BP Energy Outlook 2017: Fossil Fuels Still Rule, US to Dominate LNG
UK oil and gas giant BP released the 2017 edition of their BP Energy Outlook on Tuesday. BP, being a European company, pays homage to renewables and pledges its undying love for the crappy Paris climate treaty. Whatever. There are a few facts from the Outlook that stand out: (1) By 2035, across the entire world, 78% of all energy will come from fossil fuels. So much for renewables riding in to the save us all “any day now.” (2) In 2015, natgas produced 24% of the world’s energy. BP says in 2035 that number will go up to 25%–just a single percentage point. We think that’s grossly underestimated, but who are we? (3) The U.S. will achieve overall energy self-sufficiency by 2023 (last year they estimated it would happen in 2021). (4) Carbon emissions were flat for a third year in a row, driven by “weak energy demand and a cleaner energy mix,” which includes the use of more natgas. Tell us again why we need the Paris climate treaty, when carbon output is going down without it? (5) The U.S. will be neck-in-neck with Australia, but we will likely be *the* dominate LNG supplier worldwide by 2035. Read the full BP report below…
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Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin say they’ve found a better/cheaper/faster way to remove oil from water. Which obviously would have a huge impact on the shale industry and the prodigious amounts of produced water (i.e. wastewater) that comes out of wells long after they’re drilled. The UT researchers, in a paper published in the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, reveal how they use nanoparticles and a magnet to separate oil from water. In fact, they filed a short, 10-second video that illustrates the process. In just a few seconds, oil embedded in water collects in one location when a magnet is put next to it. Really cool stuff! Is this the future of shale wastewater treatment?…
Yesterday, MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Get ready to break new records–again! In July, we will once again hit the highest output of shale gas we’ve seen, ever. All seven major plays will produce an amazing 51.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, and 5.5 million barrels of oil per day. In the Marcellus, natural gas output will hit 19.4 Bcf/d. In the Utica, output will reach 4.3 Bcf/d. The biggest natural gas story continues to be the Texas Permian–an oil play! When you drill like crazy for more oil, you also get natural gas out of the hole along with the oil. It’s called “associated gas.” And because the Permian is red hot with drilling, it makes sense natural gas production will spike up too. The Permian will add 161 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of natural gas production in July and hit a total output of 8.5 Bcf/d, now #2 behind the mighty Marcellus…
The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) has just issued production numbers for the first quarter of 2017. The bad news is that oil production continued to slide in 1Q17, down 29% from the same quarter in 2016. However, that’s an improvement from 4Q16 when oil production was down 44% (see 
When it comes to analysts and those who evaluate the oil and gas industry, one of the brightest stars in the firmament is RBN Energy. RBN is founded and directed by Rusty Braziel, one of the co-founders of Bentek Energy (now owned by Platts). Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC, calls Rusty “the smartest man on the oil patch” and the only person he consults with when it comes to the price of oil and gas and what’s happening (see 
The U.S. Geological Survey has just done us all a big favor. USGS decided to do some in-the-field research to see if there’s any truth to the wild claims of anti-drillers that fracking somehow leaks up through a mile or more of solid rock to pollute water wells. We’ve heard that bogus claim for years–since shale drilling in the Marcellus began in 2004. Those claims were made popular by the Josh Fox and his fake documentary “Gasland.” So USGS researchers went down to Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas–where there’s a lot of oil and gas drilling–and randomly selected 116 domestic and public-supply water wells located as close as 360 feet to unconventional (i.e. shale) oil and gas wells. The researchers published their findings in a new study/paper in the journal Environmental Science & Technology in a paper titled “Methane and Benzene in Drinking-Water Wells Overlying the Eagle Ford, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shale Hydrocarbon Production Areas” (full copy below). What did the USGS researchers conclude? “Using chemical, isotopic, gas and groundwater-age tracers to thoroughly evaluate those samples — USGS researchers concluded that low concentrations of methane and benzene detected were likely naturally occurring and not attributable to shale development.” Thank you USGS…
There is a coming shortage of natural gas to fire electric power plants in wintertime in New England. So says an analysis presented last week to the ISO-New England Planning Advisory Committee. ISO New England Inc. is the independent, non-profit Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) that manages the electric grid for Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The study presented last week shows that there will be enough natgas reaching New England in summer for the foreseeable future, but in the winters of 2025 and 2030, almost every planning scenario shows New England will only have half (50%) of the gas it needs to operate electric generating plants. This is seriously bad news for New Englanders–and something we previously predicted (see 
Here we go again. A new “study” published today by Harvard University researchers supposedly indicates that Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia are loaded with underground natural gas storage sites that may leak like the Aliso Canyon debacle in California. The new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, titled “A national assessment of underground natural gas storage: identifying wells with designs likely vulnerable to a single-point-of-failure” (full copy below), says there are 14,138 active underground storage (UGS) wells in 317 locations/facilities in the U.S. The study identifies 2,715 active UGS wells across 160 facilities that, like the failed well at Aliso Canyon, were not originally designed for gas storage. (Gasp) Even worse: The majority (88%) of these repurposed wells are located in OH, MI, PA, NY, and WV. (Double gasp) Here’s the thing: Aliso Canyon was one facility that had a catastrophic failure (a failure which, by the way, hurt no one–it just released some extra methane into the air). While it may be interesting and useful to know (for accident prevention) that there are other facilities constructed years ago, like Aliso Canyon, that were later repurposed to be used for underground storage–each and every location is different, with unique characteristics. No two storage sites are the same geologically. It does not follow, as implied in the report, that because Aliso Canyon leaked, that these other “similar” facilities will eventually fail and leak. However, our main objection to this research–and why we call it fake research–is that the researchers never bothered to go into the field and take air samples to see if there is any ACTUAL leaking going on at any of these thousands of other sites! Fake mainstream news sources are just now picking up on the story and running it. Nothing sells newspapers (or grabs online eyeballs) like fear. And hey, it serves the mainstream narrative that fossil fuels are the ultimate evil. Here’s the kicker: This latest “research” was funded, in large part, by the virulent anti-fossil fuel Heinz Foundation and The Nature Conservancy. That tells you all you need to know about this latest bought-and-paid-for “research” study with a Harvard label slapped on it…
Last year Canadian companies went on a midstream (pipeline) buying spree, snapping up major U.S. companies. In March 2016, MDN reported that Canadian midstream giant TransCanada, lusting for a bigger piece of the Marcellus/Utica pipeline pie, decided to buy Columbia Pipeline Group for $10 billion (see 
An economic report released yesterday by the American Chemistry Council (ACC) shows that the Appalachian region could become a second center of U.S. petrochemical and plastic resin manufacturing, similar to the Gulf Coast. ACC President and CEO Cal Dooley presented the findings at a Capitol Hill press event with lawmakers including Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.). “The Appalachian region has distinct benefits that could make it a major petrochemical and plastic resin-producing zone,” Dooley said. “Proximity to a world-class supply of raw materials from the Marcellus/Utica and Rogersville shale formations and to the manufacturing markets of the Midwest and East Coast has already led several companies to announce investment projects, and there is potential for a great deal more.” What will it take to turn our region into another Gulf Coast petchem powerhouse? According to the report, an NGL (natural gas liquids, i.e. ethane) storage hub. You may recall Sens. Capito and Manchin recently introduced a bill to study an Appalachian NGL storage hub (see 
The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) yesterday published its 2016 Oil and Gas Annual Report. This year the DEP has published the report in an interactive, electronic (i.e.online) format ONLY, with a stated purpose “to improve public access to well information.” This is the first time the report has been published electronically. While it’s interesting to have the report issued online only, it’s not as useful as a PDF or printed document, in our humble opinion. DEP Acting Secretary Pat McDonnell said, “Pennsylvania is the second-largest producer of natural gas in the country and one of the most transparent states in making oil and gas data publicly accessible. Making the Annual Report completely digital is just the next step in our continued effort to share as much information as possible.” We’ll give the DEP an “A” for effort, but a “C” for execution. What does the report show? The number of unconventional (shale) well drilling permits issued in 2016 decreased 59% since 2014. The total number of conventional well drilling permits issued in 2016 decreased 87% since 2014. It is a dramatic drop. There were 1,321 unconventional well drilling permits issued in 2016, and 158 conventional well drilling permits issued in 2016. Even though the number of permits to drill new wells dropped from 2015 to 2016, the number of well inspections hit an all-time high in 2016–some 35,556 inspections. The boys and girls at the DEP have been busy beavers. Below we have the DEP announcement about the new report and its format, along with select charts & information–so you don’t have to wade through the (somewhat confusing) report yourself. We call it the MDN Guide to PA’s 2016 Oil and Gas Annual Report…
A couple of weeks ago the American Petroleum Institute (API) released a new study that shows private investment in U.S. natural gas and oil infrastructure could (and likely will) create over 1 million new U.S. jobs. That is an incredible number! The study also shows that private investment may exceed $1.3 trillion for new oil and natural gas infrastructure. Wow! Over the past five years, U.S. oil and gas infrastructure development proceeded at a rapid pace. Many have wondered whether the trend can continue. API wondered too, so they contracted the experts at ICF to undertake a study that investigates the amount of oil and gas infrastructure development possible in the U.S. through 2035. The result is the report, “U.S. Oil and Gas Infrastructure Investment Through 2035” (full copy below). The report focuses on the amount of infrastructure needed for two different scenarios, a Base Case and a High Case, each of which are plausible scenarios for future market conditions. While the Base Case represents a most likely scenario, the High Case is included to assess infrastructure development in a more robust environment that is fostered by a larger hydrocarbon resource base and more rapid advancements in technology. The study looks at capital expenditures associated with, and the resulting economic consequences of, oil and gas infrastructure development… 
To say that how electricity in the Northeast gets generated has shifted dramatically over the past 10 years is an understatement. In the nine Northeast states, natural gas doubled its share of the region’s total generation to 41% in 2016, up from 23% in 2006. Coal-fired generation fell from 31% to 11% of generation over the same period. Nuclear-powered generation as a share of total generation remained relatively constant near 34%. And so-called renewables like wind and solar are almost undetectable as a percentage of electricity generation. Which means Andrew Cuomo’s insistence that New York get 50% of its electricity from “renewable” sources by 2030 is not only fantasy–it’s lunacy. The man is a crackpot if he thinks that will actually happen. Anyhow, the point of this post, which contains an article recently released by our favorite government agency, the Energy Information Administration, is that over the past 10 years, natural gas has essentially replaced coal in electric generation in the Northeast…