With NatGas Prices This High, Why Aren’t Producers Drilling More?
In recent weeks we’ve been asked the same question by MDN subscribers several times: “With the price of natural gas through the roof, why aren’t Marcellus/Utica drillers drilling more?” In a word, it’s because of hedging. Most drillers have hedged, or pre-sold under contract, most of the output they plan to produce for the balance of this year–at prices MUCH lower than those we’re seeing right now. There is no incentive to drill more. “Fine, but couldn’t they just drill more and sell the new output that’s not hedged at the higher spot prices we see now?” They could, except to drill more means they need more capital (money) to do the drilling, violating their announced budgets (their “guidance”) and violating the expectations of touchy investors and stockholders. Public companies are boxed in. Their hands are tied.
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Remember back in May 2019 (the good old days, prior to hyperinflation, gasoline prices through the roof, electric and natgas prices through the roof) when Rick Perry (an actual, thinking adult) was Secretary of Energy and he and others at DOE referred to LNG exports as “molecules of U.S. freedom”? The Democrat media (i.e. mainstream media) went berserk. The arrogant “reporters” at the New York Times, Washington Post, Slate, NBC, CBS, ABC, et al ad nauseum pilloried and guffawed and maligned and ridiculed Perry and DOE for referring to U.S. LNG exports as “freedom gas” and “molecules of freedom” (
Both U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have essentially steered their respective countries off the road and into an energy ditch. Perhaps Johnson can be forgiven for simply following existing policies and kowtowing to European environmental extremists. Biden has no such excuse. Biden inherited a country that was, after more than 50 years, energy independent. In the space of eight months, Biden turned our country into an energy-dependent nation once again–relying on our enemies (Saudi Arabia and Russia) to provide for our energy needs. How sad.
Well permits, long tracked by MDN, are a leading indicator of drilling activity. In Pennsylvania, four of the state’s five biggest producers–EQT, Chesapeake Energy, Range Resources, and Southwestern Energy–have kept the pace of drilling new wells “subdued” according to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The top five producers in PA accounted for only 51% of the permits issued in September, down from 53% in August. Normally, the top five drillers account for roughly two-thirds of permits issued each month.
Last week we told you about the uber-sleazy Attorney General in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, handing down an indictment with 48 counts against Energy Transfer over (mostly) drilling mud spills–accidents that were previously addressed and handled by the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (see 
According to a Bloomberg article, the energy crisis that’s led to electricity shortages and blackouts in Europe and Asia may be heading for the U.S. Utilities in New York and New England are warning customers to expect higher residential heating bills this winter due to surging global natural gas demand and prices. The fact is the U.S. has plenty of natural gas. The problem with high prices and potential outages is lack of pipelines to flow natural gas from where it’s extracted to where it’s used.
Comrade Joe Biden has painted himself into a corner. As Biden entered office, the United States of America was, after more than 50 years, energy independent. Upon seizing power, Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada and illegally banned federal oil and gas leasing. Now we have an oil and gas shortage and Biden is begging OPEC+ to increase production. What a dunce. This is how inept socialists are. So what can Biden do to get himself out of the corner he’s painted himself (and us) into?
U.S. Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia remains the only thing standing in the way of the Democrats’ far-left, socialist plan to remake the country using a pair of bills that will spend over $5 trillion of your tax money. Both the infrastructure bill and the so-called budget reconciliation bill contain new regulations and laws that directly, nakedly, attack the oil and gas industry. The Democrats want to end fossil fuels–a truly frightening (and stupid) plan. Manchin is holding them back. Will he cave?
Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic, and budgetary issues to assist PA residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. The IFO published its Monthly Economic Update yesterday (for October). The update contains good news for PA residents, all of whom benefit from the state’s Act 13 impact “fee” (i.e. tax) on Marcellus drilling. The IFO says the impact fee in 2022 (assessed on drilled and active wells as of 2021) will haul in an extra $74 million (to nearly a quarter of a billion dollars) thanks to the higher average price of the NYMEX futures index.
It has been a wild ride on the NYMEX natural gas futures roller coaster this week. Record highs and record drops. Natural gas shortages in Europe and Asia are forcing prices to spike in the U.S. Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a “very ugly” (as in high) storage report of 118 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of natural gas injected last week, which was 10 Bcf higher than most experts thought it would be–and yet all that extra supply didn’t move the needle on the NYMEX price which closed the day even from the day before, closing at $5.68/MMBtu.
The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released its Annual Winter Outlook yesterday. In comments made during a presentation to the press, NGSA Chairman David Attwood said he expects U.S. shale producers to come off the sidelines in response to the highest natural gas prices in nearly a decade. That’s good news. “I firmly believe the market works,” Attwood said in response to a question made by the press during the presentation. “There is no doubt the market is giving strong signals for production to increase. That supply is there and will come and meet the demand,” added Attwood.
Looks like the union bosses, who never suffer as the rank and file do, have been bought off by a band of sleazy Democrats in Congress. A group of Dem Senators, including the bumbling Sen. Bob Casey from Pennsylvania and the shameful Sherrod Brown from Ohio, have introduced a bill laughingly called the “American Energy Worker Opportunity Act” to substitute low-wage government welfare for high-paying jobs in the fossil fuel industry. Metaphorically the bill says “Here’s a Yugo to replace your Chevy Tahoe, now sit down, shut up, and be happy with it–because your sacrifice saves the planet.” Will rank and file union members actually fall for it? Will they trade $40/hour jobs in the oil and gas industry for minimum wage jobs installing solar panels plus food stamps? That’s the deal on offer from the Dems.
Although the U.S. is a big and getting bigger exporter of natural gas, it’s not the biggest exporter of natgas in the world. The distinction of being the biggest exporter of natgas in the world goes to Qatar. Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Energy Minister and CEO of Qatar Petroleum, said yesterday natural gas prices have reached “unhealthy levels” for both producers and consumers. Asia’s spot LNG prices soared by 40% on Wednesday as a cargo for delivery into North Asia in November was priced as much as $56/MMBtu–a record high that beat the previous record from last week of $34.52/MMBtu.
You could see it coming for the past year or more. Free speech is under attack in the United State. The Marxists at Google, Inc. are now full-on, anti-First Amendment. There is no free speech in the Googleverse. Yesterday Google announced a new policy that disallows (turns off) advertisers, publishers, and YouTube creators’ ability to monetize content that denies the existence of climate change. Even if you supply data as proof of your view (see 
On August 30, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) issued permits to Powhatan Salt Company/Mountaineer NGL Storage for three planned solution mining wells in Monroe County. The three salt caverns will store NGLs (natural gas liquids, mainly ethane) to potentially be used by ethane crackers including the Shell cracker near Pittsburgh and potentially a second ethane cracker proposed by PTT Global Chemical in Belmont County. The salt caverns can also be used to store hydrogen (H2).
Hold on–it’s a wild ride! Natural gas reaches a record high two days ago, only to be followed by an 11% drop the very next day. Comments by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin sent the U.S. NYMEX natural gas price down 11% in one day. Yeah, just a stray comment by old Vlad had massive power over *our* natural gas market. How? Putin publicly stated he’s going to open up the taps and flow more gas to Europe. What a guy–Europe’s savior.