Research

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    IEA World Energy Outlook Predicts $80 Oil by 2020

    Each year the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a special World Energy Outlook report. The 2015 edition has just been published. This newest report examines the critical role of price for crude oil in “rebalancing” supply and demand. The authors note the process of rebalancing (getting to higher prices) is rarely a smooth adjustment. Indeed! In the central scenario of this year’s report, a tightening oil balance leads to a price around $80 per barrel by 2020–just five short years away (hang in there small independents!). The report also examines the conditions under which prices could stay lower for much longer, an all-to-real possibility. Below is a press release about the report and a copy of the Executive Summary for the report. Sadly they don’t release the full report for free–it will cost you €120 (~$129) for the PDF version, and €150 (~$161) for a paper copy…
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    EIA November DPR: Marcellus Production Down Again, Utica Increases

    Yesterday our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite government report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The November report predicts what production will show in the month of December for both oil and natural gas from the seven biggest commercial shale plays in the U.S. The numbers EIA predicts shows natural gas production dropping once again–down another 100 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) across all the plays combined. However, as with last month, the Utica Shale and Permian Basin are the exceptions–both predict an increase in natgas production for the month of December. Several major drillers have changed focus in the northeast from the Marcellus to the Utica (EQT and CONSOL Energy come to mind), which may help explain some of those numbers. The Permian is an oil play and doesn’t produce much natural gas–but since natgas comes out of the hole along with oil, and since oil drilling in the Permian is picking up lately–that explains why there’s an increase in “associated gas” for that play. Gas production in the mighty Marcellus continues to drop. It’s the biggest gas producer, so perhaps that’s why it’s dropping the most–down 215 Mmcf/d last month, and predicted to be down average 229 Mmcf/d in December…
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    Report: Fracking Reduces CO2 Emissions 13x Faster than Solar

    A new report out from the conservative think tank Manhattan Institute finds that fracking–and NOT so-called renewables like solar–is the “single most effective tool” for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The report, much to the consternation of the greenies, finds that fracking helped reduce CO2 emissions 13 times faster than solar power. Did you know that solar and wind together generated LESS electricity in the first half of 2015 than they did in the first half of 2014? Here’s the report the greens don’t want you to know about…
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    Bought & Paid For: NY Anti-Drilling Researcher Gets $1.25M Grant

    There’s a new thing going around–it’s called “advocacy science.” And boy oh boy does it ever pay big bucks! Here’s how it works: Attend an Ivy League school like Cornell, do some “research” with a pre-determined outcome (i.e. ignore real science), wait a few years–and collect $1.25 million?! That’s how it worked out for Elaine Hill, currently a University of Rochester Medical Center researcher who did sloppy research that she published as a Cornell student (without peer review) in 2012. The “study” found babies born near fracked wells are allegedly more likely to have low birth weights than those not born near fracked wells (see her paper here). Later studies that grabbed headlines used her work as its foundation (see MSC Devastating Critique of “Low Birth Weight Near Fracking” Study). Hill is now being richly rewarded for her efforts in aiding the anti-drilling cause. The National Institutes of Health (your tax dollars at work) have just awarded Hill–yes Hill, one person–a staggering $1.25 million grant to do more “research.” In essence, she’s set for life. Bought and paid for. A millionaire. All it took was trading on the name of Cornell University and ignoring real science to get there. Here’s the kicker–her degree isn’t in biochemistry or biology or medicine or any hard science. Hill’s degree is in economics…
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    New BP Technology Report Predicts O&G Supplies will Double by 2050

    researchPeak Oil theorists like Art Berman won’t be happy with the latest report just published by oil giant BP. BP and other large energy companies publish annual energy outlook studies that we’ve highlighted in the past (see BP’s Annual Energy Report: Smallest Demand Increase since 1990s). For the first ever, BP has just published a report called the BP Technology Outlook (full copy below) that reveals much of their internal research on new technologies that will keep energy supplies plentiful and affordable, “enough to meet projected demand many times over” according to the study’s authors. While BP pays much lip service to so-called renewable sources of energy in this new study, here’s the part that will give Berman and other Peak Oil fanatics heartburn: “applying today’s best technologies to discover oil and gas resources could significantly increase ‘proved reserves’ from 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to 4.8 trillion barrels – nearly double the 2.5 trillion barrels required to meet projected cumulative global demand through to 2050.” Did you catch that? New tech available today can and will double the amount of recoverable oil and gas. So much for Peak Oil and Gas! We’re awash in it and will remain so for generations…
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    Dartmouth Research: Fracking’s Benefits Extend Hundreds of Miles

    crickets chripingIt’s always fascinating for us to see which universities tout the research papers published by their professors and students, and which don’t. And which papers they decide to promote, and which they don’t. Publish a study that knocks fracking as somehow damaging the environment? That’s worth a full-blown press release and calls to the New York Times to see if you can get some juicy PR. Publish a paper that concludes, oh, the economic benefits of fracking actually extend out for hundreds of miles? Not a peep. In fact such a study was released by Dartmouth researchers called “Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution” (full copy below). The report concludes: “Every million dollars of oil and gas extracted produces $66,000 in wage income, $61,000 in royalty payments, and 0.78 jobs within the county. Outside the immediate county but within the region, the economic impacts are over three times larger. Within 100 miles of the new production, one million dollars generates $243,000 in wages, $117,000 in royalties, and 2.49 jobs.” You might think such good news would be emblazoned on major newspapers across the country. Nope. Nothing. Nada. Zippo. That kind of objective research, that finds fracking benefits society, doesn’t fit the liberal bias of mainstream media. So they ignore it. If they don’t cover it, it essentially doesn’t exist. What a shame…
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    Anti Groups Try to Convince EPA They Got it Wrong with Water Study

    wrongHoping to get one more squeeze and a few more drops of juice out of news that’s now years old, the odious Earthworks and equally odious Food & Water Watch organized a protest rally in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday and trotted out the same old tired, lying anti-drillers from Dimock, PA, Pavillion, WY and Parker County, TX to “demand” that the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) simply dump the findings of their four-year study that concluded fracking doesn’t pollute water supplies (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). Anti-fossil fuel organizations like Earthworks and FWW about had a conniption fit when the EPA announced that after turning over every stone, pebble and spec of sand, they couldn’t find proof that fracking contaminates groundwater supplies. So the only thing they could do was to condemn the EPA. But therein lies the problem–because the EPA colludes with these same groups on sue-and-settle court cases all the time. They’re friends. They’re buddies. So falling out with the EPA leads to being conflicted. The planets are not properly aligned. How to resolve it? Convince the EPA with protests and pressure that they were wrong. They did it wrong. They ignored some of their own research and reseachers and came to the wrong conclusion. “Just admit you were wrong and everything will be OK. We’ll forgive you.” That’s what the “rally” was about on Wednesday in DC…
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    British Think Tank Study Refutes Shale Fugitive Methane Claims

    researchThe Centre for Policy Studies, a British think tank similar to our own Heritage Foundation (conservative), has just published a new study that says so-called fugitive methane coming from shale gas production is “seriously over-estimated.” You may recall the falling-down-laughing claim by Cornell professors Robert Howarth and Tony Ingraffea who claimed burning coal is better for the environment than burning natural gas, largely because of the fugitive methane issue (see New Cornell University Study Says Shale Gas Extraction Worse for Global Warming Than Coal). Howarth and Ingraffea’s claim was roundly rejected by research study after research study, but the meme was established because Howarth and Ingraffea are funded, in part, by the anti-drilling Park Foundation, and Park (with deep pockets) pressures media outlets to repeat this drivel. The Centre for Policy Studies has added yet another masterful study that kicks the legs out from under Howarth/Ingraffea’s claims about fugitive methane leaking out all over the place. It isn’t…
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    Expensive Audit Tells PGW to Buy More PA Shale Gas to Save Money

    consultant moneyHere’s a thought: Why doesn’t the Philadelphia Gas Works (PGW) convert more of the gas it buys to take gas from the nearby Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale and dump buying gas from the Gulf Coast–because PA’s gas is closer and much cheaper, it will result in lower costs for PGW and lower bills for consumers. Now, where do we go to collect our $1.5 million consulting fee for that fine idea? The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission contracted with Michigan consulting firm Schumaker & Company, Inc. to perform a top to bottom audit of the PGW. While we don’t know how much the audit cost, we did find a 2008 proposal from Schumaker to New York State touting the same kind of audit, with a total price tag (back then) of $1.3 million. So we figured with a little inflation the audit just turned in by Schumaker must have run at least $1.5M. The chief, number one suggestion by Schumaker? PGW can save $6-$7 million a year by buying more of its gas (60% more) from the Marcellus Shale region, upping it from the current 33% they buy from the Marcellus now. Maybe we should get into the consulting business. Sure pays better than blogging!…
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    Databook Vol. 2: List of 101 Infrastructure Projects Worth $83B!

    db2015_all3vol_cover_smallMDN has just published Volume 2 of the 2015 Marcellus and Utica Shale Databook. In 90 jam-packed pages you will get the latest information on what’s happening (or not happening) with drilling in the Marcellus/Utica region. Much of the Databook is a series of county maps–one map for each county where there’s permit activity for Marcellus or Utica drilling. Each county maps shows a dot for where a permit was issued–along with the name of the driller next to it. The maps also show major natural gas pipelines and compressor stations. Each map offers you a quick, visual way of understanding where drilling is happening, and who’s doing the drilling. In addition, MDN editor Jim Willis spent several weeks compiling and completely revising a list of major pipeline and infrastructure projects happening throughout the northeast (and Midwest)–any project that affects takeaway capacity in the Marcellus/Utica. Jim found 101 projects in this updated list (sample below). If all projects get built, it represents a flabbergasting $83 billion worth of investment! The 3-volume series is just $350 (single volumes are $225). All three volumes are meant to work together. This is the PERFECT resource for drillers, pipeline companies, law firms, landmen and many others. Take a look at our sample pages below…
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    Virginia Tech/NETL Cabon Dioxide Research Benefits Shale Drillers

    researchIt’s amazing what lengths otherwise rational-thinking adults will go to, to dispose of carbon dioxide–the stuff you breathe out with every breath you take. Global warmists believe an abundance of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to global warming and toast Mother Earth (even though average global temps haven’t increased in nearly 19 years now, an inconvenient truth for warmists that they avoid addressing). Sometimes this strange behavior of trying to dispose of CO2 is actually beneficial to the shale industry. Researchers from Virginia Tech have teamed with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) on a multi-part project to investigate the feasibility of injecting captured CO2 into shale and other rock layers. The experiments, which so far are showing great promise, inject CO2 into the rock forcing natural gas out of the rock and to the surface–and locking away the nefarious CO2 underground where it will stay until a couple of hundred years from now when someone figures out how to use CO2 as an energy source and they go after it again…
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    Oh Oh, New “Study” Says Fracking Leads to Low Sperm Count!

    fall down laughingA study titled “Endocrine-Disrupting Activity of Hydraulic Fracturing Chemicals and Adverse Health Outcomes After Prenatal Exposure in Male Mice” was published last week in the journal Endocrinology (abstract below). This one is fall-right-out-of-your-chair-laughing funny! The study attempts to make a link between fracking and low sperm counts in men by exposing mice (yes, mice were harmed in the making of this study!) with chemicals used in fracking. Thing is, they overdosed the mice–using far more chemicals at higher doses than are ever used in fracking fluids. That’s just one of the many problems with this new “study.” There are plenty of other problems too, including the raging conflicts of interest for the anti-driller who was the supervising “researcher” for the study…
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    OSU Looking for OH Famers with Pipelines to Study Crop Impacts

    researchAre you a farmer in Ohio with concerns, or perhaps a general interest, in whether or not pipelines running across your property will negatively affect crop productivity? If you are, Ohio State University wants to talk to you. OSU is looking for 20 to 30 farmers with pipelines in their fields over a period of three to five years to participate in a new research study. Here’s the details of the study and how to participate…
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    EIA October DPR Shows Biggest Slump So Far in Oil, Gas Production

    trending downYesterday our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite government report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The numbers are interesting. The first thing we notice is that shale oil production in America’s top seven shale plays is set to fall around 93,000 barrels per day over the next month–the biggest monthly drop in oil production since 2007. However, you have to put that in context. Since 2007 we’ve also seen the largest gains in production we’ve had in a generation or more. A big movement up can lead to a sizable movement back down. The fact is, we’re still producing more onshore oil than we ever have. Also of note is that natural gas production is set to drop 294 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) over the next 30 days–which is the biggest drop in production of shale gas since the EIA started issuing the DPR, and the fifth month in a row shale gas production has decreased. While the Marcellus will once again see a big decrease in its gas production (expected to drop 215 MMcf/d, which is 73% of the total drop!), the Utica reversed. Last month’s report predicted Utica gas production would drop 4 MMcf/d. This month’s report predicts Utica gas production will increase by a whopping 57 MMcf/d…
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    Yale Study Finds Fracking Doesn’t Contaminate Water Aquifers

    researchA team of researchers led by Yale University have just published a new “peer reviewed” study that finds fracking does not contaminate water aquifers. Mainstream media’s response? Crickets. Nothing. Why is that? Here’s something even better: One of the researchers who participated in the study is none other than Avner Vengosh from Duke University, who, using Park Foundation money, previously published studies stating the opposite (see Duke Hit Piece on Shale Water Usage from Same Park-Sponsored Prof). It seems Vengosh has changed his tune and now admits fracking doesn’t contaminate ground water after all. Looks like Vengosh won’t be getting a Christmas card from the Park Foundation this year. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and titled “Elevated levels of diesel range organic compounds in groundwater near Marcellus gas operations are derived from surface activities” (abstract below), finds that when diesel and other types of chemicals *are* found in ground water in the Marcellus Shale region, it’s because of a spill on the surface–and not necessarily a spill from a truck or operation involved with shale drilling. There are many industrial activities that have accidents and spill chemicals…
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    EID’s Devastating Critique of PA Premature Birth “Study”

    exposeLast week MDN reported on a new junk science study that claims to have discovered the closer you live to fracking in Pennsylvania, the more likely your baby will be born prematurely (see New Junk Science Claims PA Fracking Leads to Premature Births). We pointed out the study was funded by left-leaning organizations. However, MDN friend Nicole Jacobs, from the always excellent Energy in Depth blog site, has done a top notch investigation of the study and its authors. Nicole found so many conflicts of interest and biases on the part of the study’s authors, it’s a wonder the study was approved for publication at all. Of course mainstream media will totally ignore the evidence that this is yet another political (not scientific) study–but that’s mainstream media for you. They don’t report news–they issue propaganda. Perhaps the most devastating fact unearthed by Nicole is that the rate of premature births in the study area, the rate that’s supposedly higher the closer you get to fracking–is actually below the overall national average of premature births. In other words, the study’s authors manipulated the data until they could get the results they wanted…
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