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26 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 8-14
New shale permits issued for May 8-14 in the Marcellus/Utica rose from the prior week. There were 26 new permits issued last week, up from 20 in the prior week (and 18 the week before that). Last week’s tally included 13 new permits for Pennsylvania, 10 new permits for Ohio, and 3 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was CNX Resources, with 7 permits issued (5 of them in Westmoreland County, PA, and 2 in Greene County, PA). Encino Energy, showing up as EAP Ohio in the report, had the second-highest tally with 5 permits (issued in Harrison County, OH).
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Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for the money they invested. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see 
We are currently in the latest quarterly update season. In fact, we are about done with quarterly updates for the first quarter. Most (if not all) of the publicly traded Marcellus/Utica drillers have turned in their quarterly updates, as well as gas drillers from other plays (like the Haynesville). If you review the statements made by U.S. gas drillers in this latest round of updates, you’ll find the sentiment expressed that although we’re currently in the price basement for natural gas, most drillers don’t think it’s going last long. They think low prices for natgas are short-lived and that a rebound awaits us in 2024.
New shale permits issued for Apr. 24-30 in the Marcellus/Utica fell from the prior week. There were 18 new permits issued last week, down from 25 in the prior week. Last week’s tally included 8 new permits for Pennsylvania, 4 new permits for Ohio, and 6 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was Antero Resources, with 6 permits issued in Tyler County, WV. EQT (Rice Drilling) was second-highest, with 4 permits issued in Greene County, PA.
Yesterday Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its first quarter 2023 update. The company reports net production averaged 3.3 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d), an increase of 3% year-over-year. Of that production, liquids (NGLs) averaged 187 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), an increase of 17% from the year-ago period. Natural gas production averaged 2.2 Bcf/d, a decline of 3% from the year-ago period.
Free cash flow (FCF) refers to a company’s available cash repaid to creditors and as dividends and interest to investors. Companies typically use FCF to buy back shares of stock, pay fatter dividends, or pay off creditors. When the price of natural gas went through the roof last year, natural gas drillers were rolling in the FCF. Now with natgas commodity prices in the basement, FCF money has been wiped off the table. How much? For six large natural gas-focused drillers (five of them focused on the Marcellus/Utica, one on the Haynesville), some $8 billion of FCF is “now off the table” according to an article by Bloomberg.
The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have sifted through the announcements and “guidance” statements from 42 of the country’s major publicly-traded oil and natural gas drillers for 2023. Among them are 11 gas-focused drillers, nine of which have operations in the Marcellus/Utica region. Looking at the list of 11 gas-focused drillers, RBN finds production will be just about the same in 2023 as it was in 2022–projecting a dip of 1% this year. The analysis also finds collectively that the 11 gas-focused drillers will spend around 9% more on drilling this year due to Bidenflation. Spending more to produce the same–not a winning formula for a politician to run on.
Last week Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2022 update. Antero management says the company can better handle low commodity prices for natural gas than other M-U drillers because (a) it sells 100% of its production outside of the M-U region, and (b) nearly half of the company’s revenues come from liquids, not methane.
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
Last week, the oil and gas industry gathered in Houston for the