Is Marcellus/Utica Gas Production Finally About to Peak?
If you’ve read MDN for any length of time, you know we’re not much for “peak” anything–peak oil or peak gas–the theory that we’ve hit the top and either supply or demand will decrease. There are those who espouse both peak oil and peak gas theories (the tinfoil hat brigade in our book). In point of fact, October is the 34th consecutive month for which natural gas production in America’s shale plays has increased (see EIA Sep ’19 Drilling Report: M-U Growth Slows, Still a New Record). The rate of increase may have slowed a bit, but each month production (and use) still goes up. In Pennsylvania where the Marcellus reigns supreme, there’s been an unbroken chain of quarter-over-quarter increases in horizontal shale gas production for twelve consecutive quarters, or 36 months (see IFO: PA Natural Gas Production Hits New All-Time High in 2Q19). So when we spot yet another article claiming we’re entering the zenith, the top–and production is about to begin a slow decline “any month now”….you can color us skeptical.
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The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a bombshell of a report yesterday. Two reports, actually. USGS periodically updates its estimates of how much oil and natural gas is still not accessed but is “technically recoverable” in various shale plays. The last time USGS evaluated the Marcellus and Utica plays was in 2011, when the two plays combined had 122 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas. In yesterday’s report, USGS says that number has almost doubled, to 214 Tcf. But the biggest surprise is that the Utica has MORE recoverable gas than the Marcellus!
LNG and the amount of so-called greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions given off to produce LNG is the same the world over, right? We mean, LNG is LNG, right? Turns out, that’s not right. At least according to a new study just released by researchers at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). In a new report (full copy below), NETL researchers found that LNG produced here in the U.S. gives off lower GHG emissions during its manufacture than does LNG produced in both Russia and Australia. Meaning Europe and Asia should want to buy and use the better-for-the-environment LNG produced by Uncle Sam rather than buy it from one of those other countries.
Yesterday the Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) released its West Virginia Emissions Brief (full copy below) which shows significant emissions reductions and environmental improvements made across the state. This brief further demonstrates that states can reap the rewards of energy production while practicing sound environmental stewardship simultaneously. Although West Virginia is now the seventh-largest natural gas producer in the country and one of the largest consumers of energy per capita, statewide carbon dioxide emissions have fallen 64% since 1990. And Sulfur dioxide emissions are down 94%!
IHS Markit, a global analytics company that tracks data in the oil and gas industry, recently published a new report titled “IHS Markit Conventional Exploration Results in Early 2018 Through 2019: No Rebound in Activity or Results.” Although we don’t have a copy of the full report, we do have IHS Markit’s excellent summary of the report. Here’s how we summarize their summary: Conventional (vertical only) drilling for oil and gas is pretty much dead and will remain dead–and shale killed it.
Our good friend Charlie Schliebs, managing director of 
Last week MDN published a post from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (based on EIA data) that points out worldwide energy use over the next 30 years will increase another 50%, and most of it will still be provided by (yep), fossil fuels (see 
The Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) is calling attention to the “great untold story” in Ohio and across the nation, a story intentionally ignored over the past week of faux climate change protests by kids playing hooky from school. What is the untold story? That the United States in general, and Ohio in particular, is “leading the world in environmental stewardship and emission reduction.” How? Because of shale energy–specifically because of shale gas.
Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), published an article yesterday in which their expert number crunchers predict the world will use 50% more energy than it does today by 2050–in 30 short years. While so-called renewable sources of energy (which include hydro as well as solar and wind) will see a big jump up in supplying that increased need, the very sobering observation is that then, as today, fossil fuels will continue to supply the lion’s share of energy worldwide. How much?
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration, our favorite government agency), in the coming month of September, the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce a combined 82.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, and 8.8 million barrels of oil per day–a brand new record high for each. However, the rate of growth for both is finally starting to slow from the previous blistering pace we’ve seen over the past year or so.
The Potential Gas Committee (PGC), a private non-profit organization loosely affiliated with the Colorado School of Mines, performs a comprehensive study of potential supplies of natural gas in the United States every two years. The latest biennial study has just been published and finds natural gas supplies in the “Atlantic” area, which includes the Marcellus/Utica (is primarily the M-U), once again leads the country–now with the highest supplies ever.
9/5/19 NOTE: ODNR’s original percentages were incorrectly calculated. A day after releasing the wrong numbers, ODNR fixed the wrong numbers in their 2Q19 update. Frankly, we should have noticed the original error, and didn’t. The raw production numbers were right there before our eyes, yet we simply relied on ODNR’s incorrect percentages and drew the wrong conclusions. See below for the corrected numbers.
MDN is not a blog/news site about the myth of man-made global warming, but we do address the topic from time to time because the false belief of man-caused warming is at the root of opposition to fossil fuels and shale energy. We’re accused of being Luddites. Not with the times. Out of touch. Climate deniers. We say we’re simply seeing the issue clearly. A recent article brings into focus for everyone how the masses have been lied to by media and leftist scientists. There is no global warming happening–at least not because of mankind–since 2005. We have incontrovertible proof…