Research

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    U.S. Natural Gas Production Dipped by 1 Bcf/d in March

    Bentek EnergyIn February the natural gas industry in the Lower 48 States made history by hitting record high production (see US NatGas Production Hits Record High in February – 73.3 Bcf/d). What about March? Bentek Energy, the energy analytics divison of Platts, has just issued its estimate of production for March. The country slipped, losing about 1 billion cubic feet per day in production. Although all of the major shale-producing basins contributed, Platts analysts say it was mostly 50/50–about 50% of the decrease came from less production in the Marcellus/Utica, and the other 50% from Texas…
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    Radical Fractivist Group Tries to Bully EPA Members into Silence

    no bullyingRadical fractivism brooks no dissent. You either agree with them that fracking is evil and from the devil himself, or they WILL attack you–politically, professionally, personally–anyway they can. In other words, fractivists are bullies and not interested in free speech. If you have an opposing viewpoint or try to support your views with science and facts, you’re immediately shut down. That’s how it works with these vicious fossil fuel opponents. We’ve been tracking and telling you about an issue that first began in June 2015. The federal Environmental Protection Agency, after four years of study, concluded that fracking does not contaminate groundwater supplies (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). Such a thing could not stand in the twisted minds of fractivists. They began demanding the EPA change the outcome of its scientific conclusions. Don’t like the science? Just change it! That’s the sentiment of fractivists. Bowing to pressure from the political left, the Obama EPA decided to have an internal board of 31 people–the EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB), perform a review of the study. You can guess where this is going. The fix was in with the SAB (see EPA Science Advisory Board Engaging in Fraud re Fracking Study). However, five brave, independent-thinking members of the SAB disagreed, and published their disagreement with the vote taken by the board (see 5 Members of Internal EPA Committee Think Fracking Study Correct). Those five members are now being bullied by Big Green groups, who are trying to silence them for expressing their opinion, an opinion different than theirs…
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    Brookings Institute Turns Fractivist Whore re Severance Tax Report

    BrookingsTalk about intellectual dishonesty and academic incest…The Rockefellar family, behind the latest initiatives to force investors to divest from so-called fossil fuel companies and funders of numerous wacko Big Green initiatives, along with former members of the radical PennFuture organization who now work for far-left PA. Gov. Tom Wolf (PA Secretary of Conservation and Natural Resource Cindy Dunn, and PA Secretary of the Dept. of Environment Protection John Quigley), funded and contributed to a new report from the Brookings Institution that calls on PA to adopt a severance tax. Brookings is a once-proud organization that has stooped to pimping itself out like a cheap whore to anyone with money. They have the nerve to call it a new “study”–like it’s somehow an academic pursuit, beyond questioning–when in fact it’s nothing more than propaganda meant to pressure PA into adopting a Marcellus-killing severance tax. There’s nothing scholarly about it…
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    Fossil Fuel Insider to Receive Honorary Doctorate from Dartmouth

    Daniel YerginThis will not sit well with anti-fossil fuel eggheads in the elite halls of Ivy League institutions. One of their own, Dartmouth College, will confer an honorary doctorate in June on one of the oil and gas industry’s consummate insiders–Daniel Yergin. Yergin is vice chairman of consulting powerhouse IHS, and the author of the bestselling book “The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power,” for which he won a Pulitzer Prize. Yergin’s most recent bestseller is “The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World.” The New York Times calls Yergin, “America’s most influential energy pundit.” He is unabashedly pro-oil and gas. And now he’s going to be honored at the Darmouth graduation ceremony where he will (even worse!) deliver the commencement address…
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    Report: Drilling Hasn’t Strained Water Supplies in River Basin

    subbasmap_smallThe Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), charged with overseeing the health and use of the Susquehanna River (nation’s 16th largest river), has just issued a new report that examines the activities of the Commission surrounding its management of water use by the natural gas industry from 2008-2013. The report, titled “Water Use Associated with Natural Gas Shale Development: An Assessment of Activities Managed by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission July 2008 through December 2013” (full copy below) concludes that Marcellus drilling has not strained water supplies in the Susquehanna River Basin. The SRBC, unlike the DRBC (Delaware River Basin Commission) has responsibly managed water resources in its region and has not interfered with shale drilling–but rather has worked with drillers to successfully manage water resources. The DRBC, on the other hand, has been paralyzed, both without and within the organization, into blocking shale drilling within its jurisdiction. Here’s a report from the functional SRBC (as opposed to the dysfunctional DRBC)–a quasi-governmental organization that knows what it’s doing…
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    Natural Gas Production Hits All Time High in 2015, Thx to Marc/Utica

    According to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. natural gas production reached a record high level of 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015. That’s an increase of 5% from the previous year, even though natural gas prices remained at historically low prices. Production from five states responsible for the lion’s share of the growth. Three of those states were Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia–the Marcellus/Utica. The other two were Oklahoma and North Dakota. In other words, Marcellus/Utica production increased so much it offset lower production in other regions…
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    EIA: Winter Ends with Record High NatGas Storage on Hand

    EIAIn the natural gas world there are two seasons: winter (when you use natural gas) and summer (when you “inject” or store natural gas). The “winter strip” goes from November to March, and the “summer strip” runs from April through October. Storage levels are a key factor in the pricing of natural gas. Economics 101: the price for commodities like natgas is purely a function of supply and demand. If you have more supply than demand, the price goes down. In the northeast part of the country we just came through the mildest (temperature-wise) winter in a generation. We used a lot less natgas than we normally would. That means the gas sitting in storage didn’t get drawn down nearly as much as it usually does. That’s what you would expect, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has confirmed it. We ended the winter heating season at the end of March with “record high levels” of natgas sitting in storage. And now we begin the process of storing more. If all other factors remain equal–meaning there’s no new or sudden increase in demand this summer–it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how record high storage levels will affect the price. Here’s the EIA with their latest on storage…
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    EIA STEO Predicts Summer 2016 to See Record High Natgas Power Gen

    EIAOnce a month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA issued their latest edition on Tuesday. We have a full copy below. We’ve grabbed out the section on natural gas because it includes a couple of key points: (1) U.S. natural gas inventories just finished the winter heating season at their highest level ever, and are expected to be at a record high at the start of next winter heating season in November. (2) This summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach a record high. Here’s the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report…
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    Study: $546 Billion Needed in Gas/Oil/NGL Infrastructure by 2035!

    INGAAForget about drilling, infrastructure is where it’s at baby! That’s our words summarizing a new study just released by the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA). The new study, titled “North American Midstream Infrastructure Through 2035: Leaning into the Headwinds” (full copy below) says the U.S. and Canada need to invest $546 billion (real 2015$) total over the 21-year period from 2015 to 2035–or $26 billion per year–in natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids infrastructure. Natural gas infrastructure includes “gathering and transmission pipelines, compressors, laterals, gas-lease equipment, processing, gas storage and liquefied natural gas export facilities” (NGI). Our tongue-in-cheek opening statement isn’t completely true. You need drilling or sooner or later you have no gas to flow through the infrastructure. However, for the time being, investors (and engineers and construction firms, etc.) need to pay attention to infrastructure buildout…
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    Everything You Wanted to Know About LNG – in One Report

    IGUThe International Gas Union (IGU) released their “2016 World LNG Report” at the LNG18 conference yesterday taking place in Perth, Australia. The report (we have a full copy below) shows global LNG, or liquefied natural gas, is set to grow. It will play an increasingly important role in the world’s energy mix. In addition to giving a great overview of the worldwide LNG industry, the report contains some really cool appendices, including a list of active liquefaction (i.e. export) plants, a list of export plants under construction, a list of receiving terminals (and terminals under construction), and a list of LNG ships that cart it from point A to point B. LNG, as we’ve said a number of times, will be an important market for Marcellus/Utica drillers. We look at this report like “everything you wanted to know about LNG”…
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    EIA April DPR: Utica Production Slows, Marcellus Loss Slows

    EIAYesterday MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. First interesting observation about the report just issued: The rate of production decline in the Marcellus has gone down. That is, although the Marcellus is predicted to produce less shale gas in May than it will in April, the amount of less production has decreased–meaning we may be close to equilibrium where the Marcellus produces around the same amount of gas each month, month after month. Second interesting observation: Utica natgas production has continued to grow each month while the other six plays have declined in production each month. The EIA is predicting that in May the Utica will not grow by much–just 1 million cubic feet per day of additional production. Essentially, Utica production of natgas is now flat month over month. Will it also go in the red when the next monthly report comes out?…
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    Syracuse U Study Finds Methane Preexists in Most Water Wells

    Syracuse UniversityNot long ago researchers at the University of Cincinnati that found fracking in Carroll County, OH taking place near water wells did not affect those wells (see Antis Not Happy with Results of OH Fracking Study They Funded). You would think those who claim they care (more than you and me) about the environment would be thrilled to learn that Mom Earth is not being harmed. But no. The anti-fossil fuel nutters funding the study promptly cut off any more funds for the researchers (see Anti Groups Abruptly Cut Funding for OH Fracking Study). A month later and another research study has been released–this one from Syracuse University. The new study, titled “Dissolved methane in Shallow groundwater of the Appalachian Basin: Results from the Chesapeake Energy predrilling geochemical database,” finds by analyzing 19,278 water samples (including samples from wells in Ohio) the same thing the Cinci study found: methane already exists in many water wells, in large quantities, long before any drilling ever happens. That’s bad news for anti-fossil fuelers. Science and facts just keep getting in the way of the fictional fairy tales they tell themselves…
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    HBK 2016 Energy Assessment, Predictions for OH/PA on Pipes, Taxes

    HBK EnergyCPA/consulting firm HBK (Hill, Barth & King) is fresh out with their 2016 Energy Assessment–an analysis of energy trends, opportunities, challenges and risks. In the assessment (full copy below) HBK Energy Advisors (a division of HBK) weighs in on issues like Obama’s odious Clean Power Plan, renewable energy, LNG and more. Of particular interest to MDN is a series of predictions made not in the official assessment, but in an accompanying blog post on the HBK website. The analysts make a series of predictions for Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey and Florida. The first prediction for Ohio is that pipeline work in the Buckeye State will increase, mostly due to the NEXUS pipeline. Which we find interesting. Just last week we told you an analyst from Wood Mackenzie predicted the NEXUS won’t get built (see Utica Event: OH Landowners Will Lose $6.5B in 5 Yrs, NEXUS Nixed). Now we have another analyst/company saying it will get built! Have a look at HBK’s predictions and see if you agree with them…
    Read More “HBK 2016 Energy Assessment, Predictions for OH/PA on Pipes, Taxes”

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    List of 59 Oil & Gas Companies Filing for Bankruptcy in 2015/2016

    Last November MDN brought you a list of 36 North America drillers that had, as of that time, declared bankruptcy (see List of 36 Oil & Gas Companies that Filed for Bankruptcy in 2015). The law firm compiling the list, Haynes and Boone, is back with an updated version. Since that time more have fallen to low commodity prices for oil and gas. There are now 59 drillers who have declared bankruptcy–42 last year and (so far) 17 in 2016. Fortunately, the only Marcellus/Utica name we spot on the list is Magnum Hunter Resources, which filed for bankruptcy back in December (see Sad Day: Magnum Hunter Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy). Here’s the latest edition of Haynes and Boone’s “Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor”…
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    Authors of UK Fracking Study Dismayed that Fracking is Safe

    A group of UK researchers/professors have just published a new study on fracking and traffic-related environmental impacts from it. The study is titled “Investigating the traffic-related environmental impacts of hydraulic-fracturing (fracking) operations” (full copy below) and appears in the journal Environment International. The authors conclude that heavy truck traffic from fracking operations has a negligible impact on the environment. Here’s the funny part: the authors aren’t all that happy with their own findings. But to their credit, the researchers don’t screw with the data and attempt to hide or change their findings–as some hucksters do from American universities like Duke and Cornell…
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    Rig Counts for World, US Continue Steep Slide in March; M-U Down 1

    We’ve now gone beyond cutting into the bone and sinew with rig count losses–we’re now severing limbs. February’s Baker Hughes rig counts were awful, with both international and U.S. counts hitting record lows (see Rig Counts for World, US & Marcellus/Utica Crash in February). Somehow, it got worse in March. International rig counts went down 33 from 1,018 counted in February to 985 in March. In the U.S., rig counts went from 532 in February to 478 in March–a loss of 54 (10%). Month after month it just keeps going lower. Will the patient survive the carnage? On a more positive note, the number of rigs in PA, OH and WV cumulatively (the Marcellus-Utica) went down by just 1 rig. PA’s count went up 1 rig, OH’s count went down 2 rigs, and WV’s count stayed the same. Here’s the details…
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