EIA Says 2018 Biggest NatGas Production Yr Ever, Thx to M-U Pipes
Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday (full copy below). Most of the headlines in the media have been about EIA’s prediction that U.S. oil output will hit its highest level EVER in 2018. As in ever, in all of history. The simple reason for the record output is, of course, shale oil output–most of it coming from the once-sleepy Permian Basin in Texas. Something overlooked in yesterday’s report is that 2018 and 2019 will see the most U.S. natural gas output, EVER. EIA says that in 2018 the U.S. will average an additional 6.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natgas production. That is “like the U.S. adding the entire output of Turkmenistan — one of the world’s largest gas exporters — in the space of just one year.” Astonishing! There are two reasons why natgas production will see an historic increase this year: (1) associated gas–the more you drill for oil in the Permian and Bakken, the more natgas molecules come out of the ground along with the oil; and (2) the main reason…new pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica. “Pipelines able to carry roughly 7 billion cubic feet of gas a day away from the prolific Appalachian region are due to start up this year, allowing production that’s been bottled up in the East to flood out.” Thank you Marcellus/Utica for lifting the entire country to new heights!…
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One of the loudest, most persistent arguments by Democrats (and RINOs) in Pennsylvania in favor of a severance tax is that the existing impact fee (actually, better called an impact “tax”) have decreased over time because of a decrease in the number of new wells drilled due to the downturn in the market. There are two gigantic problems with their argument: (1) the impact tax has turned around, and is rising again (see 
In February 2015, Philadelphia-based economic consulting firm Econsult Solutions released a study looking the potential economic impact of the Mariner East 1 & 2 projects, concluding the two project together would result in $4.2 billion coming to Pennsylvania (see 
Yesterday the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the selection of six projects to receive approximately $30 million in federal funding for cost-shared research and development in unconventional oil and natural gas recovery. One of the six projects is for the Appalachian region (Marcellus/Utica area). DOE is chipping in $8 million and another $3.1 million is coming from other sources for a total of $11.1 million to study “the resource potential for multi-play production of emerging unconventional reservoirs in the Nora Gas Field of southwest Virginia.” That’s the first we’ve heard of the Nora Gas Field. Turns out the Nora field, located mainly in Dickenson County, VA, has a lot of conventional and coalbed methane gas wells. The research project will determine if the gas locked away in the Nora might be accessed with horizontal fracking. The project will also look at “novel completion strategies for lateral wells in the unconventional Lower Huron Shale” and the “resource potential of the Cambrian Rogersville Shale.” In other words, this research may well lead to active shale drilling in the Old Dominion State…
Clever researchers at Ohio State University have figured out a way to convert shale gas into products like methanol and gasoline–all while *consuming* carbon dioxide. That is, the process yields zero CO2 emissions (which will thrill global warming believers). Of course the process converts one fossil fuel into another, and just because it’s called “fossil fuel” the warmers still won’t be happy. Whatever. This is exciting new technology with big potential. Not only does the conversion not emit any CO2, it actually *uses* CO2 from outside sources–sopping up some of that over-abundant CO2 that comes from cow burps (and flatulation). The same researchers have also figured out how to use a chemical reaction to “transform” coal into electricity (without burning the coal). Pretty heady stuff. We’d almost call it alchemy! Here’s the lowdown…
The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) has just issued production numbers for the third quarter of 2017. The good news is that production is up for both natural gas AND oil. Utica natgas production saw a huge percentage increase–up 27.51% over the same period last year. 2Q17 Utica natgas production increased 16% over the previous year, and 1Q17 production increased 13% over the previous year. Although the trend has been up this year, 3Q17’s jump is really big (nearly double) compared to previous quarters. The even better news is that until 3Q17, Ohio oil production was trending down quarter after quarter–but in 3Q17 the trend reversed. Utica oil production was up slightly, close to 3%, over the same period last year. The ODNR report lists 1,796 horizontal wells, of which 1,760 reported production of some amount. The average natgas well produced 261,681 million cubic feet (Mcf) during 3Q17, and the average oil well produced 2,367 barrels of oil. But as we all know, each well is unique. Below we give you an MDN exclusive, showing the top 25 natgas wells and top 25 oil wells. In 3Q17, the top 3 natgas wells were drilled and operated by Ascent Resources. Rounding out the top 5 were two wells drilled by Rice Energy (now owned by EQT). All top 5 producing natgas wells in 3Q17 are located in Belmont County. What about oil wells? The top 2 producing oil wells were drilled by Ascent Resources. Coming in at #3 was a well drilled by Eclipse Resources, followed by #4 drilled by Chesapeake Energy. Rounding out the top 5 producing oil wells was a well drilled by Ascent Resources. Four of the five top producing oil wells are located in Guernsey County, with one in Harrison County. You might say, with some justification, that Ascent Resources (formerly called American Energy Partners, Aubrey McClendon’s startup following Chesapeake Energy), dominated the top producing wells for 3Q17, for both natgas and oil…
The Trump Dept. of Energy is hopping on the natural gas liquids storage bandwagon. Yesterday the DOE published a 45-page report called, “Natural Gas Liquids Primer: With a Focus on the Appalachian Region” (full copy below). The DOE uses its own data along with data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (our favorite government agency) to create an up-to-date picture of Appalachian NGL supply, demand, and infrastructure. What does that picture show? It shows we are in desperate need of our own regional NGL storage facilities. No doubt one of the reasons for the report is to goose China into investing in a proposed $10 billion NGL storage plan being pushed by many (see 
Every now and again MDN editor Jim Willis attends a conference or seminar that reminds him how parochial we in the natural gas industry sometimes are. We often (understandably) have our heads down, focused on who’s drilling where and fretting over how we’ll get that gas to market. Sometimes it’s good to lift your head up and observe the entire energy landscape. Natural gas is one piece of the puzzle. An important piece, to be sure! But still, just one piece. Trends in coal, nuclear, solar, wind, hydro–they all play a part in the larger picture. The world of energy is dynamic and changing. New solar plants going up in Japan actually DO have an impact on Marcellus gas production–because that means Japan may decrease its LNG imports–which potentially would come from our LNG exports. You get the picture. This past May the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) held a one-day workshop with government, industry, and policy experts, to explore the outlook for U.S. natural gas markets in the global energy landscape. In November they condensed the material from that workshop into a report. Below is a full copy of that report. This will help you (as it does us) think about the bigger picture and where we here in the Marcellus/Utica fit into that picture…
Another bought-and-paid-for junk science report has been released and is now grabbing headlines from lazy (or biased) mainstream news organizations. A study by researchers from the University of Chicago and Princeton University, funded by the uber-liberal (and anti-drilling) MacArthur Foundation. The MacArthur Foundation funds some of the worst of the worst Big Green groups, including Earthworks, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club, among others. The “study” looked at health records from Pennsylvania and purports to find that in those locations with fracked shale wells, babies are born with lower birth weights than in areas without fracking. And there’s the headline everyone is grabbing. Here’s how it works: Big donors like the MacArthur Foundation go shopping for scientists at highly respected, reputable universities they can buy off with a research grant. They then tell the researchers what the outcome of the study will be. The researchers then conduct their research and magically come to the predetermined conclusion and get it published in a “peer reviewed” (and obscure) scientific journal. It has just happened again, with a study titled “Hydraulic fracturing and infant health: New evidence from Pennsylvania” (full copy below). How do we know this is actually junk science? Even the left-leaning Science magazine says this about the study: “…there is no smoking gun that proves how fracking impairs infant health.” When the left says that about a study, it’s junk…
The GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) has just released its latest annual report, titled “2017 Global Gas Outlook” (full copy below). The report is remarkable for its prediction that by 2040 demand for natural gas across the globe will increase 53% from what it is today. Staggering! What’s even more remarkable is that the GECF is largely made up of oil producing/exporting countries–including Algeria, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. For oil countries to say gas is on fire and going through the roof–now that’s news! Even though these countries secretly hate the U.S. and its abundant shale reserves, they put on a good public face. GECF’s secretary general, Seyed Mohammad Hossein Adeli, said this about American shale gas: “The growth of shale is good because more gas will contribute to the penetration of gas worldwide.” Er, right. Whatever you say, Seyed. Here’s an overview of the report, followed by a copy of the full report…
An important research report has just been released that shows no connection between Marcellus Shale drilling and death (i.e. mortality) rates in Pennsylvania. Since the dawn of shale fracking, antis have made wild claims about fracking leading to low birth weights, asthma, and early death for those who live near active shale drilling operations. This study (full copy below) refutes that junk science–by using real data and real facts. Energy in Depth (an industry group) sponsored the research, but they hired an independent researcher to do the work. Hey, if we don’t pay for real research, it won’t get done! The independent researcher analyzed Pennsylvania Department of Health data for the state as a whole and the counties of Bradford, Greene, Lycoming, Susquehanna, Tioga, and Washington from 2000 to 2014. The data shows mortality rates in those six PA counties (which happen to be the counties with the most Marcellus Shale development) have declined or remained stable since shale production began in the region. In fact, the top Marcellus counties experienced declines in mortality rates in most of the indices. This is yet more proof that natural gas is not only good for the environment, it’s good for humans too…
Yes, we must revisit the topic of “fracking causes earthquakes” yet again (sigh). But maybe this time something good will come of our discussion. Researchers at Stanford University (crazy California) have discovered a way to detect thousands of faint, “previously missed earthquakes” triggered by fracking and by injection wells. “The technique can be used to monitor seismic activities at fracking operations to help reduce the likelihood of bigger, potentially damaging earthquakes from occurring,” according to a published research study. By now you know our standard explanation, the facts about fracking and earthquakes: (1) Injection wells can and do cause detectable earthquakes–when they are located over faults. (2) Fracking shale wells rarely causes detectable earthquakes. We know of perhaps a half dozen times when fracking a well, which again happened to be over a fault, caused an earthquake. Out of the millions of fracked wells that have been drilled. Statistically speaking–fracking doesn’t cause earthquakes–detectable earthquakes, that is. You have to understand something about earthquakes and fracking. From the Standord researchers: “Earthquakes generated by fracking are typically no larger than magnitude 0. That’s equivalent to the amount of energy released when a milk carton hits the floor after falling off a counter.” However, every now and again an earthquake will hit a 1 or even 2 magnitude. Above 2 is barely noticeable by humans. What the Stanford researchers have done is to figure out how to monitor seismicity when fracking (or injecting wastewater into wells), and use that information to predict when the activity may lead to triggering a larger quake. Now that is useful information…
Last week MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, posted an article about the increase in LNG exports from the United States. The article highlighted the one existing and five forthcoming LNG export facilities that are changing the world energy picture by exporting (literally) boatloads American natural gas. The existing, going-full-bore LNG export plant is Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass plant, located on the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Two of the five forthcoming plants (Cove Point and Elba Island) are located on the East Coast–Maryland and Georgia respectively. Cove Point is due to begin exports this month (see