Impressive 2018 Marcellus Growth Not So Impressive Because of DUCs?
Our lead story today is about Gulfport Energy which highlights some exciting news: This year (in 2018) Gulfport will fund their entire drilling budget out of the cash flow the company generates from selling gas/oil/NGLs (see Gulfport Energy Continues Focus on Utica for 2018, No Borrowing). Thing is, Gulfport isn’t the only Marcellus/Utica driller to advertise the fact that this year they are “living within their means” and not borrowing. Others include Range Resources, EQT and Antero Resources. Wow! We’re finally profitable!! Or are we? MDN spotted some analysis by a hedge fund manager. Writing on the Seeking Alpha investor’s website, Josh Young says (in our words) “hold on a minute” with respect to M-U drillers appearing to be able to grow production without borrowing. Why is Josh not convinced with this good news? Because when you dig deeper into the numbers, you find that “organic growth within cash flow is further from reach” because drillers are using DUCs to spend less on drilling, and grow production, than they otherwise would be. A DUC is a Drilled but UnCompleted well. Many times drillers will drill the initial hole in the ground, but then not “complete” (or frack) the well. Why do that? For a variety of reasons. The biggest reason is usually because the commodity price of gas (or oil, depending on the well) is not favorable. Rather than lose the lease (an expensive proposition), drillers will begin the process by drilling, and then leaving, the well, returning later to complete it when prices go up again. Josh’s thesis is that by using DUC inventory drillers aren’t really funding the entire budget from current year cash flow, because some of the money was spent in a previous year to drill the well. They are, in essence, still borrowing–from a different year. Josh estimates an average of 20% of the “new” wells coming online are DUCs and not truly new wells funded by current year dollars–meaning these companies aren’t as “profitable” as they may seem. Does he have a point? Is it all just financial mumbo jumbo? You decide…
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The following guest post was written by Rick Hiduk:
Cabot Oil & Gas is a unique company. To date, Cabot produces ~2.5% of the U.S.’ entire natural gas production out of a single northeastern Pennsylvania county: Susquehanna. One company, one county, 2.5% of all our natural gas production. It’s mind-blowing! No wonder they are called Wall Street’s natural gas unicorn (see 
A little-known (outside of northeast Pennsylvania) anti-driller, Vera Scroggins, was fined $1,000 in April 2015 in Susquehanna County court (see 
Cabot Oil & Gas is tired of being sued, and slandered, by people like Dimock resident Ray Kemble and his ambulance-chasing lawyers. So in August Cabot sued back–for $5 million (see 
Yesterday America’s natural gas and oil industry announced “a landmark partnership”–called the Environmental Partnership–to “accelerate improvements to environmental performance in operations across the country.” How will they do that? The first area of focus will be to reduce methane and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The Environmental Partnership includes 26 natural gas and oil producers, including several major Marcellus/Utica drillers (Chesapeake Energy, Cabot Oil & Gas, Chevron and Southwestern Energy). The list of 26 produce a “significant portion” of American energy resources–we’d peg it at around 80% of all production. The participating companies (full list below) will begin implementing the voluntary program starting January 1, 2018. Did you get that? It’s VOLUNTARY. Yet they will do it and they will voluntarily hold themselves and each other accountable–because they are good corporate citizens and (gasp) actually care about the environment. They don’t need the jackboot of government to force them to do it. Here’s how profoundly biased mainstream media reports it: Oil Firms Pledge to Plug Methane Leaks in Bid to Burnish Image (Bloomberg News). Yep, according to the anti-everything people, these companies are only doing it to “burnish” their image. They don’t really care about the environment. They’re evil, nasty fossil fuel companies (icky). MDN readers know differently. These companies are respectable, providing jobs and investment in local communities AND protecting the environment in those same communities–where they live. The other side? Groups like the Sierra Club destroy jobs in the name of “protecting” Mom Earth…
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) is picking on Cabot Oil & Gas–or more properly, shaking them down for some cash. Yesterday the DEP announced it had reached an “agreement” with Cabot whereby Cabot will pay the DEP $99,000 “for air quality violations related to equipment at natural gas wells throughout Susquehanna County.” But that’s not all, Cabot failed to file some paperwork–a far more egregious violation for the DEP: “Cabot failed to submit complete compliance demonstration reports for 20 gas wells.” Bad, bad Cabot. Here’s news of the DEP’s latest shakedown of a company that has (so far) invested over $4.6 billion in a single northeast PA county…
Cabot Oil & Gas, one of our favorite Marcellus drillers, released its third quarter 2017 update on Friday. Some of the things we learn from the report and the analyst phone call held by Cabot’s top brass: Production grew another 12% during 3Q17. In the Marcellus, Cabot’s natural gas production averaged just over 2 billion cubic feet per day gross (Bcf/d). If you use U.S. Energy Information Administration numbers from the most recent monthly drilling report, Cabot’s 2 Bcf/d equals 8% of all Marcellus production, and 3.3% of all shale gas production in the U.S! That’s truly amazing, considering it all comes from Susquehanna County (with a couple of wells in neighboring Wyoming County), in northeast PA. Profitability returned in 3Q17 with net income of $32 million, versus a net loss of $16.7 million in 3Q16. In the Marcellus, Cabot drilled and completed 13 net wells and placed online into production 15 net wells. They now have 49 “fourth generation” wells online and producing at an average of 4.4 Bcf per 1,000 feet. They also have 12 “fifth generation” wells online. One of the highlights for Cabot during 3Q17 was the announcement that Williams is now building their $3 billion, 198-mile Atlantic Sunrise natural gas pipeline project. Cabot says when the pipeline is done in mid-2018, Cabot will flow 1 Bcf/d of gas to new markets. Cha ching! New markets equal higher prices and more profitability for the company. Below is the full 3Q17 update, followed by remarks from CEO Dan Dinges made during the analyst call…
Cabot Oil & Gas has long been one of our favorite Marcellus drillers. We are friends with several members of the Cabot team. We are impressed with their many acts of philanthropy in northeastern Pennsylvania–donating millions of dollars to worthy causes in the local community where they drill. As we’ve pointed out many times, Cabot somehow spins gold out of hay in Susquehanna County–producing something like 2.5% of all the natural gas that’s produced in the U.S. from a single county. They have some of the best rocks in the shale business. Cabot’s assets have not gone unnoticed on Wall Street, where investors and analysts call the company “a unicorn.” While the term unicorn as applied to a company can have several meanings, as applied to Cabot the meaning is clear: the company is rare, and desirable. In an Investor’s Business Daily article, several analysts gush about Cabot in light of the beginning of construction of the Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline project. Cabot will be the main shipper on the new pipeline. Analysts are predicting next year, in 2018, Cabot’s production will increase 23% from this year. And in 2019, one analyst says Cabot production will be up a whopping 47%! You begin to see why Cabot has a reputation as a unicorn on Wall Street…
Some big news that both Cabot Oil & Gas and the two families suing them seem to want to keep quiet: they’ve settled out of court. Brief background for those new to MDN and to the “Dimock” story: There were 14 families along the Carter Road area of Dimock Township, PA (Susquehanna County) that reportedly experienced turbidity in their water from methane migrating, supposedly from Cabot’s drilling operations nearby. The state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) investigated in 2010 and declared Cabot guilty and imposed stiff fines and requirements, including a requirement to install permanent water treatment systems at each home and even an offer to each of the families to pay twice what their property was worth at the time (see 
Yesterday we brought you the “Top 10” drillers in southwestern Pennsylvania, as ranked by the number of permits issued (see 
When a driller sinks a hole in the ground looking for one hydrocarbon–like natural gas–other hydrocarbons also come out of the ground. Sometimes its oil. Sometimes condensate. Sometimes natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, pentane, etc. In northeast and central Pennsylvania where the Marcellus Shale is prolific, most of what comes out of the ground is just methane–or natural gas. However, in the southwestern portion of PA, and in the northern panhandle of WV and on into eastern OH, it’s a different story. They are considered “wet gas” areas because (depending on the county) the wells are prolific NGL producers. Most NGLs, like propane, fetch much higher prices than plain old methane. Typically ethane is the NGL that mostly comes out of the ground, but for many drillers ethane can’t (yet) be sold, so it’s considered a “waste” product, mixed into the methane stream to get rid of it. But that’s changing. There are now pipelines to carry ethane to facilities in both Philadelphia and to a cracker plant in Canada. There’s even a pipeline for ethane (and other NGLs) that goes all the way to the Gulf Coast (ATEX, Appalachia to Texas). Some of the largest Marcellus/Utica drillers now have markets for their NGLs, so they are ramping up production and selling more NGLs. In fact, six of the eight largest M-U drillers increased their NGL production in the second quarter of 2017 compared to 2Q16. Which six increased, and which two decreased NGL production last quarter?…
Exactly one week ago MDN brought you the exclusive news of WHO is selling a bunch of conventional wells and leases (and pipelines) located in West Virginia, Ohio and Virginia to Carbon Natural Resources (see 
Carbon Natural Gas Company, through its affiliate Carbon Appalachian Company, teased in a press release issued yesterday that the company has just completed the acquisition of “natural gas producing properties and related facilities” located “predominantly in the State of West Virginia” for $21.5 million. The release does not identify the seller–but MDN believes we know who it is: Cabot Oil & Gas. We supply our evidence below. Carbon Natural Gas is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company (i.e. “driller”) that owns, operates and develops oil and gas properties in the Appalachian, Illinois and Ventura Basin areas of the U.S. Most of the wells they own and operate are conventional. However, in April the company began dipping its toe into unconventional shale as well (see 
We have to confess, we are not only shocked, but somewhat distressed at news we are reading that Cabot Oil & Gas is considering all options, including a sale of its Marcellus acreage in Susquehanna County, PA. To be fair, and to keep it in balance, it seems that the company would prefer to add to its Marcellus acreage, rather than sell it. However, chief financial officer Scott Schroeder said at a conference in Denver yesterday that all options are on the table, including a Marcellus acreage sale “if the terms are right.” MDN editor Jim Willis lives next door to Susquehanna County (and regularly visits Montrose, PA), and knows landowners in the county signed with Cabot. You have to understand how fundamentally Cabot has changed the county, by investing $1.5 billion into the pockets of landowners over the past 10 years, along with spending another $3.1 billion to do the drilling (see