PJM Winter Outlook: Enough Power Available, Fingers Crossed
PJM Interconnection is the largest U.S. power grid operator, serving 65 million people in 13 states plus the District of Columbia (including PA, OH, and WV). PJM supplies power to more than 20% of the U.S. economy. The organization issued its annual Winter Outlook yesterday. The analysis says PJM and its members have adequate resources to serve the forecasted demand for electricity this winter under expected conditions, although reserve margins continue to shrink with continued generator (coal plant) retirements and increasing demand. However, if we have “extreme” weather events, problems like blackouts are possible. In other words, we will have enough electricity, but cross your fingers that we don’t experience any extreme weather. Read More “PJM Winter Outlook: Enough Power Available, Fingers Crossed”
There were 20 permits issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica for the week of Sept. 30 – Oct. 6, down eight from the 28 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had eight new permits, with five going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy following a merger with Chesapeake) in both Susquehanna and Wyoming counties. The other three permits went to Laurel Mountain Energy for a pad in Butler County. 
The stakes in this November’s election are incredibly high—for the country as a whole and for shale energy everywhere, including here in the Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania has been the focus this election season due to the presidential race. However, there is another M-U state, Ohio, where the outcome of a statewide race is also very important: that of the Ohio Supreme Court. There are seven judges on Ohio’s high court, with Republicans holding a slim 4-3 majority. There are three seats up for election. It is anticipated that the Ohio Supreme Court will handle an appeal by anti-fossil fuel zealots of the state’s law that allows drilling under (not on) state land and state parks. If the high court tips to the radical left, drilling under state land is in jeopardy. 
Parts of Ohio (like other areas in the northeast) have experienced a moderate drought over the past several months. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) manages ten lakes and four dry dams in southeastern Ohio for purposes of flood control, recreation, and conservation. One of its biggest customers for water sales is the shale oil and gas industry. With the ongoing drought, MWCD recently stopped water sales from Atwood Lake, a popular boating and fishing spot southeast of Canton that has experienced a foot-and-a-half drop in water levels over the past few months. It is the only location where MWCD has had to stop water sales. 
Yesterday, the Ohio Supreme Court issued a “slip opinion” dismissing a challenge to a tiny 3.7-mile, 30-inch pipeline Columbia Gas wants to build in Maumee, a city in Lucas County, Ohio, a suburb about 10 miles southwest of Toledo. The owners of a commercial office building claimed they would suffer “irreparable financial harm” if the pipeline were built near their office building. The pipeline does not cross any land owned by the company but does cross land adjacent to the building. We searched our considerable archives (over 28,000 posts!) and found no references to this project. 
Two weeks ago, the national rig count, which counts all oil and gas rigs, added an astonishing eight rigs to the count after languishing for months — the biggest weekly gain in a year. 
In late July, the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) opened up the shuttered Austin Master Services (AMS) radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, to begin cleanup work at the facility (see 
Yesterday, Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) leadership team members presented an update on the ARCH2 initiative and its current status. Among the big news from the event was that ARCH2 is looking “for up to three” new projects that would be built in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, or eastern Ohio as part of the ARCH2 initiative. The new projects would replace several that are no longer part of ARCH2. 
Here’s a new concept for some (including us): Have you ever heard about the “heat content” of energy like natural gas? Heat content is the amount of heat energy available to be released by the transformation or use of a specified physical unit of an energy form, like how much heat a cubic foot of natural gas produces when burned. Depending on where you go, the heat content of natural gas varies. A recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that Texas has some of the lowest heat content, and West Virginia has some of the highest. 
In February, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met to award contracts to drill under (not on) several Ohio state parks, including 5,700 acres of the 20,000-acre Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County (see 
Hidden in last Friday’s weekly Baker Hughes official rig count is a big story happening in the Marcellus/Utica. From the 30,000-foot level, Friday’s latest rig count report appeared just fine. The national rig count, which counts all oil and gas rigs, added an astonishing eight rigs to the count after languishing for months — the biggest weekly gain in a year. Very nice. The M-U count maintained at 33, down from a few weeks ago, but still not completely terrible. But then you open the hood and look at the engine, and something startling happens. Pennsylvania is losing rigs, bleeding rigs, like crazy—four rigs gone in the last two weeks. And West Virginia is gaining those lost rigs. Typically, there’s no one answer as to why these things happen. Our best guess is that Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), coming online from the northern panhandle of WV to southern Virginia, carrying natgas to markets outside the immediate region for higher prices, has much to do with this realignment.
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the second quarter of 2024 yesterday. The story the numbers tell continues to be about Utica oil, which continues to rise each quarter. Ohio’s total oil production during 2Q24 was 8.01 million barrels, up 23% from 2Q23’s 6.5 million barrels and up 11% from 1Q24’s 7.2 million barrels. The story of oil in the Buckeye State can’t be told apart from Encino Energy (EAP), which produced nearly half of all the state’s oil during 2Q24. As for natural gas production, it’s no surprise it went down slightly in 2Q24, given the current low price for gas. The state produced 526.6 Bcf in 2Q24, down 3.7% from 2Q23’s 547.0 Bcf, and down 1.4% from this year’s first quarter number of 534.0 Bcf. MDN pulled the numbers from the ODNR quarterly report and produced top 25 lists for both gas and oil wells.
Once a month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s