Research

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    OH Utica Production 2Q17: Oil Down, Gas Up, Purple Hayes Slips

    The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) has just issued production numbers for the second quarter of 2017. In a pattern that keeps repeating, oil production was down in 2Q17, down 17% from the same quarter in 2016. However, that’s an improvement from 1Q17 when oil production was down 29% from the year before, and 4Q16 when oil production was down 44% from the year before. So oil is down, percentage-wise, but down less than last quarter. The good news continues to be natural gas production, which was up 16% over the same period in 2016. In 1Q17 natgas production was up 13% over the same period in 2016. Eclipse Resources once again dominated with four of the top 5 spots on the natural gas production list, all of those wells drilled in Monroe County. Ascent Resources continued to dominate oil production with 17 of the top 25 most productive wells. Eclipse had the #2 most productive oil well, the first time the record-breaking Purple Hayes (at one time the longest on-shore lateral well in the world) has slipped from it’s #1 spot since it went online in 2016. Below we have the ODNR’s high level overview of the numbers, along with MDN’s own exclusive analysis showing: the top 25 producing gas wells, the top 25 producing oil wells, and then the top 25 gas and oil wells as ranked by average production per day. There is a difference…
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    WVU Appalachia Ethane Storage Hub Final Report – We Need it Bad

    A research team from West Virginia University spent the past year studying geologic regions in 50 counties in the Marcellus/Utica Shale region to see if our region would support a proposed $10 billion ethane storage hub. The conclusion was delivered last week at a meeting in Southpointe, PA: Heck yeah! Some 100 geologists, chemical engineers, oil and gas people members of academia gathered to hear about the results. WVU researchers released their findings in a published 181-page report titled “A Geologic Study to Determine the Potential to Create an Appalachian Storage Hub for Natural Gas Liquids” (full copy below). Among the study’s findings: A shale ethane storage hub could help create $36 billion in investment and more than 100,000 permanent jobs. It’s HUGE! Our region currently produces three times the amount of ethane that can be used by the mighty Shell ethane cracker, pointing out the need for more cracker plants. Here’s the exciting news that we need an ethane storage hub, and we need it bad…
    Read More “WVU Appalachia Ethane Storage Hub Final Report – We Need it Bad”

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    PA DEP Reports: Air Emissions from Shale Industry Improved in 2015

    The Pennsylvania State Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) keeps track of emissions from various sources–including the shale industry. When drillers drill and pipeline companies pipe, the equipment used leaks some nasty stuff into the air. Frankly it’s no different for any industrial activity or business. Even homes. We all emit stuff into the air. The question is, how much do we emit and does it rise to the level of being harmful? Yesterday the DEP released air emissions numbers for the shale industry for 2015–the most recent year in which they have completed data. What does it show? According to DEP Secretary Pat McDonnell, it presents a “mixed picture.” Some of the nastiest pollutants, like nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SOx) and particulate matter (PM2.5), decreased from 2014 levels. Some things like methane (natural gas, considered a “pollutant” if it escapes into the atmosphere where it’s said to contribute to mythical global warming) are increasing. Because methane is increasing, McDonnell says more needs to be done to stem the leaking. On balance, this report looks pretty good to us–pollution from the gas industry (the things that really matter like NOx, SOx and PM2.5, are decreasing. A reason to celebrate the good work being done by the industry…
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    PA 2Q NatGas Production Report – Another New Record

    It continues to be another banner year for natural gas production in Pennsylvania, going by the latest quarterly production report. Yesterday, the PA Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released their latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for May-Jun 2017 (full copy below). It shows natgas production rose 3.8% compared to the same period last year. It also shows the number of producing wells is up 7.5% from last year. Total natural gas production volume was 1,315.7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and the number of producing wells in 2Q17 was 7,853. Perhaps the biggest news is that 2Q17 saw the highest quarterly production–ever. Another interesting fact from the latest report: Four counties (Susquehanna, Washington, Bradford and Greene) comprised two thirds (68%) of statewide production. All counties except Greene and Lycoming registered production gains. The #1 county for natgas production in 2Q17? Susquehanna County. The #1 driller in that county? Cabot. You might say, with some justification, that the success of Cabot’s drilling program in Susquehanna County has translated into success for all of Pennsylvania…
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    EIA: Gas Processors Key to Rapid Growth in Marcellus/Utica

    Ever hear the old proverb: “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” There are many reasons, many “fathers” for why the Marcellus/Utica region has become the highest producing natural gas region in the U.S. We have great shale rock. We have a lot of shale rock. We’re located close to major markets. We have a large and ready workforce. Increasingly, we have pipeline infrastructure to move the gas to new markets. All of those things contribute to the success of our region. But there’s one element that is critical, but often overlooked–gas processing and fractionation. Gas processing cleans up the hydrocarbons coming out of the ground–removing water and impurities, and separating methane (i.e. natural gas) from natural gas liquids (NGLs). Fractionation further separates NGLs into their components–ethane, propane, butane, pentane, etc. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (our favorite government agency) published an article yesterday looking at they critical role played by processing and fractionation in the Marcellus/Utica. They point out that when the shale revolution really began to take off in our area, circa 2010, we had roughly 1.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas processing capacity. In 2016, that number had zoomed up by a factor of nearly 10, to 10 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity. Without the ability the process the gas, it can’t be sold. One of the main “fathers” of success in the Marcellus/Utica, is processing…
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    3rd University of Cincinnati Finds No Problems with Utica Fracking

    The University of Cincinnati (UC) has now used $470,000 of taxpayer money for three research studies (over the past four years) to study the health effects of Utica Shale fracking. One of the studies dealing with ambient air pollution (published in March 2015) had such major errors the authors retracted it in June 2016 (see Ohio Air “Study” Near Frack Sites Retracted for Basic Math Error). Kind of embarrassing. Another study was completed 18 months ago, looking at potential issues of fracking on nearby water wells in Ohio. That study was funded, in part, by anti organizations who didn’t like the findings–that there IS NO negative impact of fracking on groundwater. So they’ve hushed it up and have refused to allow it’s publication (see Chorus Grows Louder for U of Cinci to Release Fracking Study). Now come leaks that a third research project has been completed at UC, once again looking at air samples near fracking sites–this time looking for elevated levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and formaldehyde. The findings are that, “none of the air sample averages exceeded EPA levels of health concern.” Looks like yet another UC study that will get buried and never see the light of day…
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    WVU Study: How CNG/LNG Vehicles Can Lower Methane Emissions

    Researchers at West Virginia University have just published a new study that looks at how to reduce methane emissions from LNG (liquefied natural gas) and CNG (compressed natural gas) fleet vehicles in coming years. Today’s heavy-duty natural gas fueled fleet is less than two percent of the total fleet. However, in the next 20 years, the heavy-duty truck fleet is expected to undergo a massive change–to as much as 50% of those vehicles powered by natural gas. That is a HUGE number! And potentially a huge new market for Marcellus/Utica gas! Natgas has a lot of advantages over diesel fuel, but folks are concerned over the mythical global warming potential of methane leaking into the atmosphere. Hence this study which looks at ways to prevent that…
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    Utica Shale Powers Ohio’s Economy with Massive $68B Investment

    The Utica Shale’s economic impact on Ohio has been nothing short of “staggering.” In fact the shale revolution has fundamentally changed the United States over the past 10 years. But nowhere is it more obvious than in the Buckeye State. Our friends at Energy in Depth have assembled the results of several research studies of just how much shale has impacted Ohio, and summarized it in a handy infographic download (below). The short version is this: through the first quarter of 2016, if you add the number all up thus far, the “upstream” (drilling) industry in Ohio has invested a whopping $39.2 billion. Amazing! But that’s not all. The “midstream” (pipeline) industry has invested $13.7 billion. But wait! There’s more! The downstream (petrochemicals) industry has invested, so far, $15.3 billion. And there’s far more downstream investment coming, especially if/when PTT Global Chemical decides to move forward with building a $5 billion ethane cracker facility in Belmont County. When you add it all up, the Utica industry has invested $68.2 billion SO FAR. And that’s all private money–not taxpayer money. In fact, millions of dollars have flowed into communities from taxes on the industry. It’s truly hard to put into words just how big a deal this is…
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    The Many Types of Skilled Trades Jobs Needed to Build Pipelines

    The Oil and Gas Industry Labor-Management Committee, led by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and North America’s Building Trades Unions, released a study this week on union pipeline employment across the county. The study outlines the many (many!) different types of jobs involved in building pipelines. You may think it’s just welders and their assistants. No way. It’s FAR more than that. Skilled tradespeople that work on pipelines include: boilermaker, carpenter, electrician, instrumentation technician, insulator, ironworker, construction laborer, millwright, operator, painter, scaffold builder, welder, and plumber, pipefitter, and steamfitter. Of special interest, however, are four occupations that traditionally play central roles in pipeline crews. Three are among the trades listed above: operators (i.e. operating engineers), construction laborers, and plumbers/pipefitters/steamfitters. The fourth is “drivers,” the occupation responsible for moving people and equipment around and between job sites. Now that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has a quorum, pipeline projects will start getting approved and all of the jobs above, in the Marcellus/Utica, will pick up. Below is a copy of the full report, titled “Skilled Trades Employment in the Pipeline Industry: 2006-2015″…
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    New Pipelines Raise Gas Prices for M-U Drillers by 30% in 2017

    Pipelines make a HUGE difference in the price drillers can get for their gas. When more pipelines get built to haul gas out of an over-saturated/producing area, like the Marcellus/Utica, the higher the price drillers can get for their gas. It’s simple Economics 101. Right now we have too much supply and not enough demand. When pipelines start flowing our gas to other markets, it the over-supply goes to places where there’s not enough supply and prices go up. This is not just theory. It’s fact. Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has done an analysis of the price fetched for Marcellus/Utica gas for the first seven months of 2017 versus the same period in 2016. Extra/new pipeline capacity has come online in the first half of 2017. The EIA found that in the first seven months of 2016, our gas averaged a sale price of $0.76 below the benchmark Henry Hub price. In the first seven months of 2017, our gas averaged a sale price of $0.53 below the Henry Hub. The gap is narrowing year over year. That 53 cent price is a 30% improvement over last year. So yes, pipelines make a HUGE difference in the price of natural gas!…
    Read More “New Pipelines Raise Gas Prices for M-U Drillers by 30% in 2017”

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    EIA Makes Big Changes to Monthly Drilling Report, Combines M-U

    MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), has just made big changes to our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Until now, the EIA has always treated the Marcellus (primarily drilling in PA and WV) and the Utica (primarily in OH) as two separate shale plays. Beginning with this month’s report, they are combined into “Appalachia.” The stated reason for the change: “With the increasing number of wells in Pennsylvania being drilled into the Utica formation and some wells in Ohio producing from the Marcellus shale, the previous regional definitions based on surface boundaries are becoming less meaningful, especially where the two plays overlap. Furthermore, combining the relatively small number of active rigs across the broader Appalachia region should improve the precision of our productivity estimates.” That’s not the only big change. EIA also added a new shale play to the list–the Anadarko Basin (found mostly in Oklahoma, with a few counties in Texas). Because of the addition of the Anadarko, natural gas production is predicted to jump from last month’s predicted 52 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for August, to a whopping projected 59 Bcf/d in September. The newly combined Marcellus/Utica is projected to go from 24.3 Bcf/d in August to 24.6 Bcf/d in September, up 350 million cubic feet per day. Yikes! Combining the two regions really puts it in a different light…
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    Oil & Gas Industry Created 656K Jobs, $90B in PA-OH-WV in 2015

    Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute (API) released a new study showing that the natural gas and oil industry supported 10.3 million U.S. jobs and added $1.3 trillion to the nation’s economy in 2015. The study, “Impacts of the Natural Gas and Oil Industry on the US Economy in 2015” (full copy below) found that jobs supported by the o&g industry increased by half a million since 2011, and showed that all 50 states, whether producing or non-producing, continued to benefit from the o&g industry. The study was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and commissioned by API. Yes, it’s an industry-funded study. But hey, if we don’t do the research and toot our own horn, you can be sure anti-fossil fuelers won’t do it for us! This is solid, no-nonsense (and real) economic research. We thought it would be interesting to look at the impact of the o&g industry in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia–the only three states producing Marcellus and Utica Shale gas and oil. Yes, each of those states still has a thriving conventional o&g industry as well and conventional numbers are part of the study–but let’s be honest. The unconventional (shale) sector dwarfs production of the conventional sector. When you look at o&g’s impact in our region, you find that it created 322,600 jobs in PA, 262,800 jobs in OH, and 70,900 jobs in WV. Value added (economic impact) for each state was: $44.4 billion in PA, $37.9 billion in OH, and $8 billion in WV. Add them all together and you get roughly 656,000 jobs and $90 billion of economic contribution in 2015. From one industry–oil and gas. WE LOVE FOSSIL FUELS!…
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    Update on “Evolving Giant” Utica Shale – from Range Resources

    In early April of this year the 2017 AAPG (American Association of Petroleum Geologists) Annual Convention & Exhibition was held in Houston, TX. During one of the sessions, William Zagorski and Taylor McClain delivered a talk called “Discovery of the Utica Shale: Update on an Evolving Giant.” The interesting thing is that Zagorski and McClain work for Range Resources–the first driller in the Marcellus, not the Utica. We don’t have a transcript of that talk, but we do have an abstract and the slide deck used during the talk (below). The slide deck is fascinating. It begins with a history of the Utica. Did you know that the earliest Utica discoveries were in Ontario, Canada? And that the earliest drilling done in the play here in the U.S. was done in Upstate New York–near the Watertown area? No, we didn’t realize that either. In fact, a large swath of the Utica Shale layer underlies New York State–what a pity we can’t explore it because of a corrupt dictator by the name of Andrew Cuomo. At any rate, below is the slide deck, with slides outlining where the “wet gas” and “dry gas” zones are in the Utica. And exploring how Ohio became synonymous with the term Utica Shale…
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    Is Truck Traffic the Culprit in Fracking’s So-Called ‘Health Effects’

    West Virginia University professor and researcher Dr. Michael McCawley, chairman of the Dept. of Occupational & Environmental Health Sciences in the School of Public Health, has been studying the health effects of fracking since 2012. Dr. McCawley launched the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL)–a project that drilled a test well is providing real-time air, noise, occupational safety and health monitoring over a five-year period (see WVU Launches 5-Year Study of Local Frack Site for Air, Noise, H&S). It is one of three such projects approved and funded (in part) by the U.S. Dept. of Energy. When Dr. McCawley theorizes on something to do with fracking, we sit up and take notice. He does not appear, to us, to have any ax to grind with drilling. He’s a researcher looking for answers to questions. We spotted a report by The Allegheny Front, a PBS program with an anti-drilling bent, but sometimes with good reports, interviewing Dr. McCawley about his newest theory as to whether or not, and how, fracking may have local health impacts. McCawley’s theory, after standing in the middle of Montrose, PA watching truck after truck after truck pass through town, is that the presence of so many trucks, most of them burning diesel fuel, may indeed impact people who live close to drilling sites. Diesel emissions in concentrated form are not good. Here’s what McCawley had to say, via Allegheny Front
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    PwC Report: Marcellus Dominates O&G M&A Deals in 2Q17

    According to one of the top accounting/consulting firms in the world, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector in the U.S. went from being red hot in 1Q17 ($73.04 billion) to just hot in 2Q17 ($37.01 billion). While some in the financial (and oil/gas community) may view the weaker M&A numbers as “cause for alarm,” PwC says to calm down. “Place that number in a longer-term historical context and it’s clear that the market is still robust. The $37.01 billion of deals in the second quarter is the third highest second quarter during the past eight years. Additionally, with over $110 billion in announced deals during the first half of the year, 2017 is off to the strongest start in the past eight years.” If you rank the number of deals done, the Permian comes out on top in 2Q17, with $4.49 billion worth of deals. However, the might Marcellus trumps that. With only four deals (one of them the huge EQT/Rice Energy deal), the Marcellus saw $10.22 billion worth of M&A deals in 2Q17–top dog. Here’s the latest quarterly M&A in the oil and gas sector update from PwC…
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    UPenn Discovers Cheap Alternative to Steam Cracking Ethane

    When huge ethane crackers like the proposed Shell cracker in Beaver County, PA use steam to “split” or “crack” ethane to form ethylene (the raw material used to make plastics), it takes a lot of energy, and there’s a lot of “leftover” energy and leftover carbon dioxide (CO2). As the mythology goes, more CO2 in the atmosphere leads to global warming (if you believe in that sort of thing). Scientists have long known of other ways to convert “heavier” hydrocarbons, like ethane, into “lighter” hydrocarbons, like ethylene, using metals via a chemical process. But the metals used are rare and expensive–things like rhodium, ruthenium and iridium. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say they have found a way to use cheaper, more abundant metals, like titanium, to transform natural gas, ethane and other hydrocarbons into more useful chemicals like ethylene. The big bonus? No leftover CO2 to worry about…
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