M-U Drillers Signal 4Q Financial Losses Due to Lack of Hedging
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
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New shale permits issued for Jan. 30 through Feb. 5 in the Marcellus/Utica were about half the number of the week before, but the week before was a recent record high. There were 26 new permits issued in total last week, including five new permits for Pennsylvania, six new permits for Ohio, and 15 permits issued in West Virginia. Which is a turnaround from previous months. Lately, WV has puttered along with just a few (if any) each week. Last week WV issued eight new permits to Antero Resources and seven new permits to Tug Hill Operating.
Last week, the oil and gas industry gathered in Houston for the 
A group of landowners in Harrison and Doddridge counties (in West Virginia) sued Antero Resources, claiming the company had deducted post-production costs from royalties not allowed under the leases they had signed. Last year, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia ruled mostly in favor of the landowners. Antero appealed the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (4th Circuit). Yesterday, the judges of the 4th Circuit issued their ruling (full copy below). Nobody got everything they wanted–we’d call it a split decision. However, Antero did win the right to make deductions in certain circumstances.
What a difference three years can make! Three years ago, Henry Hub prices were hovering around $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Stock valuations for Marcellus/Utica drillers were majorly depressed (down 80-90% from previous highs), and gas producers were struggling. Fast forward to today. Balance sheets and earnings statements are through the roof. Most experts believe $4-$5/Mcf gas is sustainable–at least for the next X years. What does the future look like for M-U drillers? What are the risks? And can we keep the current bright outlook going?
Yesterday, Washington Gas (a local gas utility in D.C. and surrounding suburbs) announced it is taking “the next step” in the company’s commitment to reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions. That step is to use more Marcellus gas! Except the gas it will use (sell to customers) has been certified as responsible gas by the MiQ standard. Washington Gas is buying its certified Marcellus gas from Chesapeake Energy and Antero Resources.
Being a “pure-play” or “single play” (as the Brits call it) shale driller has its advantages. It also, in a changing world, can have its risks, or disadvantages. That is the point made in a new analysis by global research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Wood specializes in doling out advice on oil, gas, LNG, power, renewables, chemicals, and metals & mining. In an excellent article delving into the advantages and disadvantages of being a pure-play driller, Wood makes the following observation: “Five US operators – EQT, Pioneer, Antero, Diamondback and Range – have amassed single-basin positions on a global scale.” Yeah, three of the five are M-U pure-play drillers, and the assets they have “amassed” rival (produce more) than many of the Majors’ non-shale assets. It is a truly amazing feat.