The Case for Rising NatGas Prices – How High and How Soon?
We’ve preached “lower for longer” for a long time now–the theory that natural gas prices are low and will remain low for the foreseeable future. Not because we want it to be that way, but because it is that way, and we want you, our beloved MDN readers, to know the truth. We live for the day when we can tell you natgas prices are heading higher. Are we finally beginning to see some hope in that regard? Maybe! We’ve outlined the latest thinking across several recent posts that given the crash in oil prices, less associated natural gas will be produced leading to less supply on the market and (eventually) higher prices for gas. When will that happen? We have some new speculation to share.
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MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Shale gas was in trouble, then came the coronavirus; No need for natural gas pipeline across Raritan Bay, environmental report says; NATIONAL: Natural gas market starting to discount oil production shut-ins; Coronavirus clouds outlook, but EIA still sees Henry Hub at $2.11 this year; What COVID-19, global LNG demand loss could mean for U.S. gas storage refill; Shale cutbacks to fall on weakest drillers as glut drowns market; Keeping up with the Jones Act! Changes a pandemic and price war could bring; INTERNATIONAL: Russia: U.S. shale decline can’t count as ‘output cut’; Maybe the U.S. should delay virtual G20 oil meeting; Big Oil market question: What’s already priced in?; Saudi wealth fund builds $200 million stake in Norway’s state oil company.
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) says CNX Resources failed to prevent soil erosion at seven of the company’s well pad sites in Washington and Greene counties in 2017/2018. The failure, says DEP, resulted in the release of soil and sediment, including a few cases of sediment-laden water being released into nearby streams. CNX corrected the violations and has struck a deal with DEP regarding compensation. Instead of paying a fine to the DEP, CNX will pay $180,000 to restore a trout stream in a Washington County park.
There’s at least a partial truce in the ongoing tariff war between the U.S. and China. President Trump began slapping tariffs on certain Chinese imports in retaliation for China’s longstanding policy of ripping off U.S. intellectual property, stealing our trade secrets, and in some cases blocking our goods and services from selling in their country. We’ve had a grossly unfair trade situation with China taking advantage of the U.S. for decades (under weak presidents). Trump had the you-know-whats to put a stop to it. The so-called trade war escalated and China slapped tariffs on certain commodities we used to sell there–including LNG (natural gas). We haven’t sold an LNG cargo to China in over a year. Until now. China is suddenly waiving their 25% tariff on U.S. LNG. Four U.S. LNG cargoes are steaming to the Orient right now.
Companies in the Marcellus/Utica shale industry have stepped up and given money, and in some cases retooled manufacturing operations, in order to help communities, first responders and medical professionals respond to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Companies like ExxonMobil, Range Resources, Cabot Oil & Gas, EQT, Alta Resources, Chevron, Greylock Energy, Olympus Energy, Penn E&R, Southwestern Energy and others. We are gratified and proud of the industry where we hang our hat.
If you’ve read MDN for any length of time you know we’ve preached the gospel of “lower for longer”–that natural gas prices will remain low, quite low, for a long period of time. How low? Likely in the $2/Mcf range (or just under, or just over). Gone are the days of $3 and $4 gas–at least for a period of years. Although that may have now changed with the double shock of too much oil and the coronavirus destroying demand, which affects natural gas prices. How? Less oil drilling in American shale means less associated gas produced by oil drilling. Less supply equals higher prices. But let’s not go down that rabbit trail right now. We spotted a couple of articles by analysts who predict the current oil price crash will have a profound and long-term effect not only on the oil industry but also on the petrochemical industry–the downstream recipient and user of oil (and gas).
The gloves are off. Today we’re calling out the American Petroleum Institute and the Big Oil supermajors that control the API for their selfishness and shortsightedness. Apparently the supermajors have long wanted American shale and the plethora of smaller independents to just go away–so they (Big Oil) could once again control the world market for oil. The result of that philosophy, whether intentional or not, will be to allow foreign countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia to buy up OUR American shale companies, for themselves (see U.S. in Danger of Losing Our Shale Oil Industry to Other Countries). The API hides under the covering of “don’t interfere in free markets” in advising President Trump to not do anything to help American shale. That’s bunkum.
America is in danger of losing ownership of our shale oil companies to bad actors including Saudi Arabia, Russia and other foreign countries. Those countries are actively, aggressively, purposely waging a price war against us, trying to drive American shale companies into bankruptcy. Why? So they can turn around and buy up our companies and once again control the world market for oil. It is a *hostile* action. President Trump, please don’t let it happen!
Enverus, a leading oil and gas SaaS and data analytics company, has just released its latest FundamentalEdge report called, “
Vallourec, headquartered in Boulogne-Billancourt, France, manufactures steel pipes used in the oil and gas industry. The company employs some 19,000 people in 20 countries, including the U.S. In fact, Vallourec employs more than 750 at three Youngstown, Ohio units: Vallourec Star, VAM USA and Vallourec USA Corp. Yesterday Vallourec corporate headquarters announced it will reduce (layoff/eliminate) some 900 positions “across all plants as well as support functions.” That number, 900, represents over one-third of Vallourec’s total workforce and contractor positions in North America. The announcement implies all 900 of the positions being eliminated will happen in North America.
Is your head spinning yet with all the news about the oil price crash and what the U.S. may or may not do to “fix” it? Ours is! Last week President Trump tweeted to the world he had a conversation with his “friend” the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Prince told Trump the Saudis and Russians are close to announcing a major cut in world oil production (see 
While the drilling rig count is an important signal for the future of oil (and gas) production, drilling a hole in the ground is only half of the process (and only one-third of the cost). After the hole is drilled comes “completions”–fracking and other work to get the hole producing and connected to a pipeline. Fracking is done by a collection of equipment–things like high-pressure pumps. It’s known in the industry as a “frac spread” (or a “frac fleet”). Counting the number of frac spreads is a better indicator of how much oil will come online than counting active rigs. What does the frac spread count show right now? How quickly will U.S. oil production decrease?
We’re not anywhere close to being “through” the worst of the coronavirus siege. Yet the environmental left in this country is opportunistically using the virus to push for the end of oil AND natural gas use. It’s mindblowing how stupid they really are. They are blinded by their own wacko non-God environmental religion. As we begin to exit from the virus crisis, attention will once again return to the race for the U.S. presidency and to calls from a majority of the Democrat Party to slap a nationwide ban on fracking. What would that *really* mean, in dollars and cents and jobs? We have some numbers for you to mull over.