M-U Driller Profits Bounce Back into the Black for 3Q23
It’s been a financial roller coaster for oil and gas drillers over the past 15 years. Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for their invested money. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see Former EQT CEO: Shale Revolution a “Disaster” for Investors). Just before the COVID pandemic hit, shale companies began to change and focus on less drilling and more profitability. That change paid off in a big way. Shale companies saw record profits in 2022 (see How Did M-U Gas Drillers Spend Their 2022 Record Haul of Cash?). But beginning in late 2022, the roller coaster took another turn down and profits crashed (see M-U Drilling Profits Hit Two-Year Low, Better Days Ahead?). But what’s this? Profits for drillers in the M-U (and other shale plays) recovered and began to climb again in the third quarter of 2023 following a five-quarter slide.
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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), headquartered in Buffalo, NY, is the parent company for Marcellus/Utica driller Seneca Resources and the parent of midstream company National Fuel Midstream (formerly Empire Pipeline). Last week, NFG issued its latest quarterly update. NFG operates on a weird fiscal year system. This latest update is for the company’s fourth quarter (and full year), which would be everybody else’s third quarter update. During the company’s fourth quarter, Seneca produced 93.8 Bcfe, an increase of 5.9 Bcfe, or 7%, from the prior year, despite the impact of approximately 2 Bcfe of price-related curtailments due to low in-basin pricing. The big news (for us) coming from the update was the announcement of a new pipeline project to flow more Seneca production to more markets, a project called the Tioga Pathway Project.
In August 2022, Seneca Resources, a subsidiary and the drilling arm of National Fuel Gas Company, announced it had achieved an “A” certification grade under the MiQ Standard for Methane Emissions Performance (MiQ Standard), the highest available certification level MiQ awards, for all of the company’s 1+ billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica (see 
In August, the Executive Director of the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) approved 34 water-use permits for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Lycoming, Sullivan, Susquehanna, and Tioga counties. We’re just learning of the action via an official notice published in the Sept. 23 edition of the Pennsylvania Bulletin. The approvals, which are NOT subject to public review according to SRBC regulations, are general water permits. Each site will be required to receive a specific water withdrawal approval at a later date.
The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. Last week, the SRBC approved 22 new water withdrawal requests within the basin, eight of which are for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. The Marcellus/Utica shale drillers receiving a green light from SRBC included BKV (Banpu), Coterra Energy, EQT, Inflection Energy, Repsol (2 requests), Seneca Resources, and S.T.L. Resources.
Investors in shale oil and gas companies suffered for years with little or no returns for the money they invested. Five of eight large Marcellus/Utica drillers saw their share prices decrease by an astonishing 85% or more from 2008 to 2019 (see 
New shale permits issued for Sep 11 – 17 in the Marcellus/Utica rebounded. There were 22 new permits issued last week, up from 14 issued two weeks ago. But the increase came from an unlikely source. Last week’s permit tally included 9 new permits in Pennsylvania, 1 new permit in Ohio, and 12 new permits in West Virginia. WV is typically on the low end of permits, not the high end. The top permittee for the week was Antero Resources, which received 6 permits in WV. EQT was a close second with 5 permits in WV.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), headquartered in Buffalo, NY, is the parent company for Marcellus/Utica driller Seneca Resources and the parent of midstream company Empire Pipeline. Yesterday, NFG issued its latest quarterly update. NFG operates on a weird fiscal year system. This latest update is for the company’s third quarter, which would be everybody else’s second quarter update. NFG said it plans to “further moderate” its Seneca drilling activity as it shifts to slower production growth in the “low single-digit” range.
For individuals, discretionary income is what’s left after you pay your taxes and fixed costs like housing, food, and clothing. For shale drillers, the equivalent to discretionary income is cash flow from operating activities (CFOA), which is the net income a company generates adjusted for non-cash expenses like depreciation and stock-based compensation, and for changes in working capital. Drillers can use their extra cash to grow production by spending more for drilling new wells (capital expenditures or capex). Or drillers can send some of the extra cash back to investors via share buybacks and dividends. How did Marcellus/Utica drillers spend their CFOA during the first quarter of 2023?
It’s possible to track which institutional investors (big investors like BlackRock) are buying or selling shares in various companies by reviewing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 13F filings. S&P Global Market Intelligence performed a 13F review of which companies bought, and which sold (and how much) shares of stocks for shale gas drillers during the first quarter of 2023. The topmost active shale gas driller having its stock purchased by institutional investors was Comstock Resources, which drills exclusively in the Haynesville Shale. The reason Comstock came out on top, postulates S&P, is because the Haynesville is located close to the Gulf Coast and LNG export plants. However, it was the rest of the list that interested us.