Survey Indicates O&G Investing in WV More Attractive than PA or OH
Each year (for the 11th year running) the Canadian-based Fraser Institute surveys petroleum industry executives and managers (333 of them for 2017) asking them their opinions on the barriers to investing in exploration and production in various geographies across the globe. That is, what makes them more likely or less likely to spend money drilling in a particular location? The Global Petroleum Survey (full copy below), tallies the survey responses and ranks each geography from most desirable place to invest, to least desirable. The rankings for this year are interesting and illustrative that politicians’ words and regulatory environment have a direct bearing on where, and how much, drilling companies are willing to spend. No money spent, no drilling. The barriers to spending in a given geography include: high tax rates, costly regulatory schemes, uncertainty over environmental regulations and the interpretation and administration of regulations governing the petroleum industry, and security threats. Only one state in the Marcellus/Utica ranked in the Top 10 “most attractive” jurisdictions for oil and gas investment–West Virginia…
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Each year the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a special World Energy Outlook report. The 2017 edition was recently published. This latest edition of the Outlook says the global energy market will be completely reshaped over the next 25 years by four main forces: (1) the U.S. (because of shale) will become THE global oil and gas leader; (2) the cost of renewables will fall, meaning we’ll see more renewable energy; (3) electricity’s share of the energy mix will grow; and (4) China is going greener. We don’t know about that last one. Ever visited Beijing? Don’t go outside without a gas mask–the pollution is so heavy you literally can’t breathe. Anywho…Perhaps the biggest force is the first one. In addition to leading the world in oil and gas production, the U.S. will become the world’s largest LNG exporter in the next few years–by the mid-2020s according to IEA. That changes everything. Even with the rise of natgas (via LNG) and renewables over the next few decades, IEA says it’s still too soon to hold a funeral for oil. Global oil demand will continue to grow year in and year out through the forecast period (all the way to 2040). Tell us again, green Nazis, how renewables will take over the world within a generation. (We just picked ourselves up off the floor from laughing so hard.) Oil and natural gas are the primary sources of energy for the world, and they will be after everyone reading this is long dead…
We find it particularly offensive when a liberal/leftist group, like the National Association for the Advancement of [Liberal] Colored People, or NAACP, declares a pipeline project to be racist. The far-left organization made the outrageous claim, in a report they issued yesterday called “Fumes Across the Fence-Line: The Health Impacts of Air Pollution from Oil and Gas Facilities on African American Communities” (full copy below), that Dominion’s $5 billion 594-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) will force black people in low income communities in eastern North Carolina to bear “more than their fair share” of the so-called “risks” posed by the pipeline. ACP is a natural gas pipeline that will stretch from West Virginia through Virginia and into North Carolina. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a final approval for ACP in October (see 
History will have been made this year in America’s shale plays. That’s according to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Yesterday the EIA issued our favorite monthly report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Last month was a record-breaker when total shale gas output blew by 60 billion cubic feet per day (see 
Black & Veatch, a leading engineering, consulting and construction company, released their “2017 Strategic Directions: Natural Gas Industry Report” earlier this week (full copy below). In the report, B&V examines how organizations are planning for long-term, sustainable operations that can handle rising supplies and deliver those supplies to markets eager to use natural gas as a cheaper and cleaner power generation source. The report finds that LNG (liquefied natural gas) is key in shifting oversupply from countries like the U.S. to growing demand centers in Asia, Latin America, India and Sub-Saharan Africa. The report emphasizes calls from the industry to fund infrastructure investments to enable increased LNG imports and exports, including floating LNG (FLNG) and natural gas-based power generating plants. There is no doubt, according to the report, that the U.S. is now in the driver’s seat with respect to LNG. Below is a summary of the key points, followed by the full report…
Even OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries–now admits that U.S. shale energy is here to stay. At least for the foreseeable future. For OPEC, the foreseeable future is until 2025. Yesterday OPEC released its annual “World Oil Outlook 2040” (copy below). The massive 364-page report predicts that U.S. shale oil will continue to grow, and dominate the oil markets–until 2025 (eight years from now). At that point OPEC says shale oil will peak and following that, OPEC will once again be in the driver’s seat–ready, willing and able to screw Americans and everyone else who buys their oil. We think OPEC is smoking some good stuff…
Last week the University of Pennsylvania published “Pennsylvania’s Gas Decade,” a study looking at the impact of the Marcellus Shale on the state’s utility customers over a ten-year period, from 2007-2016 (full copy below). The study shows that on average, PA customers now pay 40% less for natural gas than they did ten years ago. The study also shows electricity customers are paying less–thanks to the Marcellus. Before Marcellus drilling began, PA produced 1% of the nation’s natural gas supplies. Today? PA produces 16% of our country’s natgas supplies. Thank you Marcellus! The study’s author predicts the trend toward lower natgas prices for PA residents will reverse–eventually. Why? The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a staggering 53 interstate pipeline projects that cross PA (more than twice that of any other state). Once/if those projects are built, more gas will flow out of the state, meaning prices for gas will rise. Hey, drillers aren’t sticking around in PA just to break even or lose money. They are in the state to make money, and part of making money is getting the gas to other markets. In the meantime, before the plethora of pipelines are built, PA residents should enjoy the low prices they’re paying…
Researchers at Northwestern University have just published a new study called, “Characterization of Marcellus Shale Fracture Properties through Size Effect Tests and Computations” (full copy below). The study runs 33 pages and is highly technical. The premise of the study is to use a new/different method of testing on Marcellus Shale rock in order to more accurately describe how the rocks behave under certain conditions. We’re not scientists and don’t know whether there are important insights in this research which can help drillers, but we suspect there may be, which is why we pass it along. Any time we see hard science relating to the Marcellus that’s not colored by a fractivist agenda, we think it’s worth highlighting. Below is the abstract, followed by a full copy of the study, for our drilling engineer readers…
Marcellus Drilling News began in early 2009 after editor Jim Willis noticed an article in the Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin detailing how a group of farmers in Broome County (near where Jim lives) had become overnight millionaires after signing leases with XTO Energy–to allow shale drilling on and under their land. Jim was stumped. He had never heard of gas drilling in the Southern Tier of New York, nor had he heard of XTO Energy. The issue of shale drilling appeared to be an interesting issue, full of technology, politics and money. Sounds like the makings of a soap opera! And what a soap it has been since that time–at least in New York State. Jim has followed the ups and downs (mostly downs) of attempting to launch shale drilling in the Empire State. When Andrew Cuomo was first elected governor, it appeared that he would (eventually) allow fracking. Now? He won’t even allow the state’s environmental agency to approve major interstate pipelines–projects most residents were unaware of just a few short years ago. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) ace reporter Jamison Cocklin recently wrote an in-depth series of articles focusing on New York and what’s happening with the gas industry in the state. It was/is an EXCELLENT series of articles. NGI has assembled the series, along with extra information, into a 16-page Special Report titled, “
Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Office of Enforcement (OE) released their 2017-18 Winter Energy Market Assessment, an annual look ahead to the coming winter. OE shares their thoughts and expectations about market preparedness, including an assessment of risks. What does the report show? OE says production is going up (increasing another 5 billion cubic feet per day by next April), natural gas in storage is “robust” (meaning high), and the upcoming winter weather looks to be warmer than normal in most of the country, including the northeast. Translation: Don’t expect the price of natural gas to spike this winter. Prices will remain relatively low. Here’s the full OE report (interesting reading, pretty charts)…
In 2014, Chevron launched the Appalachia Partnership Initiative (API) with $20 million to fund education (for students) and training (for workers) in STEM–Science, Technology, Engineering and Math across 27 counties in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio (see 
Yesterday Utica Summit V was held in North Canton, OH. MDN could not, unfortunately, attend. But others did and the reports we’re reading indicate it was another great event. Two major news items of interest came from the event. The first was the results of a recent economic study that show an amazing $54.7 billion has been invested in the Utica Shale play from 2012-2016, across upstream ($42.7 billion), midstream ($8.6 billion) and downstream ($3.4 billion). In a surprise statement, the report’s author said, “the biggest impact of the Utica may be the development of gas-fired power plants in Ohio and surrounding states.” The second news item was a big emphasis at the event on the downstream–on the really big deal the petrochemical industry is and will be for Ohio and surrounding states. Presenters made the point that some manufacturers in Ohio were cut off from plastics supplies from the Gulf Coast after the recent hurricanes to hit that area–and that with the Shell and potentially PTT Global cracker plants coming along, manufacturers in the region change where they source their supply of raw plastics. In fact, the petchem industry will explode in Appalachia. All thanks to the Utica (and Marcellus) and the ethane produced. Here’s a pair of reports from yesterday’s event…