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$8 Billion in Free Cash Flow for Shale Gas Drillers “Off the Table”
Free cash flow (FCF) refers to a company’s available cash repaid to creditors and as dividends and interest to investors. Companies typically use FCF to buy back shares of stock, pay fatter dividends, or pay off creditors. When the price of natural gas went through the roof last year, natural gas drillers were rolling in the FCF. Now with natgas commodity prices in the basement, FCF money has been wiped off the table. How much? For six large natural gas-focused drillers (five of them focused on the Marcellus/Utica, one on the Haynesville), some $8 billion of FCF is “now off the table” according to an article by Bloomberg.
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New shale permits issued for Apr. 3-9 in the Marcellus/Utica dropped again from the prior week. There were 18 new permits issued in total last week, down from 21 in the prior week (and down from 32 the week before that). Last week’s tally included 13 new permits for Pennsylvania, 0 new permits for Ohio, and 5 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was EQT with 7 new permits (6 in Fayette County, PA, and 1 in Washington County, PA). Two companies tied for #2 with 4 permits each–Coterra (Susquehanna County, PA) and Northeast Natural Energy (Monongalia County, WV).
The sharp analysts at RBN Energy have sifted through the announcements and “guidance” statements from 42 of the country’s major publicly-traded oil and natural gas drillers for 2023. Among them are 11 gas-focused drillers, nine of which have operations in the Marcellus/Utica region. Looking at the list of 11 gas-focused drillers, RBN finds production will be just about the same in 2023 as it was in 2022–projecting a dip of 1% this year. The analysis also finds collectively that the 11 gas-focused drillers will spend around 9% more on drilling this year due to Bidenflation. Spending more to produce the same–not a winning formula for a politician to run on.
Last week Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2022 update. Antero management says the company can better handle low commodity prices for natural gas than other M-U drillers because (a) it sells 100% of its production outside of the M-U region, and (b) nearly half of the company’s revenues come from liquids, not methane.
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
Last week, the oil and gas industry gathered in Houston for the 
A group of landowners in Harrison and Doddridge counties (in West Virginia) sued Antero Resources, claiming the company had deducted post-production costs from royalties not allowed under the leases they had signed. Last year, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia ruled mostly in favor of the landowners. Antero appealed the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (4th Circuit). Yesterday, the judges of the 4th Circuit issued their ruling (full copy below). Nobody got everything they wanted–we’d call it a split decision. However, Antero did win the right to make deductions in certain circumstances.