Research

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    Which Marcellus/Utica Drillers are Part of the “Thousand Club”?

    It’s difficult to compare apples with apples when it comes to evaluating how productive, or profitable, a hydrocarbon-producing well is. We typically think of wells as “oil wells” or “natural gas wells” or perhaps “wet gas (NGL) wells.” While there are some wells that produce almost all natgas or almost all oil, etc., most wells produce multiple hydrocarbons. Oil wells in the Permian Basin or Eagle Ford Shale (in TX) produce natural gas along with the oil coming out of the well. Many Marcellus and Utica wells in southwestern PA and eastern OH produce very profitable quantities of natural gas liquids, a mish mash of ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, and pentane. And don’t forget condensate (natural gasoline). So how do you compare the relative output/profitability/production for different “types” of wells? One way is to convert all of those hydrocarbons into one hydrocarbon–oil. Specifically, barrels of oil. Once you convert all hydrocarbons into barrels of oil, you have a way to compare apples to apples–comparing wells located in the same shale play or comparing wells from one play with wells from another. Recently the sharp analysts at investment firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. ran the numbers to convert and compare wells across different plays. They issued a report showing wells that belong to the “Thousand Club”–wells producing at least 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Where are the most such wells located? The Eagle Ford Shale, the Bakken Shale, and yes, the Marcellus and Utica Shale. Which drillers are in the club?…
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    EPA Takes First Step to Renounce its Own Fracking/Water Research

    junk-science.jpgAs we pointed out just last month, the so-called “scientists” who belong to the federal Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Science Advisory Board have begun the long process of getting the EPA to change the outcome of its 4-year study of fracking that concludes fracking doesn’t pollute groundwater (see Will EPA Whore Itself to Antis and Change Fracking Water Study?). The EPA originally launched a 2-year study, that later turned into a 4-year study, in which they analyzed 950 studies related to fracking. The EPA also designed and completed 9 of their own studies. At the end of this arduous and scientifically rigorous process, the EPA concluded, in a published report in June 2015, that fracking does not pollute water (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). Ever since the EPA report was issued anti-drilling radicals have demanded the EPA change the outcome of its science (see Anti Groups Try to Convince EPA They Got it Wrong with Water Study). True science doesn’t change nor cave to political pressure. A few dozen members of what is called the EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB) released a draft a letter (copy below) yesterday. The letter calls into question the conclusion that fracking doesn’t pollute water. Voila. Another example of “science” being corrupted by political philosophy…
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    API 2016 State of American Energy Report

    Earlier this week the American Petroleum Institute (API) released its annual report, the State of American Energy (full copy below). Several themes are prominent in the report: shale energy’s creation of jobs, the economic growth we’ve experienced due to shale energy, and the fact we are now more secure than we’ve been in generations with respect to energy. We’re far less dependent on foreign oil than we were just a few years ago. That’s great news!…
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    2015 NatGas Prices Traded at Lowest Level Since 1999

    Anecdotally we know that the price of natural gas in the U.S. as bought and sold along hundreds of locations on major pipelines was low in 2015. At least it seemed low. Story after story told us it was low. The price of gas as traded at the Henry Hub delivery point in southern Louisiana is used as a proxy for “the price” of natgas nationally–and it was low. But what does the actual data tell us? According to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data confirms what everyone already “felt” was the case: the price of natgas in 2015 traded at its lowest level since 1999. Here’s the proof…
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    IHS Study: M&A Deals Plunged in 2015, So Did Shale Investment

    No doubt about it, 2015 was a tough year in the shale energy industry. With shale energy, investment happens when drillers decide to drill holes in the ground. Without a hole, money doesn’t get spent. And when money isn’t being spent on drilling, other businesses along the supply chain begin to see their revenue dry up. Global consulting and research firm IHS, or Information Handling Service, has just published the “IHS Energy Global Upstream M & A Review.” As part of their promotion of the new study (must be a customer to score a copy), IHS released a detailed summary of their findings. One finding in particular stood out to MDN: In 2014 unconventional/shale drillers spent $75 billion on upstream (exploration & production) activities. In 2015 that number plunged to less than $30 billion–a 60% drop. That statistic more than any illustrates what happened to the oil and gas industry in 2015. Here’s more great insights from IHS on what happened in 2015…
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    Industry Navel Gazing – Survey, Opinions of What’s Ahead in 2016

    MDN spotted a couple of “what’s coming in 2016” reports. One report shares conclusions from a survey of 100 oil and gas company CFOs (Chief Financial Officers, or “the money guys”) conducted in September/November last year. What do industry money people say is coming in 2016? Read it below. The second report was just issued by Moody’s Investors Service. Several Moody’s analysts offer their predictions about what lies ahead for the oil and gas industry this year. We call these kinds of reports “industry naval gazing” as they tend to be focused on our specific piece of the energy industry (oil and gas) to the exclusion of the complex world that exists outside of our own industry. Still, such reports have their place and can often shed light on what may lay ahead on the road we will all travel on the way to 2017…
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    Morningstar Outlook/Predictions for Oil & Gas in 2016 & Beyond

    Morningstar, Inc. is one of, if not THE leading providers of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Morningstar’s analysts keep a close eye on many different sectors, including the energy sector. Yesterday Morningstar published its Quarter-End Insights for the oil and gas sector, which include not only a look back at what happened, but predicts what they see coming in 2016 and beyond. Among Morningstar’s predictions: “Long-term” prices for oil will hit $70 per barrel for Brent crude and $64 per barrel for WTI. Near-term oil prices? They “could be ugly.” Morningstar recommends three specific E&Ps in which to invest. Two of them operate in the Marcellus…
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    DOE Study: More LNG Exports Don’t Mean Higher Prices at Home

    What would happen if the U.S. increased LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports from 12 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to 20 Bcf/d? A new report just published by the Dept. of Energy and researched by Rice University and Oxford Economics, titled “The Macroeconomic Impact of Increasing U.S. LNG Exports” (full copy below) finds that although prices for U.S. consumers may go up a little, what would happen is that the production pie would grow and most of the delta (the difference between 12 and 20 Bcf/d) would come from new production. In other words, it’s a win/win. More jobs, more money flowing into the U.S., while at the same time very little rise in gas prices here at home–even if we ratchet up exports significantly…
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    Duke U Study: Property Values Drop When Marcellus Drilling Begins

    Once or twice a year anti-fossil fuel “researchers” at Duke University issue another “publish or perish” term paper that takes aim at the Marcellus/Utica and call it a study. A few weeks ago the latest in a string of such biased reports was issued by Duke–this one claiming that property values go down when Marcellus Shale drilling comes to a community. Three researchers wrote the report. One of the researchers is from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). The EDF is as anti-drilling as any of the far-left enviro-Nazi groups like the Sierra Club, Food & Water Watch, various Riverkeepers, et al. But the EDF usually tries to work with the industry, which often ostracizes them from the kooks on their left. It’s disappointing to see the EDF piling on in this latest sham study. The study is titled, “The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development” (full copy below). The problem for this study is that there are numerous other studies that look at property values and conclude the opposite–that property values go UP when drilling comes to an area. When you dig in to the the Duke study you’ll find that in some cases they did find property values increased, and other cases values decreased. We bring you this study to prepare you for the onslaught of sycophantic mainstream media stories that will mention it a time or two and then move on–typical “drive by” misinformation from the media where truth is the casualty…
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    OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook Paints a Rosy Price Picture

    There is nobody on the planet who watches the oil market more closely than OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is made up largely of tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorships who keep their general populations pacified by sharing some of the riches from oil sales with them via socialist government programs. While the leaders of OPEC countries often lie to each other and lie to the world, one thing they typically don’t lie about is the oil industry, where it’s headed–and their own very vital role in it. Last week OPEC released its annual 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO, full copy below), which outlines OPEC’s expectations for the global energy sector–in particular oil and gas–from now until 2040. One admission in the 2015 WOO: US oil production from shale plays will be “more robust” than OPEC had predicted as recently as last year. Another prediction in this year’s WOO: oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 (four short years from now) and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040 (15 short years from now). There are plenty of other interesting predictions and observations in this year’s WOO…
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    Lawsuit Forces NOAA to Disclose Climate Data Tampering

    It turns out that the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has something to hide with respect to the data it collects on so-called climate change. NOAA is the point agency in the United States for collecting weather and temperature data and disseminating that data for others to use. Science should be science–facts should be facts. But there’s been funny business going on inside of NOAA, and now they’re trying to cover it up. The so-called data coming from NOAA, it’s now being discovered, has been tampered with. Changed. Modified. Cherry-picked. Use whatever term you want. We’d call it scientific fraud. It took a lawsuit by the valiant organization Judicial Watch to force NOAA to release internal documents at NOAA that prove NOAA has been playing fast and loose with climate data…
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    Dela. Riverkeeper Attempts to Discredit PA DEP Shale Radiation Report

    Stay tuned for five feet of snow. No, it’s not a weather report, it’s the snow job THE Delaware Riverkeeper (i.e. Maya van Rossum) is attempting with respect to a research report issued by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP). In January 2015, the DEP filed a report following two years of intense study to determine whether/if/how much radiation exposure is an issue in shale drilling. While the DEP found there is sometimes some low levels of radiation, the report concluded there is “little harm” from radiation in shale drilling (for the study results, see PA DEP Completes Fracking Radiation Study, Concludes “Little Harm”). When real science is published that contradicts the political science of global warming advocates like Maya van Rossum, the real science must go. And so van Rossum hired a discredited scientist to produce a review of the January 2015 report by the DEP, calling it “inaccurate and incomplete.” Van Rossum dragged out Dr. Marvin Resnikoff, who was humiliatingly slapped down by none other than the U.S. Geological Survey in 2012 (see Radon Debate: USGS Responds to Marvin Resnikoff Accusation). Resnikoff is the scientist-for-hire van Rossum used in concocting the latest snow job coming from her outfit…
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    PA DEP Admits No Radiation in Ten Mile Creek, Closes Investigation

    rest of the storyHere’s a story most of the Democrat anti-drilling media won’t tell you–but we will. In 2014 Pennsylvania anti-drillers from a local chapter of the Izaak Walton League, a so-called conservation organization, attempted a smear job on the Marcellus Shale industry. They alleged that shale drillers were illegally dumping frack wastewater in an abandoned coal mine, the Clyde Mine, which sits near the Ten Mile Creek where the creek joins the Monongahela River. According to the smearmeisters, the illegally dumped wastewater was leaking out of the mine and into Ten Mile Creek (see Is Shale Wastewater Causing Radiation Spike in Ten Mile Creek?). They claimed testing they had done showed high levels of radioactivity that could not come from just acid mine drainage, that it is radioactivity typically seen in shale wastewater. Of course the allegations got a lot of media attention. The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) investigated and echoed their concerns with initial tests also showing high radioactivity. Except the testing done by the DEP, and the testing done by the Izaak Walton League, WAS THE WRONG TYPE OF TEST. They blew it. Researchers from West Virginia University came in and tested using the appropriate type of test and found no elevated radioactivity (see PA DEP Screws Up Water Test at Ten Mile Creek – Egg on Face). The DEP has just concluded six months of their own tests–the right type of tests–and guess what? They’ve also found there IS NO elevated radioactivity in Ten Mile Creek nor anywhere else in the area…
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    NatGas Production in Lower 48 Slips in November by Less than 1%

    Earlier this week Platts’ Bentek service issued their prediction for natural gas production in the lower 48 states for November. Platts says that total gas production averaged 71.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November, which is down less than 1% from production levels in October. The slightly lower production seemed to have surprised Bentek analysts who blame lack of pipeline takeaway capacity in the northeast for the down number. In fact, Bentek says that it is the northeast that is the star performer when it comes to production and whether production goes up or down, it will be because of the northeast. Here’s more of their expert analysis…
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    Will EPA Whore Itself to Antis and Change Fracking Water Study?

    The one great, huge, towering problem that anti-drillers have is that there is no scientific evidence that supports their wild claims that fracking contaminates water–which is their favorite lie to spread. When the Environmental Protection Agency arrived at the same conclusion–fracking doesn’t pollute water–after four years of studying it, that really took the wind out of the sails of rabid fossil fuel haters (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). The EPA reviewed research from over 950 studies and even conducted nine of their own primary studies. Conclusion: fracking doesn’t pollute water supplies. What’s a good fossil fuel hater to do? Pressure the EPA to change the outcome of their study. True science means nothing to liberals–science is not objective for them, it’s political, a tool to be used. The Independent Petroleum Association of America recognizes that and apparently has some intel that the EPA may bow to pressure and reverse its previous finding to state that fracking does cause harm to water supplies, contra to their four-year-long review and all of the facts that say otherwise. Will the EPA whore themselves for radical environmentalists and change course?…
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    Dartmouth Study: Fracking Causes Toxic Metal Wastewater

    We call attention to a newly published study from three researchers at Dartmouth College. The new research paper, recently published in the journal Applied Geochemistry, is titled, “Reductive weathering of black shale and release of barium during hydraulic fracturing” (sorry, we don’t have a full copy to share with you). In reading over the Dartmouth press release, it appears the researchers have found evidence that plain water itself, water without extra chemicals added to it, will, under pressure a mile or more down, facilitate or somehow combine with shale and cause barium to leach out of the shale. The research is based on samples from three drill cores from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and New York. Our understanding of just what they are saying is far from perfect. It seems to us the importance of what they claim to have found is that produced water, which is water that comes from the borehole long after the initial frack flowback water has returned to the surface, contains a lot of barium (and some mild radioactivity) and that produced water must be disposed of safely. You can’t just cart produced water to the local sewage treatment plant and drop it off. That seems to be what they’re saying with this research. You read the description for yourself and tell us what you think it says…
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