U.S. Begins Winter with Most Natural Gas in Storage Since 2016
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states ended the natural gas injection season (Apr 1 – Oct 31) with 3,922 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the equivalent of 3.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). U.S. inventories are starting winter 2024–25 with the most natural gas since 2016, which is typically bearish for natgas prices. The more supply you have with the same demand, the more prices will decrease. However, weather is the big unknown variable. A cold winter could quickly drain supplies and lead to higher prices. Read More “U.S. Begins Winter with Most Natural Gas in Storage Since 2016”
According to a Reuters analyst, natural gas prices in Asia, Europe, and North America have climbed by 30% to 50% in 2024 and are likely to keep rising over the coming months in early 2025 as forecasts for cold weather trigger higher heating demand in key consumer hubs. Although Europe entered the winter with “full” gas stocks, Europe and Asia are already looking to restock by buying more natgas (LNG), spurring demand for LNG. That should ensure gas traders will remain bullish (pushing prices higher) until the upcoming winter is over. Gas prices “may have little scope to retreat until well into 2025.” We like the sound of that! 
In June, we told you that a once-respected oil and gas consultancy had become a partisan purveyor of pap (see 
Rystad Energy, based in Norway, is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, analytics, and consultancy services to clients exposed to the energy industry across the globe. In an article published by OilPrice.com, Rystad analysts make this bold claim: “Triggered by incoming US President Donald Trump, the next four years could prime the liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets for a golden era.” Look for the Trump administration to “accelerate US LNG infrastructure expansion through deregulation and faster permitting, bolstering global supply.” After years of uncertainty about U.S. LNG thanks to a dithering President Biden, someone with demonstrable cognitive decline, LNG is “back” under Trump, and global markets are delighted. 
The Baker Hughes national rig count dropped another rig last week and now sits at 582. The national count continues to be rangebound between 581 and 589 since June. Slicing the national count slightly differently—by oil-focused vs. gas-focused rigs—oil rigs fell by two to 477 last week, their lowest since July, while gas rigs rose by one to 100. Last week, all three Marcellus/Utica states maintained the same count for the third week in a row, with PA operating 15 active rigs and Ohio and West Virginia operating 10 rigs each, for a combined 35 rigs. That’s the third week in a row the M-U has operated 35 rigs. It feels like the doom and gloom is finally starting to lift. 
As we’ve stated many times, we’re not fans of so-called “net zero.” Net zero emissions refer to balancing the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted into the atmosphere with an equivalent amount of GHG removed, resulting in no net increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Scope 1 and 2 emissions are part of the broader framework defined by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, which divides emissions into three categories (Scopes 1, 2, and 3) based on their source. We told you in October that EQT Corporation had achieved net zero for Scopes 1 and 2 about a year earlier than expected (see 
The volume of natural gas flowing to U.S. LNG export facilities on Friday was on track to hit 14.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf), just shy of the all-time high of 14.7 Bcf recorded one year ago, in December 2023. The reason for the near-record high is that all LNG export facilities, including the up down up down up down Freeport LNG facility, were firing on all cylinders. Two weeks ago, one of Freeport’s three trains tripped off (see 
It’s funny how Big Tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, and others—all of them virtue-signalers—are willing to dump their virtue signaling (dump their insistence on using “green” energy) when it begins to affect the bottom line. We’re seeing it now with AI (artificial intelligence) and data centers. Big Tech needs power to run AI, and it needs it NOW (over the next several years). Big Tech is coming to the realization that hillsides full of ugly solar panels and windmills are not the solution but the problem. Solar and wind energy are intermittent (i.e., unreliable), and the existing power grid is about at maximum right now. So what is Big Tech now doing after trashing fossil energy for most of the last decade? Big Tech is looking at gas-fired power plants once again as the solution to meet their power needs. Welcome back to sanity and reality, Big Tech. 
You’ve heard of the Holy Trinity, right? Father, Son, and Holy Spirit. The three largest LNG exporting countries in the world, the U.S. (#1), Australia (#2), and Qatar (#3), are referred to as the LNG Trinity. Together, all three countries represent roughly 60% of all LNG exported on the planet. However, each country has its own strategy, politics, and approach to the market. How are they similar, and how are they different? 
We don’t begin to get excited about the price of natural gas unless and until it’s above $3/MMBtu and it stays there for a while. We’re there. Yesterday, the “front month” contract for NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas closed up 6.2 cents (1.8%) at $3.43/MMBtu. Over the past two days, the price closed up 30.2 cents (9.65%). Yesterday’s closing price was a 52-week high. Finally. Why the dramatic increase? Weather. 
In October, MDN told you about a Congressional investigation looking into the Department of Energy’s use of a prematurely released “study” as an excuse to “pause” (i.e., ban) new LNG export approvals (see 
In the spirit of doing the maximum amount of damage to the fossil fuel industry before being pried out of their cushy offices in the D.C. swamp, the Biden EPA last week proposed yet another onerous new regulation aimed at strangling natural gas-fired power plants. This latest attack ups the limits on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from most new, modified, and reconstructed gas-fired power plants. It’s a safe bet that the incoming Trump EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, will withdraw the proposed regulation before it can be implemented. So, at least there’s that. However, the new reg comes from a “sue-and-settle” court case with the odious Sierra Club in 2022 that requires a new reg to be in place by Nov. 2025. 
In October 2023, the Biden Department of Energy (DOE) published a new rule that cracks down on gas furnaces in homes, essentially phasing out many existing models and requiring new ones to meet onerous new standards (see 
The incoming Trump administration will have a big emphasis on natural gas, including LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports. Lazy journalists and lazy economists try to scare the general public into believing more (new) LNG exports from this country will cause the price of domestic natural gas to skyrocket. Their arguments presume no increase in natgas production, which is a fallacy. There are many reasons why the price of natgas isn’t going to skyrocket from more LNG export approvals.