Research

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    Wind & Solar Powergen 3-4x More Expensive to Build than NatGas

    Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has done us all a huge favor. Yesterday we brought you a post by EIA’s Today in Energy that points out in 2016 some 81% of all the energy we used in the US of A came from fossil fuels (see Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate American Energy – 81% in 2016). Today we bring you another post from the EIA. This one compares the cost to build new electric generation plants, as measured by how much it costs per megawatt hour produced, to build the plant. What the post points out is that the only source of new electric power that’s cheaper to build/produce than natural gas, is hydroelectric power. Dams. And even at that, hydro is not all that much cheaper than natgas. Wind is nearly triple the price of natgas to build, and solar is four times as much! So much for the renewable nirvana future that awaits us…
    Read More “Wind & Solar Powergen 3-4x More Expensive to Build than NatGas”

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    Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate American Energy – 81% in 2016

    Here’s a fact: Fossil fuels have provided more than 80% of total U.S. energy consumption for more than 100 years. Here’s another fact: Fossil fuels provided 81% of America’s energy consumption in 2016–last year. What about all those precious so-called renewables? They provided a little over 10% of our energy needs. However, don’t confuse “renewables” with “solar and wind,” because renewables also include biomass and hydro. If you look only at wind and solar, they provided around 2.5-3% of our overall energy needs last year. When some crackpot claims we could just flip a switch and begin using all renewables anytime before the next 100 years, you know they’re delusional. Ain’t, gonna, happen. You read it here first…
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    New Study: Domestic NatGas Generated $550 BILLION Benefit in 2015

    A new study from ICF International (commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute) reveals some truly mind-blowing numbers. The natural gas supply chain–those companies involved in providing goods and services to the industry–generated $550 billion in economic activity in 2015. More than half a trillion dollars! That’s almost 3% of the country’s GDP. From a single industry. Staggering. Equally staggering: Because we are finding and extracting natgas here at home, American consumers will have saved more than $100 billion on the cost of natural gas by 2040. That’s a private (non-governmental) $100 billion invested in our economy over the next 25 years. The 268-page study, titled “Benefits and Opportunities of Natural Gas Use, Transportation, and Production” (full copy below) projects total employment related to the natgas industry will reach 5.9 million people by 2040. Can you even begin to wrap you brain around this?! The report contains information and data for how natgas benefits EACH of the 50 states. This is a professional study by a professional firm, not just rah rah unsupported pablum like you get from radical environmentalists. These are real numbers you can believe. Frankly, the numbers tell one of the most incredible stories of the 21st century…
    Read More “New Study: Domestic NatGas Generated $550 BILLION Benefit in 2015”

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    ‘Peak Gas’ Theories Now Relegated to Tinfoil Hat Brigade

    Once upon a time, so-called smart people thought oil would run out at some point (“peak oil” theorists). Such theories have been around since the 1880s, the begging of oil! In the modern era those theories renewed again in the early 2000s. And since then, some have lumped natural gas in with it as well. As in, any day now the “house of cards” that is shale drilling will collapse and the gas will dry up and prices will go through the roof. None other than top oil and gas analyst Richard Zeits, writing on the Seeking Alpha investor website, calls peak gas theories in the same category as conspiracy theories. In our words, peak gas has moved to the tinfoil hat brigade. Kooks. Wackos. But there’s still plenty of them around. Every time overall production drops a bit, the peakers poke their heads out to claim “this is it!” Zeits offers his insights into why there will be plenty of natural gas, for at least the next 10 years (likely much longer), why production will continue to ebb and flow (market demand), and what it all means for prices in the short and longer term…
    Read More “‘Peak Gas’ Theories Now Relegated to Tinfoil Hat Brigade”

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    Trump DOE Investing $18M to Figure Out How to Frack Better

    The Trump Dept. of Energy (DOE) wants to make better frackers. What does being a “better” fracker mean, and how is the DOE further that cause? The DOE is doling out $20 million, of which $18 million will be used on research to “address critical gaps in the understanding of reservoir behavior and optimal completion, stimulation, and recovery strategies for unconventional oil and gas.” That is, figure out how to frack cheaper, faster and in a way that impacts the environment less. And the government is willing to spend some coin to help figure it out…
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    NOAA, Natl Labs Say 100% Renewables Not Possible by 2050

    Anti-frackers like Josh Fox (maker of the propaganda film Gasland) have long relied on a single, flawed research “study” that purported to make the case that the entire country could, if it wanted to, switch over to using 100% renewable energy sources by 2050. The study, titled “100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States” (full copy below), presents “roadmaps for each of the 50 United States to convert their all-purpose energy systems (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to ones powered entirely by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS).” This week a group of 21 independent experts, including the former associate director at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a NOAA researcher who specializes in renewables, issued a devastating rebuttal of the earlier “renewable roadmap” study–saying it has “significant shortcomings,” using “invalid modeling tools” with “modeling errors” and makes “implausible and inadequately supported assumptions.” In the rebuttal study, titled “Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar” (full copy below), the authors rip the earlier “renewable roadmap” study to shreds, exposing the lie that fossil fuels can be phased out within our lifetimes. It’s simply not possible. And it’s time that lie is debunked in the public square. But don’t look for mainstream media to give one drop of ink to this study. It doesn’t fit their renewables-are-nirvana-and-fossil-fuels-are-evil narrative…
    Read More “NOAA, Natl Labs Say 100% Renewables Not Possible by 2050”

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    Babst Calland Report: Resurgence of M-U Industry & Challenges Ahead

    The legal beagles of top energy law firm Babst Calland recently released their seventh annual energy industry report called, “The 2017 Babst Calland Report – Upstream, Midstream and Downstream: Resurgence of the Appalachian Shale Industry; Legal and Regulatory Perspective for Producers and Midstream Operators.” This latest annual review chronicles the comeback of the Marcellus/Utica and what challenges lie ahead. In an MDN exclusive, we have the first seven pages of the 74-page report (see below), along with details on how you can request a full copy. Worth the read! Here’s an overview…
    Read More “Babst Calland Report: Resurgence of M-U Industry & Challenges Ahead”

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    Important New Report on Pipelines & Powergen in Marcellus/Utica

    Here’s a quote that nearly made our eyeballs drop out: “In the PJM queue, there’s roughly 130 planned gas-fired power plants scheduled to enter service through 2021 totaling 76 GW under various stages of development across a large part of the market that includes Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey.” Did you catch that? Some 130 natural gas-fired electric generating plants–most (if not all) of them fed by Marcellus/Utica gas, will go online in the next four years, generating 76 gigawatts of electricity. It is an enormous opportunity for our industry. Where did we read that stat? In a new report published by our friends at Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). The report is called “Pipelines & Power: How New Infrastructure Could Uncork the Marcellus-Utica Natgas Bottleneck.” The opening article in the report contains the quote above (on page 2). This 20-page report is jam-packed with great information, like that quote. Actionable, useful, important information. Let us tell you a little more about NGI, about the report, and how you can get a copy…
    Read More “Important New Report on Pipelines & Powergen in Marcellus/Utica”

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    BP Energy Outlook 2017: Fossil Fuels Still Rule, US to Dominate LNG

    UK oil and gas giant BP released the 2017 edition of their BP Energy Outlook on Tuesday. BP, being a European company, pays homage to renewables and pledges its undying love for the crappy Paris climate treaty. Whatever. There are a few facts from the Outlook that stand out: (1) By 2035, across the entire world, 78% of all energy will come from fossil fuels. So much for renewables riding in to the save us all “any day now.” (2) In 2015, natgas produced 24% of the world’s energy. BP says in 2035 that number will go up to 25%–just a single percentage point. We think that’s grossly underestimated, but who are we? (3) The U.S. will achieve overall energy self-sufficiency by 2023 (last year they estimated it would happen in 2021). (4) Carbon emissions were flat for a third year in a row, driven by “weak energy demand and a cleaner energy mix,” which includes the use of more natgas. Tell us again why we need the Paris climate treaty, when carbon output is going down without it? (5) The U.S. will be neck-in-neck with Australia, but we will likely be *the* dominate LNG supplier worldwide by 2035. Read the full BP report below…
    Read More “BP Energy Outlook 2017: Fossil Fuels Still Rule, US to Dominate LNG”

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    Research Breakthrough: Separating Oil from Produced Water

    Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin say they’ve found a better/cheaper/faster way to remove oil from water. Which obviously would have a huge impact on the shale industry and the prodigious amounts of produced water (i.e. wastewater) that comes out of wells long after they’re drilled. The UT researchers, in a paper published in the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, reveal how they use nanoparticles and a magnet to separate oil from water. In fact, they filed a short, 10-second video that illustrates the process. In just a few seconds, oil embedded in water collects in one location when a magnet is put next to it. Really cool stuff! Is this the future of shale wastewater treatment?…
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    EIA June Drilling Rpt: Another New High in Gas & Oil Production

    Yesterday, MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Get ready to break new records–again! In July, we will once again hit the highest output of shale gas we’ve seen, ever. All seven major plays will produce an amazing 51.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, and 5.5 million barrels of oil per day. In the Marcellus, natural gas output will hit 19.4 Bcf/d. In the Utica, output will reach 4.3 Bcf/d. The biggest natural gas story continues to be the Texas Permian–an oil play! When you drill like crazy for more oil, you also get natural gas out of the hole along with the oil. It’s called “associated gas.” And because the Permian is red hot with drilling, it makes sense natural gas production will spike up too. The Permian will add 161 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of natural gas production in July and hit a total output of 8.5 Bcf/d, now #2 behind the mighty Marcellus…
    Read More “EIA June Drilling Rpt: Another New High in Gas & Oil Production”

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    Ohio Utica Production 1Q17 – Oil Down Again, NatGas Up Again

    The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) has just issued production numbers for the first quarter of 2017. The bad news is that oil production continued to slide in 1Q17, down 29% from the same quarter in 2016. However, that’s an improvement from 4Q16 when oil production was down 44% (see Ohio Utica Production 4Q16 – Oil Down, NatGas Up). So oil is down, percentage-wise, but down less than last quarter. The good news continues to be natural gas production, which was up 13% over the same period in 2016, which is in line with last quarter when it was up 14% over the same period in the previous year. Eclipse Resources dominated the top 5 spots on the natural gas production list, all of those wells drilled in Monroe County (with 3 of the top 5 being on one well pad–the Holliday pad). Ascent Resources continued to dominate oil production with 20 of the top 25 most productive wells. However, Eclipse had the #1 most productive oil well, which continues to be the record-breaking Purple Hayes (was the longest on-shore lateral well in the world, until Eclipse drilled another longer one, in Ohio). Purple Hayes is the gift that keeps on giving, quarter after quarter. Below we have the ODNR’s high level overview of the numbers, along with MDN’s own exclusive analysis showing: the top 25 producing gas wells, the top 25 producing oil wells, and then the top 25 gas and oil wells as ranked by average production per day. There is a difference…
    Read More “Ohio Utica Production 1Q17 – Oil Down Again, NatGas Up Again”

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    Rutgers Study Says Williams Pipeline to NYC Econ Boost of $327M

    Transco Northeast Supply Enhancement Project map – click for larger version

    In May 2016, Williams’ Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company (Transco) pre-filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for a project called the Northeast Supply Enhancement project (see Williams Pre-Files with FERC to Expand Transco Pipeline in PA, NY). The new project will increase pipeline capacity and flows heading into northeastern markets. In particular, Transco wants to provide more natural gas to utility giant National Grid beginning with the 2019-2020 heating season. National Grid operates in New York City, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. At the time of pre-filing, Williams ran an open season to lock up commitments for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project (see Williams Announces Open Season for Northeast Supply Enhancement). The open season worked. National Grid committed to all 400,000 dekatherms (400 million cubic feet per day) of extra gas the project will provide. In March 2017, Williams filed a full, official application for the project (see Williams Files with FERC to Expand Transco Pipeline to NYC, NE). No doubt anticipating stiff opposition from lunatic anti-fossil fuelers, Williams commissioned an independent, third party study of the project with Rutgers University. Yesterday the Rutgers researchers released their comprehensive study (full copy below) that finds the Transco Northeast Supply Enhancement project, which will cost $1 billion to build, will generate $327 million in additional economic activity (GDP) in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. In addition, the project will directly and indirectly generate 3,186 jobs during the one-year construction period, resulting in an estimated $234 million in labor income. This is great news for PA, NJ and NY residents…
    Read More “Rutgers Study Says Williams Pipeline to NYC Econ Boost of $327M”

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    Crystal Ball: Marcellus/Utica Production Over the Next 5 Years

    When it comes to analysts and those who evaluate the oil and gas industry, one of the brightest stars in the firmament is RBN Energy. RBN is founded and directed by Rusty Braziel, one of the co-founders of Bentek Energy (now owned by Platts). Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC, calls Rusty “the smartest man on the oil patch” and the only person he consults with when it comes to the price of oil and gas and what’s happening (see The Smartest Man in the Oil (& Gas) Patch: Rusty Braziel). Rusty has assembled a top notch team that writes and consults on oil and gas. In a series of posts on the RBN Energy website, Rusty’s team has looked at “takeaway capacity” for pipeline projects planned in the Marcellus/Utica, taking into account which projects have been canceled, delayed or are on track. Rusty and the team predict how much new capacity is coming to cart our gas to various outside regions. Based on that analysis, RBN has just released their best guess for how much natural gas will get produced in the Marcellus/Utica over the next five years. In fact, RBN runs four different scenarios for how much gas might get produced, from pessimistic to optimistic. Even under the most pessimistic scenario, RBN predicts natgas production will grow by 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2022. Let’s haul out the RBN crystal ball and predict the future of our region’s production…
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    New USGS Study: Fracking Does Not Contaminate Water Wells

    The U.S. Geological Survey has just done us all a big favor. USGS decided to do some in-the-field research to see if there’s any truth to the wild claims of anti-drillers that fracking somehow leaks up through a mile or more of solid rock to pollute water wells. We’ve heard that bogus claim for years–since shale drilling in the Marcellus began in 2004. Those claims were made popular by the Josh Fox and his fake documentary “Gasland.” So USGS researchers went down to Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas–where there’s a lot of oil and gas drilling–and randomly selected 116 domestic and public-supply water wells located as close as 360 feet to unconventional (i.e. shale) oil and gas wells. The researchers published their findings in a new study/paper in the journal Environmental Science & Technology in a paper titled “Methane and Benzene in Drinking-Water Wells Overlying the Eagle Ford, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shale Hydrocarbon Production Areas” (full copy below). What did the USGS researchers conclude? “Using chemical, isotopic, gas and groundwater-age tracers to thoroughly evaluate those samples — USGS researchers concluded that low concentrations of methane and benzene detected were likely naturally occurring and not attributable to shale development.” Thank you USGS…
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    Study: New England Electric Shortage from Lack of NatGas by 2025

    There is a coming shortage of natural gas to fire electric power plants in wintertime in New England. So says an analysis presented last week to the ISO-New England Planning Advisory Committee. ISO New England Inc. is the independent, non-profit Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) that manages the electric grid for Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The study presented last week shows that there will be enough natgas reaching New England in summer for the foreseeable future, but in the winters of 2025 and 2030, almost every planning scenario shows New England will only have half (50%) of the gas it needs to operate electric generating plants. This is seriously bad news for New Englanders–and something we previously predicted (see Study Finds Dire Consequences if New England Pipelines Not Built). New England’s steadfast opposition to new pipelines will have a real, very tangible effect. They get to choose between no gas for heating, or no gas for electricity… Read More “Study: New England Electric Shortage from Lack of NatGas by 2025”