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China’s AI Announcement Tanks U.S. Stocks, Including M-U Drillers
Did you happen to catch the news lighting up all the cable news stations yesterday about Chinese startup DeepSeek? The company launched a free AI assistant that it claims uses less data at a fraction of the cost of other AI models. By Monday, the DeepSeek assistant had overtaken U.S. rival ChatGPT in downloads from Apple’s app store. The news sent traders into a tailspin of selling off tech company stocks like Nvidia (which makes the chips used in AI). The news also affected natural gas drillers negatively. Why? Read More “China’s AI Announcement Tanks U.S. Stocks, Including M-U Drillers”
Wow! Is this the Trump effect? For the week of Jan 13 – 19, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells achieved levels we haven’t seen in, oh, about four years. There were 41 new permits issued last week, up significantly from 27 issued the week before and 30 issued two weeks before. The Keystone State (PA) issued a whopping 25 new permits, with 17 (!) going to EQT spread across Greene and Washington counties. Another six permits went to Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) in Bradford County. One permit each went to Range Resources and Apex Energy in Beaver and Westmoreland counties, respectively. 
The experts at RBN Energy recently analyzed the Q3 2024 financial results for the gas-focused producers the company tracks (mainly Marcellus/Utica producers). The gas-weighted E&Ps RBN follows had the best total shareholder return performance of the three peer groups they tracked through the first nine months of 2024, with a median gain of 14%. On the high side, CNX Resources’ share price was amazing, up more than 60% for the first nine months of last year. On the other end, Coterra Energy’s share price lost value. 
According to an extensive report appearing on the World Oil website (and in the November issue of the magazine), multiple possible futures lie ahead for the Marcellus and Utica shales. So, which future will come to pass? Today, both industry and government see the Marcellus and Utica formations as tremendous opportunities for companies and state governments, with domestically produced energy, jobs, and a huge economic impact. 
There is an important development for landowners AND drillers in a class action case that began some seven years ago. A civil suit was brought by Harrison County oil and gas owners against Antero Resources Corp., claiming the company had deducted post-production costs from royalties not allowed under the leases they had signed. In 2022, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia ruled mostly in favor of the landowners. The District Court sent two certified questions to the state Supreme Court. The Supremes ruled on both issues in November. The court ruled that energy companies cannot deduct post-production costs without explicit lease language, favoring royalty owners over drillers. 
Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its third quarter 2024 update yesterday. The company reports net production averaged 3.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) during 3Q24, a decrease of 2% year-over-year. Of the company’s 2024 production, liquids (NGLs) averaged 206 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), an increase of 2% from 3Q23. Natural gas production averaged 2.2 Bcf/d, down 4% from 3Q23. The company lost $20 million in 3Q24 versus making $17.8 million in profit in 3Q23. 
In 2024, natural gas prices have spent almost the entire year under $3.00 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet), including a few months under $2.00/Mcf. You would think such low prices would have a negative effect on the stock prices of publicly traded Marcellus/Utica gas producers. Not so! Stock prices for our drillers have remained “remarkably stable.” In fact, Antero Resources’ price is actually UP this year. Range Resources is flat for the year so far. Others, like EQT and Coterra Energy, are down just a smidge. Given the disadvantages of the M-U basin—primarily the lack of pipeline takeaway capacity and the long distance our molecules must travel to Gulf Coast LNG export facilities—it’s surprising that stock valuations for our drillers have not been negatively impacted. 
Feedgas flows from the Marcellus/Utica to the Cove Point LNG export facility located on the shore of Maryland fell to zero last Friday, Sept. 20. It was the start of the facility’s annual maintenance outage. The question is, how long will Cove Point be out of commission for liquefying and exporting LNG? According to Reuters, maintenance forcing the facility offline will last “for about three weeks.” Each year, the plant closure is a moving target and a guessing game about how long it will remain offline. Every day counts!