Marcellus/Utica NGL Production & Exports – Shortage Coming?

The Marcellus/Utica region is a tale of two shales. One is dry gas, or methane only, and the other is methane plus NGLs–other hydrocarbons that come out of the hole along with methane, including ethane, propane, butane, and few others. NGL production can turn a breakeven or possibly money-losing venture into a profitable venture. The wet gas area is located in portions of southwestern PA, eastern OH, and the northern panhandle of WV (see the map). Given the pandemic, fluctuating natgas prices, curtailments, and the general craziness in the markets, what do the next 12 months look like for NGL production in the M-U?
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Baker Hughes, one of the largest oilfield services (drilling) companies in the U.S. and the world, began keeping records on rig counts starting in 1987. As of May 12, 2020, producers operated 339 rigs in the U.S. That’s the lowest number of operating rigs since Baker Hughes began publishing its venerated rig count. It’s not the kind of record we like to see broken.
We spotted an interesting story by S&P Global Platts about the dramatic increase in the stock price for gas-focused drillers, particularly in the Marcellus/Utica. Did you know that EQT’s stock has shot up 127% in value over the past three months? Range Resources and Southwestern Energy are both up 81% in value. Antero Resources is up 76%. It’s impressive! Then again, the stock price for most of those companies decreased by 90% over the past five years, so we have a lot of ground to make up.
One of the worst overreaches and offenses of the Obamadroids was to redefine what “waters of the United States” (or WOTUS) actually means. As they were getting ready to leave power, the Obama EPA redefined WOTUS as everything down to large mud puddles–no lie (see
Yesterday a coalition of twenty-three free market, small business, and consumer groups joined the American Energy Alliance (AEA) in warning President Trump not to slap tariffs on imported crude oil from our enemies (Saudi Arabia and Russia) as a means to help the decimated oil and gas industry. We disagree.
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Dominion to continue Cove Point LNG exports during maintenance; NATIONAL: Why U.S. shale is too important to fail; Google says it won’t build AI tools for oil and gas drillers; INTERNATIONAL: Coronavirus creates repair headache for oil and gas industry.
On October 3, 2016, landowner James Slamon filed a lawsuit against Carrizo and Reliance Industries in the Susquehanna County (PA) Court of Common Pleas. Slamon alleged Carrizo and Reliance underpaid royalties on oil and gas leases to him and a class of other landowners “exceeding one hundred members.” The drillers got the case moved to federal court on October 31, 2016. Fast forward to this past Monday and a judge in the federal court case has certified (in part) the class-action request. The lawsuit will now move forward.
Big time opposition continues to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s plan to force the state to participate in the so-called Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a tax on carbon aimed at coal and natural gas-fired electric power plants, with an eye to driving them out of business (
MDN recently brought you Epislon Energy’s first-quarter 2020 update (see
According to an S&P Global Platts article, “spending cuts by producers and pipeline operators likely will reshape what and when natural gas midstream infrastructure is developed over the next several years.” The cuts and reshaping will, however, be “uneven.” The experts interviewed say pipeline and other midstream projects in gas-focused plays, like the Marcellus/Utica, are more likely to get built while new gas infrastructure in oil plays like the Permian and Bakken are less likely to get built.
What happens in the oil patch has a direct bearing on the financial health of gas drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, which is why we periodically cover happenings in oil. We’re now beginning to see articles with the theme that the oil price crash is already over. Yesterday West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $32.50/barrel. Still not great, but a lot better than the negative $37.63 we saw a few weeks ago! However, does a higher price for oil automatically mean shale oil drilling will immediately return, and with it more associated gas keeping the price of natgas low?
The nation’s largest natural gas producer, EQT Corporation, is temporarily curtailing or shutting in roughly one-third of its natural gas production in Pennsylvania and Ohio. So says EQT’s main midstream (pipeline) provider, Equitrans (formerly EQT Midstream).
We’ve been eagerly anticipating this month’s edition of our favorite report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), to see how much gas production in the Marcellus/Utica will decrease. The DPR estimates how much oil and natural gas each of the country’s seven largest shale plays produced in the previous (current) month, and how much each will produce in the coming (next) month.
The weekly new permits issued report below is delayed, showing permits issued for two weeks ago, from May 4-8. The reason for the delay is a website outage for the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR). In fact, ODNR’s site is still down but the good folks at the agency provided MDN the numbers by running a custom report. There is still no forecast for when ODNR’s site will be back online. For the week of May 4-8, PA had 20 new permits, OH had 3 new permits, and WV had 2 new permits.