist agenda, we think it’s worth highlighting. Below is the abstract, followed by a full copy of the study, for our drilling engineer readers…
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    Study: Coal-Generated Electricity 10-100x More Toxic than NatGas

    Click for larger version

    From time to time so-called experts will come out of the woodwork to proclaim that burning coal to produce electricity is better for the environment than burning natural gas. Cornell professors Robert Howarth and Anthony Ingraffea (now retired) attempted to make that case back in 2011 (see New Cornell University Study Says Shale Gas Extraction Worse for Global Warming Than Coal). Their research was roundly refuted (laughed at) by the U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carnegie Mellon University, and a study by a different group of Cornell professors (see New Cornell Study Says Coal is Not Cleaner than Natural Gas). A new study just published by researchers at the University of Michigan finds when you consider the lifetime “toxic emissions” from both coal and natural gas, there is no contest. Coal’s toxic emissions are 10 to 100 times greater (i.e. more harmful) to the environment than emissions coming from the use of natural gas to produce electricity…
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    Empire State Showdown: The NatGas Battle For New York

    Marcellus Drilling News began in early 2009 after editor Jim Willis noticed an article in the Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin detailing how a group of farmers in Broome County (near where Jim lives) had become overnight millionaires after signing leases with XTO Energy–to allow shale drilling on and under their land. Jim was stumped. He had never heard of gas drilling in the Southern Tier of New York, nor had he heard of XTO Energy. The issue of shale drilling appeared to be an interesting issue, full of technology, politics and money. Sounds like the makings of a soap opera! And what a soap it has been since that time–at least in New York State. Jim has followed the ups and downs (mostly downs) of attempting to launch shale drilling in the Empire State. When Andrew Cuomo was first elected governor, it appeared that he would (eventually) allow fracking. Now? He won’t even allow the state’s environmental agency to approve major interstate pipelines–projects most residents were unaware of just a few short years ago. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) ace reporter Jamison Cocklin recently wrote an in-depth series of articles focusing on New York and what’s happening with the gas industry in the state. It was/is an EXCELLENT series of articles. NGI has assembled the series, along with extra information, into a 16-page Special Report titled, “Empire State Showdown: The NatGas Battle for New York.” Below is a description of the report, with information about how you can download a copy…
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    FERC Report Says Warm Winter Ahead, Gas Prod to Grow 5 Bcf/d

    Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Office of Enforcement (OE) released their 2017-18 Winter Energy Market Assessment, an annual look ahead to the coming winter. OE shares their thoughts and expectations about market preparedness, including an assessment of risks. What does the report show? OE says production is going up (increasing another 5 billion cubic feet per day by next April), natural gas in storage is “robust” (meaning high), and the upcoming winter weather looks to be warmer than normal in most of the country, including the northeast. Translation: Don’t expect the price of natural gas to spike this winter. Prices will remain relatively low. Here’s the full OE report (interesting reading, pretty charts)…
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    RAND Report: Fracking Creates Jobs for STEM Workers in PA-OH-WV

    In 2014, Chevron launched the Appalachia Partnership Initiative (API) with $20 million to fund education (for students) and training (for workers) in STEM–Science, Technology, Engineering and Math across 27 counties in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio (see Chevron Launches Appalachia Partnership Initiative with $20M). Chevron’s partners in the effort are the Allegheny Conference and the Claude Worthington Benedum Foundation. So how is the API doing in its mission? That was what RAND Corporation was hired to study. RAND has just published an analysis of the first two years of API’s efforts (see the study below). Among the key findings: “Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has created a need for workers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia.” Although the oil and gas industry is just now coming out of a several-year slump, RAND says in the future there will be a shortage of workers for the industry. API is hoping to fill that gap, and is (according to RAND) making progress. But more needs to be done…
    Read More “RAND Report: Fracking Creates Jobs for STEM Workers in PA-OH-WV”

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    EIA Oct Drilling Report: NatGas Production Flies by 60 Bcf/d

    MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), yesterday. The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Last month the EIA predicted combined natural gas production across all of the major plays they track would hit 59.7 billion cubic feet per day (see EIA Sept Drilling Report: Marcellus/Utica Production Hits New High). In this month’s report, the numbers are revised. Now EIA says October production will have surpassed 60 Bcf/d, and next month is projected to hit nearly 61 Bcf/d! What else does this month’s report show? The Marcellus/Utica region (i.e. Appalachia) will hit 25.7 Bcf/d of production, up 398 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from the previous month. This is yet another all-time record high and represents 42% of the entire country’s natural gas production from shale plays. You read that right. Our beloved Marcellus/Utica is coming to close to half of all natgas production for the entire country…
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    Annual SRBC Water Report Finds No Impacts from Shale Drilling

    Susquehanna River Basin

    The Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) established the Remote Water Quality Monitoring Network (RWQMN) in January 2010 in response to natural gas drilling activities in the basin. More than 50 water quality monitoring stations are operating in watersheds experiencing unconventional shale gas development. Each station continuously monitors the following parameters: pH, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and relative water depth. The data are collected at five-minute intervals and uploaded to SRBC’s publicly accessible web site. Each year the SRBC releases an annual report evaluating their findings. So far, since, 2010, the SRBC has found no adverse impacts on the basin’s water supplies due to Marcellus drilling and fracking. The SRBC has just released the latest report, for 2016 (full copy below). The trend continues yet again for last year: no impacts from natural gas drilling on the Susquehanna River Basin…
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    Utica Summit V: Investment in Utica Hits $55B, Petchem a Big Deal

    Yesterday Utica Summit V was held in North Canton, OH. MDN could not, unfortunately, attend. But others did and the reports we’re reading indicate it was another great event. Two major news items of interest came from the event. The first was the results of a recent economic study that show an amazing $54.7 billion has been invested in the Utica Shale play from 2012-2016, across upstream ($42.7 billion), midstream ($8.6 billion) and downstream ($3.4 billion). In a surprise statement, the report’s author said, “the biggest impact of the Utica may be the development of gas-fired power plants in Ohio and surrounding states.” The second news item was a big emphasis at the event on the downstream–on the really big deal the petrochemical industry is and will be for Ohio and surrounding states. Presenters made the point that some manufacturers in Ohio were cut off from plastics supplies from the Gulf Coast after the recent hurricanes to hit that area–and that with the Shell and potentially PTT Global cracker plants coming along, manufacturers in the region change where they source their supply of raw plastics. In fact, the petchem industry will explode in Appalachia. All thanks to the Utica (and Marcellus) and the ethane produced. Here’s a pair of reports from yesterday’s event…
    Read More “Utica Summit V: Investment in Utica Hits $55B, Petchem a Big Deal”

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    Deloitte 2017 Survey: O&G Execs Not Confident in Price Recovery

    Each year the consultants at Deloitte conduct a survey of oil and gas industry professionals. Last year the survey showed o&g execs believed we were already in the midst of a recovery for the industry (see Deloitte’s 2016 Survey: O&G has Finally Turned the Corner). What about this year’s survey? Deloitte reports the pendulum has swung back–from optimism back to full-blown caution. They are cautious about prices for oil and gas over the next few years, and cautious about how much activity we’ll see in new drilling (spending will be lower). With respect to the price of gas, a majority of execs believe the price of natural gas at Henry Hub will remain between $2.50–$3 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in 2017, with slight price increase next year, and eventually $3.50/mmbtu by 2020. Most execs think there will be a 10% decrease in drilling budgets in 2018. Here’s the report, hot off the presses…
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    Is Marcellus/Utica Gas Getting Exported from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass?

    One of the reasons we periodically report, and keep a close eye on, Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG export facility in southern Louisiana is our suspicion that at least some Marcellus/Utica gas makes its way to that facility and gets exported to other countries. We’ve never been able to prove our suspicion, but we got a lot closer to proving last February when Williams confirmed that the mighty Transco Pipeline now has a direct connection to Sabine Pass (see Williams Confirms Transco Now Ships Gas Directly to Cheniere LNG). Our friends at RBN Energy have done a deep dive into this topic. Using flow data and their own knowledge of pipelines and reports about new projects coming online, RBN has determined that “there are early indications that recent pipeline takeaway and reversal projects from the producing region and the resulting connectivity are indirectly bridging the divide.” Meaning that by using indirect routes (gas passed from one pipeline to another to another), indeed some of our gas is making its way to the Sabine Pass export facility…
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