Research

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    New Junk Science Claims PA Fracking Leads to Premature Births

    junk scienceIn January 2014, anti-drilling “researchers” jumped the gun at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Philadelphia by announcing “preliminary” results of research in which they claim they can show a connection between shale drilling and low birth weights in newborn babies in Pennsylvania (see Another Flawed Fracking/Health Study Emerges…from Economics Conf). The “researchers” quickly walked back the announcement they made at the conference because, well, because they hadn’t actually done the research yet (see Researchers Backpedal on Bloomberg Story about Fracking & Babies). Another group of “researchers” claims to have done the research (same set of data) and published a new study along the same lines last week in the journal Epidemiology. The conclusion? The closer you live to shale drilling activity in PA, the more likely your baby will born prematurely. The study, called “Unconventional Natural Gas Development and Birth Outcomes in Pennsylvania, USA,” was partially funded by the ultra-liberal Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and subjected to a sham peer review process to give it the veneer of respectability…
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    Baker Hughes Rig Counts for Sept Continue to Drop Across US & in NE

    trending-down.jpgOilfield service giant Baker Hughes released their venerable monthly rotary rig count report yesterday for September 2015. After posting gains in the overall land-based U.S. rig count number for two straight months in July and August, the September numbers dropped like a rock. September U.S. active land-based rigs averaged 848, down 35 from the average of 883 in August and down 18 from July’s average of 866. Rig counts for the Marcellus/Utica also continued to drop, showing another four rigs were idled during September across the combined PA/OH/WV. It’s getting bloody out there…
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    CLNG Releases Report Bashing Coal in Effort to Promote LNG Exports

    stone in glass houseThe Center for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG) released a new report earlier this week that purportedly shows the global environmental benefits of exporting LNG. The Pace Global-authored report, titled “LNG and Coal Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions” (full copy below) found greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from coal-generated electrical power to be 92 percent to 194 percent higher than from power generated from U.S.-produced LNG in five key international markets. Yes, CLNG is targeting another fossil fuel, coal, to justify itself–which is not a healthy thing in our opinion. Everyone (except Cornell professors Robert Haworth and Tony Ingraffea) knows that natural gas burns cleaner and is better for the environment than coal. But coal has its place and is an important energy source. At MDN we don’t throw stones in our fossil fuel glass house. CLNG has decided to capitalize on the mass-hysteria surrounding global warming (a condition that doesn’t actually exist) to try and make a case for more LNG exports. A poor strategy–but it’s one CLNG is pursuing, so we’re bringing you their announcement along with a full copy of the report that concludes exporting more LNG from the U.S. is good for Mother Earth…
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    Anti-Fossil Fuelers Disrupt Shale Event, Won’t Listen to Science

    fingers in earsWhat is it about some anti-drillers (actually, anti-fossil fuelers) that makes them closed-minded and unreasonable? A Colorado research chemist and two technology students from Singapore set out to answer the question of whether or not shale oil should be produced. All three attended a 10-week intensive course focusing on Utah’s vast oil reserves (no, this story is not about the Marcellus/Utica per se, but it is illustrative nonetheless). Although the three had intended on submitting a research paper at the 35th Annual Oil Shale Symposium being held yesterday and today in Salt Lake City, the research paper ended up being a 116-page e-book they’re selling on Amazon, called “Oil Shale: Treasure Trove or Pandora’s Box.” The authors, with no preconceived outcome before taking the 10-week course, objectively conclude that extracting shale oil in Utah or other locations “is not going to be some sort of environmental Armageddon. That is not true.” Protesters at the event, however, don’t want to hear reasonable talk. A group of anti-fossil fuelers, rather than sit and listen to the evidence and keep and open mind, rose during the event–a private (not public) event–and illegally disrupted the event with chanting and singing. Yep, stick you fingers in your ears and holler “la la la la, I can’t hear you!” instead of open your mind and use your little gray cells to try and comprehend the miracle that is fracking and the miracle that is fossil fuel energy…
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    Obama Admin $730K Grant to Convert Tugboat from Diesel to ?

    tugboatGet this: The Obama administration has made a $730,000 grant to the Pittsburgh Region Clean Cities (PRCC) organization to study how to convert boats to operate more efficiently and pollute the environment less. Most boats today burn a nasty, filthy, rotten fossil fuel called diesel. Belches out all sorts of “pollutants” including carbon dioxide. Obamadroids want to clean up Mother Earth and need to figure out ways to do it. But sticking a windmill or a solar panel on a boat doesn’t work very well (Obama’s already tried it). So for the administration that’s given us the Clean Power Plan that tries to eliminate both coal and natural gas, we have a grant to convert a tugboat from burning diesel to…burning natural gas. Yep. Even Obamadroids have to admit you can power boats with solar and wind–so they’ve given $730,000 to the PRCC to run an experiment in converting a tugboat burning diesel into burning clean, abundant and cheap natural gas. Perhaps the smartest thing Obama has ever done!…
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    Syracuse U Prof to Discuss Fracking Research on Sun, Oct 18

    on the airThe Joint Landowners Coalition of New York (JLCNY) and JLC United will air another live session of the Good News Table Talk Radio Show on Sunday, Oct. 18 from 7-8 pm on WNBF Radio 1290 in Binghamton (listen online at: www.wnbf.com). Bob Williams, JLCNY Vice President and an environmental consultant with over 40 years experience, along with JLCNY board member Rob Rano, will interview and chat with acclaimed Syracuse University Earth Science professor, Dr. Donald I. Siegel. Dr. Siegel is the lead author of a Syracuse University study published earlier this year that found, after evaluating data from over 11,000 well water tests (34,000 samples) in Pennsylvania, that a water well’s proximity to fracking operations has no bearing on whether or not methane is found in that water well. In other words, fracking does not cause methane migration into water wells (see Syracuse U Study: Fracking Doesn’t Cause Methane in PA Water Wells). Radicalized environmentalists immediately launched a smear campaign and personal attack against Dr. Siegel (see Syracuse Prof Targeted in Effort to Discredit Drilling Research). Dr. Siegel has just published a second study based on a huge dataset that covers not only PA, but OH and WV. This new study finds in comparing pre- and post-drilling samples that the quality of water in private wells is the same after shale wells are drilled nearby as it was before the drilling began. Tune in to hear Dr. Siegel discuss real science and the proposed Crestwood propane/methane storage facility at Seneca Lake, water quality, methane migration, fracking fluids, and Dimock, PA…
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    New Study: Fracking Does Not Affect Water Wells in Marcellus/Utica

    researchIn March of this year, Syracuse University Professor Dr. Donald Siegel published the results of an extensive research study that found fracking of Marcellus Shale wells in Pennsylvania does not cause methane in water wells (see Syracuse U Study: Fracking Doesn’t Cause Methane in PA Water Wells). It was an enormously important work because it’s real science, based on the largest known database of well water samples, over 11,000 of them, taken by Chesapeake Energy both before and after drilling happened. Siegel has used Chessy’s enormous data set once again–this time over 20,000 samples–to conduct a second study. Siegel has just published that study in the peer reviewed journal Applied Geochemistry. The new study is titled “Pre-drilling water-quality data of groundwater prior to shale gas drilling in the Appalachian Basin: Analysis of the Chesapeake Energy Corporation dataset” (abstract below). The new study finds that the quality of water in private water wells near fracked shale wells in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia–across the entire Marcellus/Utica region–is the same after shale drilling as it was before shale drilling. That is, shale drilling has no effect on the quality of water in private water wells close to shale drilling activities…
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    NGSA Research: Price of NatGas This Winter Same as Last Winter

    crystal ballThe price of natural gas isn’t going anywhere fast during winter 2015-2016. That’s the takeaway MDN gets from an analysis just released by the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). The NGSA’s 15th annual Winter Outlook assessment (full copy below) says we have record production on the way, record amounts of gas in storage, and according to the National Weather Service, a winter that will average around 7 degrees warmer than last year. NGSA also says demand for natgas from electric generating plants and other users will tick up a bit. So on balance, NGSA says there will be “neutral pressure” on this winter’s natural gas prices compared to the winter of 2014-2015. In other words, the price isn’t going anywhere–likely to stay in the same neighborhood of last winter’s average Henry Hub price of $3.21 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). MDN points out the price of gas varies widely depending on what part of the country you’re in. Although gas sold at the Henry Hub delivery point for an average of $3.21/Mcf last winter, gas selling at the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Zone 4 Marcellus delivery point was less than half that–around $1.50/Mcf last winter. NGSA is saying: What you saw last winter for prices is what you’re likely to see this winter…
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    OH & Other States Release Report on Injection Wells & Earthquakes

    StatesFirst Seismicity PrimerCountless times MDN has told you that in rare cases, injecting fracking wastewater into a deep, underground Class II injection well (for disposal) can cause earthquakes–if the injection well is located over a fault. When you inject fluids under high pressure into rock formations with a fault it can act like a lubricant, allowing the rocks to slip and slide–causing a low-level earthquake. It’s happened in Ohio. It’s happened (a lot) in Oklahoma. It’s happened in Texas. And in other states too. Thirteen oil and gas states joined together with the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) and Ground Water Protection Council (GWPC) to form the StatesFirst Initiative, a working group to pool their knowledge and try and figure out how, and under what conditions, injection wells cause earthquakes. Co-heading the initiative is Ohio’s Chief for the Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management (Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources), Rick Simmers. Rick and the working group have just released a 150-page Primer (copy below) to help regulatory agencies evaluate and develop good policies to mitigate and prevent earthquakes from injection wells…
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    Analysts Say Marcellus/Utica 2016 Production Will Exceed 2015

    crystal ballAnalysts with global investment firm Jeffries are out with a forecast for natural gas production next year, in 2016. Jeffries says while natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica will slow next year, they are the only two plays in the entire country that Jeffries says will still grow in production year over year. However, overall the U.S. will produce slightly less gas in 2016 than we will have in 2015–with production estimated to decline by 0.8% (less than a single percentage point)…
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    CoBank Report: US Natural Gas Outlook through 2020

    supply demandCoBank, a national cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America, has just published a study titled “U.S. Natural Gas Outlook through 2020: Demand Is the New Captain of the Ship” in which they predict the United States will become a net exporter of natural gas in 2017. While we don’t have a copy of the full report, we do have a summary below listing the key points in the report, along with a video…
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    New Study Evaluates Stressors on Streams from Shale Drilling

    researchA new research paper has just been published that purports to evaluate potential “stressors” on streams from unconventional (i.e. shale) oil and gas drilling–including drilling in the Marcellus/Utica. The paper is titled “Stream Vulnerability to Widespread and Emergent Stressors: A Focus on Unconventional Oil and Gas” (full copy embedded below) and is written by a group of researchers from the University of Arkansas, University of Central Arkansas, University of Wyoming, Wilkes University, the U.S. Geological Survey and Waterborne Environmental Inc. In a cursory review the paper does indeed appear to be heavy on science and absent the usual political arguments. However, the one great negative for this paper is that it is published in the online “journal” PLOS ONE, a publication with very low academic standards and home to a number of previous “fracking will kill you” types of “research” papers (see Another Day, Another “Study” Saying Marcellus Kills Nature; and Study Tries to Link Marcellus Fracking to Low Birth Weight Babies; and New Study Claims Marcellus Drilling Causes Serious Health Issues). Previous junk science “studies” published on PLOS ONE cast doubt on this study, but we bring it to you so you can judge for yourself whether or not this latest research is credible and useful in guiding policy and regulatory decisions…
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    Partisan Group Wants to Double or Triple WV’s NGL Severance Tax

    tax increaseThe partisan (Democrat) West Virginia Center on Budget & Policy, which pretends to be nonpartisan and above the political fray but isn’t, has just published a so-called policy brief titled “A Win-Win Marcellus Shale Tax Incentive” (full copy below). The “brief” attempts to make the case for doubling or tripling the severance tax on natural gas liquids produced in WV (from 5% to 10% or 15%)–giving exemptions to the tax increase for those who keep the NGLs extracted in the state. The recommendation hopes to boost the attractiveness of petrochemical plants like the proposed Odebrecht cracker plant that would use ethane, the primary NGL extracted in WV, by making it more expensive to send WV’s ethane across the border, to say either Shell’s proposed cracker in PA or PTT Global’s proposed cracker in OH. The tone of the “report” is that WV has been raped and pillaged in the past–their precious coal stolen and carted away to other states–and WV can’t let that history repeat itself again. Better to shut down drilling rather than have any of it “exported” to other states. It is misguided and faulty thinking…
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    Univ of Michigan Final Report on Fracking: It Can be Done Safely

    MI ReportTwo years ago MDN reported on a University of Michigan research project called the Hydraulic Fracturing in Michigan Integrated Assessment (see Univ of Michigan Reports Explore Future of Fracking in MI). The aim of the two-year project is to help guide policy on shale drilling in the state. It actually ended up taking three years, but the final report was just released (full copy embedded below). The report does not advocate for any particular position, pro or anti-fracking. It simply reports findings and, you know, actual science. Let the policy makers use the information to formulate rules and regulations. Michigan, which does contain shale layers, including the Utica, that may one day be commercially tapped, stands in stark contrast to New York where politics got involved and corrupted the process. In Michigan the science determines the outcomes–but sadly, not in New York. The Michigan study shows that with strict environmental regulations, fracking can be done safely…
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    US Govt Report Shows Economies in Shale Regions are Expanding

    gdp_metro0915MDN spotted an interesting report released yesterday by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The report evaluates the change in GDP by metropolitan areas across the county. What the heck is GDP? It is gross domestic product (GDP), one of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a region’s economy. GDP represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. Think of it as the size of the economy in a given metropolitan (or state or country) region. What is interesting about the report to MDN is that it mentions shale energy and the Marcellus in particular as one reasons why certain areas of the country expanded. When you look at the map (below) we want you to note two things: (1) Most of the metro areas/regions in upstate NY are shrinking, rapidly; and (2) those areas in northeast and southwest PA, eastern OH and northern WV that have Marcellus/Utica drilling are expanding, rapidly. It is no accident. The Marcellus/Utica is a huge economic engine…
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    Wood Mackenzie: “Raft” of Planned LNG Projects Won’t Get Built

    postponedGlobal research firm Wood Mackenzie recently published a brief analysis of LNG export facilities asking the question, Where are all the LNG project postponements? According to Wood researchers, the outlook for global LNG demand is looking increasingly subdued–particularly in China. The number of LNG projects proposed to make a Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2015 and 2016 has not reduced significantly. If all or close to all of the projects on the books make a FID to move forward, there would be an unsustainable glut of new LNG supplies–without a corresponding amount of demand around the globe. Wood Mackenzie’s conclusion? Companies will soon wake up to the fact that there won’t be enough demand and we will see “a raft of project postponements” in the next 6-18 months…
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