Best Guess on How COVID-19, Oil Price War Will Impact M-U in 2020
The world as we knew it radically and fundamentally changed over the past two weeks. That’s a fact. The double whammy of the COVID-19 coronavirus shutting down world commerce (causing a big reduction in the use of oil and gas), and the Saudis and Russians engaging in an oil price war, flooding the world market with oil at a time when oil demand has gone down, is going to have an impact on the oil AND natural gas markets in the U.S. (and around the world) for months, likely years to come. How much of an impact is yet to be seen. We think the impact will be big. The experts at RBN Energy have taken a stab at predicting how these events will affect the entire U.S. oil and gas industry in 2020. As part of their coverage, RBN looks at impacts on “gas-focused” drillers, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica.
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U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican from North Dakota, sent President Trump a letter on Wednesday asking the President to take “immediate action” in slapping an embargo on crude oil imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC countries. In 2018 (most recent stats) the U.S. imported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Cramer wants the spigot turned off from those countries in order to give our own companies the opportunity to supply oil to ourselves. We personally love the idea–but there are others (whom we respect) who strongly disagree with an embargo or any kind of governmental interference in the free market.
NATIONAL: U.S. oil industry could end up losing more than 200,000 jobs; U.S. natural gas tumbles to 24-year low; U.S. LNG exports rise on week; U.S. shale goes viral; U.S. shale producers cut executive pay as oil prices crash; As total U.S. crude oil imports have fallen, imports from Canada have increased; Educator turned potential profiteer in climate litigation law firm; E&Ps slashing already-weak capital spending amid oil price rout; Coronavirus won’t stop flow of FERC orders, chairman says; INTERNATIONAL: Oil rallies, with U.S. prices scoring their biggest daily percentage climb on record; Fitch sees global oil demand plunging by 7-10 million b/d in 2Q.
Yesterday MDN told you that Shell had not (yet) closed down construction of the mighty ethane cracker plant they are building in Beaver County, PA (see 
On Tuesday MDN told you that Chesapeake Energy has hired “debt restructuring advisers,” to help the company figure out how to stay afloat with $9 billion worth of outstanding debt (see 
Marathon Petroleum, the parent company of MPLX (formerly called MarkWest Energy) announced some big changes last November. Namely, they caved to “activist” investors (we still call them corporate raiders) and their demands to split the company in three and dump the current CEO (see 
We continue to be impressed with New Fortress Energy and its aim to own as much of the LNG supply chain as possible. The company is building an LNG (liquefied natural gas) liquefaction plant in northeast Pennsylvania (see 
Shale Gas News is a weekly radio program that plays on three radio stations in Pennsylvania. Last weekend’s show featured a segment with Colin Grabow, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. Grabow’s research focuses on domestic forms of trade protectionism such as the Jones Act and the U.S. sugar program. Yes, the Jones Act again! During the segment, Grabow describes what the Jones Act is and how it negatively affects U.S. shale gas exports to places like New England and Puerto Rico (see 
It’s getting bloody out there. Just two days ago we told you the “unthinkable” may happen, that oil may approach or hit $20/barrel (see 
Nobody knows just how low the price of oil and natural gas will go due to the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis (see today’s companion story), but that doesn’t stop prognosticators from rendering estimates of prices and (in this case) production levels. We spotted a couple of stories of interest. One story takes a stab at estimating where natural gas production in the U.S. will end up this year (down 2.4 Bcf/d), and another story estimates where oil production will end up this year (down 1 million barrels/day). Here are those predictions and rationale, for what it’s worth…
Montage Resources, the company that resulted after the merger of Eclipse Resources with Blue Ridge Mountain Resources one year ago, issued an announcement on Monday with two important pieces of news. One is that the company has renegotiated a deal with the company that gathers the natural gas from its wells, merging a bunch of separate agreements into a single new agreement. The implied message is that Montage will save significant money. Second, the company has most of its natural gas production hedged for the balance of 2020, preselling it for $2.63/Mcf. They’ve also hedged some of their 2021 production–at a slightly lower price.
Who are the biggest natural gas sellers in the U.S.? You might be surprised to learn that the biggest *sellers* are not necessarily the biggest *producers* of natural gas. Oh, you might recognize some of the names of the top sellers (BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips). But others might be more of a mystery (Macquarie, Tenaska, Sequent, and J. Aron & Co.). Would it surprise you to learn that BP (i.e. British Petroleum) is the #1 seller of natgas in the U.S., and has been for years?
We’d hate to be a big employer right now–like Shell–with all of the COVID-19 coronavirus issues swirling. Shell currently employs some 6,500 construction workers at its Monaca (Beaver County), PA ethane cracker plant site. That’s 6,500 workers coming and going each and every day. Many of them have to get to the job site via a shuttle bus after parking in huge parking lots near the site. Cramped, crowded conditions at a time when the government recommends “social distancing” (who wants to bet that’s the phrase of the year for Merriam-Webster?). Some are criticizing Shell for not shutting down construction. It’s a no-win situation. Shut it down and throw 6,500 people out of work for a month or two or three? Keep working and risk spreading the virus? No good options.
The oil and gas marketplace is often described as being divided into three sectors: upstream, midstream and downstream. Upstream is drilling and producing, midstream is processing and transporting (basically pipelines), and downstream is end-users of all types–converting oil and gas into various products and/or delivering it to end-users. The COVID-19 coronavirus has the power to affect any and all three areas. However, the midstream and downstream (in particular pipeline companies and utility companies) do not expect this insidious virus to affect their operations. Why? It’s called business continuity planning.
As we have often pointed out, if we could have anyone else’s brain in the shale business, it would be our friend Tom Shepstone’s brain. Tom, who writes at