Research

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    Navigant: US Natgas Output Will Rise to 110 Bcf/d by 2035

    The energy practice for global consulting firm Navigant recently published a new report titled “North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Year-End 2014” that examines the state of the natural gas industry and provides forecasts for supply and demand through 2035. Among the highlights: Navigant says U.S. natural gas supply will increase from 72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015 to nearly 110 Bcf/d by 2035. Navigant says the big users of all that extra production will be LNG export facilities and electric generating plants that will be built new or converted from burning coal…
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    EIA List of Top 100 Oil & Gas Fields – Shale has Changed the Picture

    In 2009 the number one oil producing formation in the United States was Prudhoe Bay in Alaska. Six years later Prudhoe Bay has fallen to #3 in the list, surpassed by both the Eagle Ford (#1) and Permian Basin (#2), both shale plays in Texas. In 2009 the mighty Marcellus was in the bottom half of the list of the top 100 producing formations. Today? It’s #1, thanks to the miracle of fracking shale. Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration released an updated list of the top 100 U.S. oil and natural gas fields. Below we have that report, showing the top 100 oil fields and the top 100 natural gas fields. Shale has literally changed the landscape of the oil and gas industry in our country…
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    USGS Updates Models for Determining Earthquakes from Injection Wells

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issued an update yesterday into how they evaluate whether or not earthquakes are being caused by deep injection wells–wells that are disposing frack wastewater. USGS says, “Significant strides in science have been made to better understand potential ground shaking from induced earthquakes, which are earthquakes triggered by man-made practices.” And so they’ve issued a report that “outlines a preliminary set of models to forecast how hazardous ground shaking could be in the areas where sharp increases in seismicity have been recorded.” Translation: We’ve updated our best guesses about how this works. The new report is titled “Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model–Results of 2014 Workshop and Sensitivity Studies” (full copy below). USGS concludes that it is almost always injection wells–over faults–that are the cause of induced earthquakes, and NOT fracking itself. The USGS says, “Many questions have been raised about whether hydraulic fracturing—commonly referred to as “fracking”—is responsible for the recent increase of earthquakes. USGS’s studies suggest that the actual hydraulic fracturing process is only occasionally the direct cause of felt earthquakes.” The word “occasionally” translates to this: you can count on one hand the number of times fracking (over a fault) has led to an earthquake…
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    New Report Exposes NY’s Fraudulent “Science” Used to Ban Fracking

    A new report just published by the always excellent Energy in Depth (EID) shreds to pieces the so-called science used by anti-driller and still Acting Commissioner of the New York State Health Department Howard Zucker. The report, titled “A Look Inside New York’s Anti-Fracking Echo Chamber” (full copy below) details Zucker’s use of a bunch of anti-driller-backed research reports, compiling them into a document he used as cover to recommend a ban on fracking in the Empire State. Zucker’s corruption is now exposed for the world to see. Simon Lomax from EID presented a copy of the highly damaging report to a House of Representatives committee hearing yesterday, convened to discuss state and local bans on fracking. New York officials are spitting and sputtering and backpedaling. They can’t find a rock big enough to hide under…
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    Confirmed: PA Natgas Production Decreased from Jan to Feb 2015

    confirmedAs MDN told you last week, natural gas production in Pennsylvania went DOWN from January to February 2015 (see Exclusive: PA Feb Natgas Production Numbers Show Decrease from Jan). We now have the percentage by which it decreased: 9%. As we said last week, EQT and a few other laggards didn’t file their numbers on time. Those numbers are now in and we have the final summary below showing production for both January and February, and the percentage difference–both by county and by driller. Mainstream and industry publications we’ve read say February natgas production in PA was either flat or slightly up from January. That simply is not the case. We’ve run the numbers–twice. We’ve pulled the raw data from the PA Dept. of Environmental Protection–twice. We’ve checked and rechecked and, as we predicted last week, “we expect production to have decreased somewhere around 8-10% overall.” We nailed it, if we might immodestly say so ourselves. So why does everyone else say production rose slightly?…
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    Poised to Become #1 Exporter of Light Naphtha

    IHSPredictsNaphthaOversupplyThrough2020[1]
    Click image for larger version
    The U.S. is already the number one producer of both natural gas AND oil in the world (see USA is #1 Natgas and #1 Oil Producer in the World in 2014). We dethroned Russia as the #1 natgas producer and Saudi Arabia as the #1 oil producer. According to researchers at IHS, another #1 is fast on the way. IHS says the U.S. is poised to dethrone the Middle East as the #1 exporter of light naphtha, an essential steam-cracker feedstock used for the production of gasoline and numerous chemicals…
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    PA DEP Releases 2013 Air Pollution from Drilling Report

    Each year the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) collects air emissions data for the natural gas industry as required by PA’s Air Pollution Control Act. Yesterday the DEP issued a comprehensive report for calendar year 2013. It’s no surprise that several categories of air pollutants increased–the more wells you drill, the more activity, the more air pollution. What *is* surprising is that two categories of air pollution decreased: carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). You also need to throw this into the mix: The way the information is collected and reported changed in 2013. The DEP began requiring data from compressor stations supporting coalbed methane wells. That is, they grew the pie–the data is sort of apples and oranges. And still the CO and CH4 numbers went down! Below is the DEP summary of the numbers, broken out by type of air pollution…
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    Bentek: March US Gas Production Up 8% from Year Ago, 1% from Feb

    Researchers at Platts’ Bentek Energy division estimate natural gas production in the lower 48 States increased by 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to 73.4 Bcf/d during the month of March. That’s an 8% increase over March of 2014. Production was up only 1% from February 2015, illustrating the coming slow down in production. You can’t lay down all of those rigs (875 rigs idled in the past 6 months) and shut-in production without it having an effect sooner or later…
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    Exclusive: PA Feb Natgas Production Numbers Show Decrease from Jan

    exclusiveKudos to the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection. On April 1 they published the very first monthly production numbers for oil and gas production in the state–for the month of January (see PA’s First Monthly O&G Production Report Goes Live). At the time, the DEP said going forward new production numbers would be released 45 days after the end of a calendar month, and that February’s numbers would be released by April 14. Those numbers were released–just before midnight on the 14th! They kept their word and are to be commended for it. MDN has analyzed the numbers from February, comparing them to January. Unfortunately several drillers have failed to file their monthly reports on time–most notable among them is EQT. Because EQT’s numbers are missing for February (one of the larger drillers in PA), it throws off any kind of meaningful analysis. However, we have enough of the picture from other major drillers who did file on time–drillers like Cabot Oil & Gas, Range Resources and Southwestern Energy–that we can tell you this: Production in PA from January to February went down by an appreciable amount. Currently, without EQT’s numbers in the mix, February production decreased 17% from January levels. Once missing numbers are added, we expect production to have decreased somewhere around 8-10% overall. Below we have a couple of charts with the natural gas production data rolled up, something you won’t find anywhere else!…
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    EIA Outlook: US Will be Energy Independent in 5-15 Years!

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), our favorite government agency, released a startling new analysis yesterday. As part of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015), EIA is predicting that sometime between 2020 and 2030 the United States will export as much energy as it imports. In other words, we will be 100% energy independent. In the next 5-15 years. Something that hasn’t happened since the 1950s when Doo-Wop music was all the rage. Just pause for a moment to reflect on that fact. True energy independence is something nobody thought possible, ever, just a few short years ago. How is it possible? The miracle of hydraulic fracturing and shale, of course…
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    First Time Ever: US Shale Produces Less Oil/Gas Month Over Month

    As MDN pointed out a month ago, the U.S. has seen a turning point in the production of shale oil and gas (see Turning Point: EIA Drilling Report Shows Slow Down in Production). Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is fresh out with its monthly Drilling Productivity Report for April/May. It shows a couple of firsts. Last month the major shale plays in the U.S. produced about as much oil as they did the month before (April estimates vs March estimates). But the major shale plays produced 221 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) more of natural gas in April than in March. This month that’s all changed. For the first time, the major shale plays, in May, will have produced 5,700 barrels of oil per day less than the month before, and 23 mmcf/d less of natural gas. However, the Marcellus and Utica shales will both produce more oil and gas in May than in April–although the rate of production in both has greatly slowed…
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    Dela. Riverkeeper Loses Yet Another Court Case – Wanted Raw Data

    Time to do a happy dance. THE Delaware Riverkeeper has lost yet another court case in their ongoing effort to make mischief with anything to do with fossil fuels. Maya van Rossum, head of the organization, uses fossil fuels every day of her life, but she hates them (a lotta angst and inner conflict, we imagine). She tried to stop Williams from clearing trees for a pipeline expansion until the clock ran out on April 1st in northeastern PA–you can’t cut from April through November because bats may roost in the trees. Of course where the tree cutting was happening is nowhere near the Delaware River Basin that the Riverkeeper organization is supposed to be minding with its non-profit status. Riverkeeper lost that court case, even though the case was filed in a liberal DC court (see Dela. Riverkeeper Loses Bid to Stop Transco Expansion in PA). Riverkeeper’s latest angle is to try and get the PA Dept. of Environmental Protection to turn over unanalyzed raw data the DEP has been collecting in a multi-year study on fracking and radiation levels. The DEP is still collecting the data, but Riverkeeper thought there might be some juicy bits they could exploit for fundraising headlines. So Riverkeeper sued under the open records law to get access. A Commonwealth Court panel of judges on Friday said “no”…
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    Baker Hughes Axes their Quarterly Well Count Report :-(

    In July 2013 Baker Hughes, the third largest oilfield services company in the U.S. that’s being forced to merge with Halliburton, the second largest oilfield services company, started a useful new quarterly report called the well count report (see BH Launches Well Count Report, Perfect Compliment to Rig Count). You know Baker Hughes as the company that releases weekly and monthly rig count data. Just yesterday our lead story was the latest rig count stats from BH (see BIG Decrease in BH Rig Counts, Including Marcellus/Utica). BH has counted and reported the number of active rigs drilling for the past 70+ years. With rigs becoming more efficient–fewer of them drilling more wells–it made sense to add a report that would track the number of new wells spud, or new wells started, in a given period of time. That was the quarterly well report. Unfortunately BH has just announced they are immediately discontinuing the well report, less than two years after they launched it…
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    BIG Decrease in BH Rig Counts, Including Marcellus/Utica

    over a cliffBaker Hughes, the company known for its publicly available rig count data (and it’s pink drill bits use in breast cancer awareness) yesterday published its official monthly rig count tally for March. In the public press release BH notes that (our language) rig counts have fallen off a cliff. The U.S. land-based rig count, most of which are used to drill in shale plays, sunk to 1,067, down 238 rigs from February (which is 18% in a single month), and down 683 from March 2014 (which is 39%). Not a pretty picture. MDN wondered if the same trend held for the Marcellus/Utica, so we ran the numbers for PA, OH and WV…
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    Johns Hopkins Says PA Fracking Causing High Radon in Nearby Homes

    Johns Hopkins University researchers are fresh out with a “fracked natural gas will give you cancer from radon” study. In the latest attack on fracking, published in Environmental Health Pespectives and titled “Predictors of Indoor Radon Concentrations in Pennsylvania, 1989–2013” (full copy below), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health researchers rather simplistically say that levels of radon in Pennsylvania homes have been going up since 2004–when the first Marcellus Shale well was drilled in the state and the likely source is Marcellus Shale wells. They say prior to 2004, levels of radon in PA homes was pretty much steady-state–that it did not increase. Since the “big thing” that’s happened over the past decade is a lot of Marcellus drilling, voilà, must be those nasty frackers are the source. They also notice that homes closer to fracked shale wells have higher concentrations of radon than homes not close to fracked shale wells. We’re fully in favor of public health research–we just wish it was a little more rigorous than what passes for research at the anti-drilling Johns Hopkins…
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