Research

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    EIA Admission: Rig Counts No Longer Predict Production

    Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their very first Drilling Productivity Report, or DPR (for a copy, see New EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Marcellus Passes 12 Bcf/d!). Yesterday the EIA posted on their Today in Energy blog a bit more of their thinking/rationale for developing the DPR.

    And what, you may ask, is the reason the EIA developed yet another report like the DPR for the energy information-addicted (like MDN) to consume? They developed it precisely for the same reason MDN has been trumpeting for nearly two years now: Rig counts are no longer a reliable predictor of production, as they once were. Here’s yesterday’s EIA post that talks about “rethinking” rig counts, and the new DPR…
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    New EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Marcellus Passes 12 Bcf/d!

    Terry EngelderTerry Engelder is a Penn State University geologist and professor. He was previously named to Foreign Policy magazine’s list of Top 100 Global Thinkers for his work with the Marcellus Shale. MDN calls him the “rock” star of the Marcellus, if you’ll pardon the pun (see Prof Terry Engelder: Marcellus Rock Star). In years gone by Dr. Engelder predicted that sometime in 2015 the Marcellus would be producing 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. For his breathtaking, bold (and frankly wild) prediction he was praised by some, but scorned and ridiculed by many.

    As MDN announced yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is launching a new monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DRP). The very first report was issued yesterday (full copy embedded below). What does it show? It shows that Engelder was wrong. The Marcellus has just passed the 12 Bcf/d mark–now–this month. That is, the Marcellus is even more productive than Engelder’s so-called wild fantasy. According to an EIA spokesman, natural gas production from the Marcellus has surprised even the brainiacs at EIA who study this stuff for a living…
    Read More “New EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Marcellus Passes 12 Bcf/d!”

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    “Consultant” Says 62% of Marcellus Waste Goes Missing in WV

    A “consultant” testifying before West Virginia legislators on Tuesday said that WV has no idea where nearly 2/3 of shale drilling wastewater goes for disposal. He also accused the WV Dept. of Environmental Protection (WVDEP) of not doing their job with respect to reporting and tracking shale waste as directed by the 2011 Natural Gas Horizontal Well Control Act.

    The consultant doing the accusing–Evan Hansen, president of the consulting firm Downstream Strategies–was there shilling for the anti-drilling group Earthworks. Therefore, the results of the so-called study (to be released next week) performed by his so-called consulting firm are at a minimum suspect…
    Read More ““Consultant” Says 62% of Marcellus Waste Goes Missing in WV”

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    EIA to Launch New Monthly Drilling Productivity Report

    If you’ve read MDN for any length of time, you know we’re generally not fans of the federal government and the bloated bureaucracy it has become. The EPA, for one, has way overstepped its Constitutional authority in our humble opinion (we call it a rogue agency). There is, however, one federal agency we like and admire and respect: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA is populated with bright people that produce helpful and insightful reports about energy production and consumption in the U.S., indeed around the world. While the EIA is not exactly prophetic, their word is about as close to energy Gospel as it gets.

    With the so-called government shut-down now over, the EIA is back in business. Yesterday they announced they’re starting up a new monthly report called the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The report will tell us just how efficient (or not) rigs are at drilling, and how productive (or not) wells are, by region/shale play. Among the very important things to be tracked in the new DPR will be the decline rate of newly drilled wells–how quickly the gas and oil flowing out of shale wells peters out. Here’s yesterday’s EIA announcement:
    Read More “EIA to Launch New Monthly Drilling Productivity Report”

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    MDN’s 2013 Databook Vol 2 Finds Staggering $40B in NE Midstream Projects

    MDN Databook 3 VolumesMarcellus Drilling News collaborates with the excellent ShaleNavigator service to publish a series of research reports called the Marcellus and Utica Shale Databook. MDN editor Jim Willis is super excited to announce that Volume 2 for the 2013 Databook series has just been released–and it is without question our best-ever. Among the pearls in this newest edition: Jim researched and developed a comprehensive list of 111 Marcellus/Utica Shale midstream and infrastructure projects which identifies the company building the project, a description of the project and its location, the amount of investment expected in the project and the target in-service date. Most of the midstream projects are pipeline and processing plants–no surprise there. What may surprise you is that when all of the projects are totaled, the number is a staggering $40 billion of investment coming to the northeastern U.S. in the coming years. The average project comes in at $364 million.

    In addition to a comprehensive list of midstream projects, we also include (standard in each volume) maps for each county with active drilling/permitting activity in PA, OH and WV. Each map shows the location of wells with permits along with the driller’s name. In addition, Vol. 2 of the Databook contains charts showing how many permits have been issued by both driller and county from 2012 to 2013–showing the progression over the past two years. These charts are an important tool that can be used to identify the drillers and geographies where drilling is heating up, cooling down, or staying steady. It is a Databook first and the Databook is the only place where you’ll find it.

    Here’s the press release we released today announcing this latest (we believe our best yet) Databook, Volume 2:
    Read More “MDN’s 2013 Databook Vol 2 Finds Staggering $40B in NE Midstream Projects”

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    GE Report: Natural Gas Taking the Limelight in World Energy

    Last week GE released a new report titled “The Age of Gas and the Power of Networks” (full copy embedded below). In the report, the brains at GE say that natural gas will soon rival coal use throughout the world, and is even starting to take some of oil’s market share away. By 2025 the report says 20% of the world’s natural gas supply will come from unconventional (i.e. shale) gas. Most that will come from the U.S. and Canada, and the majority of that will come from two shale plays: the Marcellus and the Eagle Ford. It shows the incredible importance of the Marcellus to the world’s energy supplies in the coming decades.

    Other interesting factoids found in the report: 89% of natural gas is transported via pipelines, the rest by rail or truck or ship. LNG exports will play an increasingly important role as America continues to generate more natural gas that we can use here at home. And not surprisingly, the power sector (electric generation) will be the key future driver of demand for more natural gas, especially with tighter EPA regulations on coal generating plants…
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    Tipping Point: More NatGas Now Produced by Shale than Conventional

    According to energy consulting firm PIRA Energy Group, the United States has reached a tipping point: We now produce more natural gas from shale deposits and “tight gas” formations (i.e. “unconventional sources”) than we do from traditional, conventional sources.

    In a wide ranging article (below), PIRA and others quoted talk about the tremendous drop in prices for natural gas and gas liquids, the startling turnaround in chemical manufacturing in this country (because of the abundance of cheap natural gas and feedstocks like ethane), and the importance of the Marcellus/Utica in this whole equation. Hint: Nearly 1/3 of the natural gas being produced from shale comes from the Marcellus/Utica…
    Read More “Tipping Point: More NatGas Now Produced by Shale than Conventional”

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    Purdue Researchers: Shale Energy Adds $478B Per Year to US Economy

    Researchers at Purdue University recently presented the results from two studies analyzing the economics of shale energy and its impact on the U.S. economy (summary embedded below). They discussed their findings at the annual North American joint conference of the United States and International Associations for Energy Economics in Anchorage, Alaska (in July). What did the Purdue researchers find?

    Purdue researchers found that shale oil and gas will increase the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States by an average of 3.5% per year through 2035. In raw numbers, that means each and every year shale is adding $478 billion to our economy–a number so large it’s breathtaking. It seems to MDN that shale energy is single-handedly keeping our country out of yet another recession…
    Read More “Purdue Researchers: Shale Energy Adds $478B Per Year to US Economy”

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    PA DEP Files Required Report on So-Called Climate Change Affects

    Let’s assume, just for the sake of argument, that there really is a Santa Claus. Let’s further assume brilliant politicians in Pennsylvania want a state government agency to do a “scientific study” of the physics of how Santa can visit all of the homes in PA in a single night–Dec. 24–and still make it home to the North Pole in time to eat cookies by sunrise. The purpose of the report is to reassure the little kiddies that Santie is real and yes, he can and does get it all done in a single night.

    Now assume that those same PA politicians believe in another fairy story–something called man-made global warming (now renamed to “climate change” because the earth’s so-called average temperature hasn’t risen in the last 15 years)–and that said politicians directed a state agency–the Dept. of Environmental Protection–to draft up a document detailing how the big, bad bogeyman of global warming will affect all the little boys and girls in PA, and oh, by the way, don’t forget to sprinkle the report with lots of talk about “renewables” because we hate nasty fossil fuels, ya know. And snap snap, get that report written PDQ!

    Unfortunately, the second scenario above is true. And when the DEP was late in filing this exercise in fantasyland, PA eco-nuts and anti-drillers got their knickers in a twist. They can untwist them now–the fairy story report is finally here…
    Read More “PA DEP Files Required Report on So-Called Climate Change Affects”

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    New Study: No Increase in Childhood Cancer Rates Near PA Fracking

    More bad news for anti-drillers. A recently published study in the peer-reviewed Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (July 2013 issue) looks at incidences of childhood cancers in Pennsylvania–in areas with hydraulic fracturing. The study, titled “Childhood Cancer Incidence in Pennsylvania Counties in Relation to Living in Counties With Hydraulic Fracturing Sites” (full copy embedded below) looks at the rates of cancer both before fracking begins, and then again after fracking has been going on.

    And what did this scientific study find? Statistically, there are no increases in childhood cancers in areas where there is fracking. Bad news for anti-drillers–good news for everyone else, including “the children”…
    Read More “New Study: No Increase in Childhood Cancer Rates Near PA Fracking”

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    What’s Missing in Latest Duke “Radioactive” Study? Real Science

    Real Science - Try it.Those crazy, anti-drilling kids at Duke University are at it again. They released a “study” in a “peer-reviewed” journal yesterday (a study funded in part by the anti-drilling Park Foundation) that took samples from a creek downstream from a wastewater treatment plant that used to (but no longer does) treat Marcellus fracking wastewater. Republican Michael Krancer put an end to frack wastewater treatment by such facilities in early 2011, something the Rendell administration couldn’t or wouldn’t do. Krancer and the Marcellus Shale Coalition said municipal plants processing frack wastewater was creating an issue (see PA DEP, Marcellus Shale Coalition Admit Drilling Wastewater Likely Contaminating Drinking Water). So the Park/Duke kids sampled a single creek before the practice had ended and found, not surprisingly, high (but not dangerous) levels of radioactivity in the stream bed. In other words, they’re reporting what we’ve known for the past three years.

    What do the headlines in hundreds of newspapers and online sources (with lazy reporters) blare out today? Fracking causes radioactivity in streams and rivers (plural) in Pennsylvania. Even though the Duke study only looks at a single location in a single creek and the data predates when the practice ended. Real science would have investigated multiple wastewater treatment plants, not just cherry-picking one. Real science is not funded by an avowed anti-drilling organization like the Park Foundation. And real science would have pointed out frack wastewater treatment at these plants ended several years ago. But then, no one ever accused Park/Duke kids of performing real science…
    Read More “What’s Missing in Latest Duke “Radioactive” Study? Real Science”

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    Ingraffea to Defend the Indefensible: His Own Flawed “Research”

    Prof. Tony Ingraffea of Cornell University continues to embarrass his employer. A new study by the University of Texas and the Environmental Research Council was released last week that (gasp!) used actual science–you know, out in the field measurements–instead of fanciful theories like Tony uses (see New Study Final Nail in Coffin of Inflated Fugitive Methane Claims). The real science in this new study completely, utterly refutes the guesswork of Ingraffea and his cohort in less-than-rigorous research, Robert Howarth.

    So what does Tony do? He heads back on the lecture circuit with his best-ever dog and pony to try and convince people his guesses really are better than actual scientific measurements. He may also try to sell you a bridge while he’s at it…
    Read More “Ingraffea to Defend the Indefensible: His Own Flawed “Research””

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    ShaleNavigator Service Adds 10K Acres to Available Property Layer

    MDN is happy to give a high-five and shout-out to our Marcellus and Utica Shale Databook co-editor Ed Camp and his excellent ShaleNavigator online shale mapping service. Not long ago Ed added an “Available Property” map layer to the ShaleNavigator service which shows acreage available for leasing. The great thing about ShaleNavigator? You can add other layers, like pipelines, wells permitted/drilled, etc. Add all of those layers together with the Available Property layer–now you’re talking! Is this acreage near other leased acreage? Close to wells already being drilled? Pipelines in the area? Using ShaleNavigator’s Available Property and other layers together is like going from monochrome to full color.

    The “new news” from Ed is that he’s just added another 10,000 acres to the Available Property layer. ShaleNavigator is a great service for individual landowners, landowner groups, drillers, midstreamers, landmen–anyone connected to the shale drilling industry in the Marcellus/Utica region. Today’s press release from our friend Ed:
    Read More “ShaleNavigator Service Adds 10K Acres to Available Property Layer”

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    Forbes Article Exposes Cornell Prof Howarth and His “Research”

    Earlier this week MDN told you about the newly released Environmental Defense Fund research study that found (surprise!) not nearly as much methane leaks out of shale wells as scaremongers like Cornell professors Robert Howarth and Tony Ingraffea want you to believe (see New Study Final Nail in Coffin of Inflated Fugitive Methane Claims). It won’t surprise you that Prof. Howarth is indignant that his research has been called into question (yet again).

    An article on the Forbes website by George Mason University’s Jon Entine does a masterful job of investigating anti-frackers like Howarth and Ingraffea and what really motivates them. Hint: Follow the (Park Foundation) money…
    Read More “Forbes Article Exposes Cornell Prof Howarth and His “Research””

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    IHS Study: Worldwide Shale Oil Deposits are Huge

    Global research company IHS released a new study yesterday about the huge supply of oil (yes, oil) that now exists worldwide because of shale. Oil retrieved from shale deposits is referred to as “tight oil” and according to IHS, the world apart from North America has nearly 300 billion (with a “b”) barrels of tight oil available–if they have the will to get it. In order to get it, they’ll have to frack for it. For perspective, the U.S., the biggest oil consumer in the world, consumed 6.7 billion barrels of oil for all of 2012 (according to EIA statistics).

    The new IHS study is titled Going Global: Predicting the Next Tight Oil Revolution. Unfortunately we could not get our hands on a copy to review. However, we were able to find a chart reportedly from the study which shows how big the deposits of tight oil are by region (see our Pinterest images on the right side of any MDN web page). The surprise for us: The biggest potential non-U.S. source of tight oil is Africa…
    Read More “IHS Study: Worldwide Shale Oil Deposits are Huge”

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    New Study Final Nail in Coffin of Inflated Fugitive Methane Claims

    final nail in the coffinIn 2011 Cornell professors Robert Howarth and Anthony (Tony) Ingraffea published a study that claimed drilling for natural gas is actually worse than burning coal because extracting natural gas leads to high levels of “fugitive methane” escaping into the atmosphere and contributing to global warming (see New Cornell University Study Says Shale Gas Extraction Worse for Global Warming Than Coal). It was a “you can’t really be serious” moment, calling into question the academic rigor (or lack thereof) at Cornell. The problem with Howarth and Ingraffea’s work is that it was all theoretical–no actual data measurements on which they based their claims.

    A peer-reviewed study by MIT was later published using actual data that roundly refuted the work of Howarth and Ingraffea (see New MIT Study on Fugitive Methane Discredits Cornell Study). Now, a second peer-reviewed study has just been published by in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. Titled “Measurements of methane emissions at natural gas production sites in the United States” (full copy embedded below), the study uses data from 190 actual well sites and calculates that less than half of one percent (0.42% on average) of natural gas escapes from well sites during extraction (“fugitive methane”). This is much less than Howarth and Ingraffea “estimated” with their theoretical study. This new study puts the final nail in the coffin of efforts to discredit natural gas drilling as worse than coal based on wildly inflated fugitive methane numbers…
    Read More “New Study Final Nail in Coffin of Inflated Fugitive Methane Claims”