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The Huge Turnaround & Bright Outlook for M-U Stock Prices
What a difference three years can make! Three years ago, Henry Hub prices were hovering around $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Stock valuations for Marcellus/Utica drillers were majorly depressed (down 80-90% from previous highs), and gas producers were struggling. Fast forward to today. Balance sheets and earnings statements are through the roof. Most experts believe $4-$5/Mcf gas is sustainable–at least for the next X years. What does the future look like for M-U drillers? What are the risks? And can we keep the current bright outlook going?
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Yesterday, Washington Gas (a local gas utility in D.C. and surrounding suburbs) announced it is taking “the next step” in the company’s commitment to reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions. That step is to use more Marcellus gas! Except the gas it will use (sell to customers) has been certified as responsible gas by the MiQ standard. Washington Gas is buying its certified Marcellus gas from Chesapeake Energy and Antero Resources.
Last week (Dec. 5-11), the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica dropped by one to 20 from the prior week’s 21. Pennsylvania came back to life with 14 new permits. Ohio and West Virginia both issued just three new shale permits.
Being a “pure-play” or “single play” (as the Brits call it) shale driller has its advantages. It also, in a changing world, can have its risks, or disadvantages. That is the point made in a new analysis by global research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Wood specializes in doling out advice on oil, gas, LNG, power, renewables, chemicals, and metals & mining. In an excellent article delving into the advantages and disadvantages of being a pure-play driller, Wood makes the following observation: “Five US operators – EQT, Pioneer, Antero, Diamondback and Range – have amassed single-basin positions on a global scale.” Yeah, three of the five are M-U pure-play drillers, and the assets they have “amassed” rival (produce more) than many of the Majors’ non-shale assets. It is a truly amazing feat.
Antero Resources is one of the largest drillers in the Marcellus/Utica (with major assets in West Virginia). The company is the fifth largest natgas producer in the country and the second largest LNG exporter. Antero provided its third quarter 2022 update yesterday. Like other major M-U drillers, Antero had a great quarter financially. Antero’s 3Q22 net income was $560 million (adjusted net Income was $531 million), versus losing $549 million in 3Q21. Free cash flow was a whopping $797 million in 3Q. Antero produced an average of 3.2 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d), including 171,000 barrels per day (Bbl/d) of liquids. That’s down just a hair from 3.247 Bcfe/d produced in 3Q21.
Expectations play a big role in investing. The financial markets do a lot of anticipating and forecasting and guessing about where a company or entire sector is heading. Such is the game being played right now with expectations for Marcellus/Utica shale gas companies and their forthcoming third quarter financial updates. Given the high price of natural gas during 3Q22, analysts expect shale gas companies to be swimming in free cash flow. The natural follow-on question is, what will they do with all of that extra cash?
There’s ESG, and then there’s ESG. We’ve tried to make this distinction a number of times, and will use the latest ESG report issued by Antero Resources to make the distinction again. When a huge (very important) company like Antero Resources, a natural gas driller focused on West Virginia, talks about ESG (or Environmental, Social, and Governance), it’s talking about all of the things the company does to prove to wackos that it behaves in an environmentally responsible manner when extracting hydrocarbons out of the ground. When the wackos talk about ESG, they mean (a) get everyone to divest from fossil energy, and (b) if a company happens to be in the fossil energy business, it needs to move away from extracting oil and gas and toward investing in sketchy so-called renewable energy sources.
Each quarter NGI (
Yesterday both Antero Midstream (the pipeline subsidiary of Antero Resources), and Crestwood Equity Partners announced a deal to sell Crestwood’s remaining Marcellus assets to Antero for $205 million. The assets include 72 miles of dry gas gathering pipelines and nine compressor stations with approximately 700 MMcf/d of compression capacity located in Doddridge County and Harrison County in West Virginia.