M-U Drillers Promise Spending Restraint Even with Rosier Outlook
Have Marcellus/Utica drillers learned their lesson about growth at any cost? It seems the answer to that is, YES! The price of natural gas has been low for a long time due to overproduction. You’ve often read here on MDN that gas prices will be “lower for longer.” And yet with the coronavirus pandemic and the crash in oil prices, the price of natgas has been (mostly) inching up–getting close to $2/Mcf (although it was down again yesterday, to $1.62/Mcf). Estimates for gas prices next year are trending to the $2.50-$2.75 range. Everyone is watching–will M-U and other gas-focused drillers restart big spending and more drilling?
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Cabot Oil & Gas, which is one of, perhaps the best-run shale drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, issued its first-quarter 2020 update on Friday. Cabot generated $53.9 million in net income in 1Q20 and $49.8 million in free cash flow (down from $308.4 million in free cash flow from 1Q19). Cabot is one of (the only?) natural gas drillers with five consecutive years of generating free cash flow. What’s ahead for Cabot in 2020 and beyond?
Companies in the Marcellus/Utica shale industry have stepped up and given money, and in some cases retooled manufacturing operations, in order to help communities, first responders and medical professionals respond to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Companies like ExxonMobil, Range Resources, Cabot Oil & Gas, EQT, Alta Resources, Chevron, Greylock Energy, Olympus Energy, Penn E&R, Southwestern Energy and others. We are gratified and proud of the industry where we hang our hat.
Last week MDN brought you news (from the Associated Press) that Cabot Oil & Gas had “abandoned” negotiations to settle a lawsuit they brought against attorneys who had sued Cabot for something already settled in a previous lawsuit (see 
In April 2017 Dimock Township (Susquehanna County, PA) resident Ray Kemble and lawyers from two different law firms filed a new lawsuit against Cabot Oil & Gas over claims of contaminated water from local fracking. Thing is, those claims were settled by Cabot with Kemble years earlier. Cabot said this was a renewed attempt to sully its good name and reputation and countersued Kemble and his lawyers for $5 million (see 
Last Friday Cabot Oil & Gas, one of the most prolific Marcellus drillers, released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 update, with a look ahead at 2020. During the conference call with analysts, Cabot CEO Dan Dinges began his prepared remarks talking about tests the company has done in the Upper Marcellus. Very exciting results. He also said, near the end of the call, that Cabot has positioned itself to be “the last man standing” in the Marcellus. Hmmm, that’s an intriguing comment! What does he mean?
Yesterday Cabot Oil & Gas issued an operational update for 2019 that includes new guidance for 2020. Think of it as a sneak preview at the forthcoming quarterly update, due out Feb. 21. In the preview, Cabot says it will spend 27% less on drilling in 2020 than they did in 2019 due to the ongoing low price of natural gas.
How many times over the years has MDN made this observation, using words along these lines: Cabot Oil & Gas is the only Marcellus drilling we know that can spin gold out of straw. Meaning they make money even at some of the lowest natural gas prices in the country, found in northeastern PA. A recent post by an energy investment advisor examines Cabot’s unique ability to make money at low prices.
For months MDN has brought you bits and pieces of news from individual drillers, detailing plans to cut back on spending for new drilling in the Marcellus/Utica in 2020. It’s not just happening in the M-U–it’s happening across the country. The experts at RBN Energy have a terrific new post that pulls information about major drillers scaling back into one place. They analyze spending by three different groups of drillers: oil-focused, diversified, and gas-focused drillers. In the third category, all but one of the gas-focused drillers have major operations in the M-U. The stats are sobering. As a collective group, M-U gas drillers have pledged to cut their 2020 budgets 25% from the already-lower spending that happened this year. Ouch.
Masquerading as a nonpartisan, independent nonprofit, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) reportedly “conducts research and analyses on financial and economic issues related to energy and the environment.” The Institute’s stated mission is “to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy.” In other words, they’re anti-fossil fuels. We spotted an article appearing on OilPrice.com that quotes a new “study” issued by IEEFA. The article opens by saying, “drillers in Appalachia are in particularly bad shape.” Is it true? Is the end near? Is it a shalepocalypse?
What’s the clinical term for a person who intentionally wants to harm him or herself? Self harm? Self injury? Self flagellation? That’s what we call the situation at the NGSA (Natural Gas Supply Association) which yesterday said it supports an economy and shale-killing carbon tax “as a critical pathway to aggressively reducing carbon emissions.” Are they nuts? Have they lost their collective minds?!
Cabot Oil & Gas, one of our favorite Marcellus drillers, continued to impress during 3Q19. The company reports free cash flow popped 150% higher than 3Q18–even though the price of natural gas was down 23% over the same period last year. Production was 2.3 billion cubic feet per day, all of it dry natural gas. They drilled 22 new Marcellus wells (in Susquehanna County, PA) and completed 29 wells, which means they’re drawing down their DUC (drilled but uncompleted) well inventory.
On Monday MDN brought you the news that NextEra Energy, largely a renewables company, has made the bold move of buying 39% of the Central Penn Line, otherwise known as Williams’ Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline project (see 
Quick: Which company which recently had a board and upper management shakeup and focuses exclusively on Marcellus/Utica drilling is the #1 natural gas producer in the United States? That’s right, EQT. In a list of the top 40 natgas producers in the U.S. (full list below), it’s striking to note that eight of the top 10 are focused exclusively or primarily on the M-U.
This is one of those “feel good” stories. Going back to 2012, a number of officials in Wyoming County and the borough of Tunkhannock began to dream about connecting the borough to locally extracted Marcellus Shale gas. Among those who helped turn the dream into reality were Williams (the pipeline company) and Cabot Oil & Gas (shale driller). Thanks to the efforts of all involved, Tunkhannock eventually received state-backed funding to build “phase one” of the project (see