Research

CNG/LNG | Exporting | Industrywide Issues | Research

Moody’s: “Vast Majority” of LNG Export Projects Will be Canceled
April 9, 2015April 9, 2015

The analysts at Moody’s Investors Service have turned decidedly bearish on the plethora of proposed LNG (liquefied natural gas) export plants in both the U.S. and Canada. There are nearly 30 LNG export plants proposed in the U.S., 18 proposed projects in western Canada, and 4 in eastern Canada. One of them–Cove Point, Maryland, being built by Dominion–is right now in the midst of construction. The Cove Point plant will export Marcellus and Utica Shale gas to Japan and India. A number of the other LNG plants would also export Marcellus/Utica gas–in particular the four proposed plants in Nova Scotia (see Canadian LNG Exports, New England Pipelines & the Marcellus). However, according to Moody’s, the “vast majority” of proposed LNG projects, including the four in Nova Scotia, will never happen…
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Industrywide Issues | Research | Reserves (Proved and Unproved)

New Report: Marcellus/Utica Holds 35% of U.S. Recoverable Natgas
April 9, 2015April 9, 2015

The Potential Gas Committee (PGC), a private non-profit organization loosely affiliated with the Colorado School of Mines, performs a comprehensive study of potential supplies of natural gas in the United States every two years. In April of 2013 MDN reported the committee’s findings of just how much gas is down there (see Marcellus Region Contains Huge 33% of All U.S. Recoverable NatGas). It’s two years later and time for a new report. PGC is reporting because of shale and new technology, the U.S. now has more technically recoverable natural gas than it has ever had in its history–over 2,515 trillion cubic feet. Two years ago the Marcellus/Utica represented 33% of the entire supply of recoverable natural gas. Now? That number is up to 35%. Below we have the press release and detailed summary of the report, along with a slide deck published by the PGC yesterday…
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Anti-Drilling/Fossil Fuel | Industrywide Issues | Research | Reserves (Proved and Unproved)

Expert” Predicts Marcellus Production Will Peak in 2015
April 8, 2015April 8, 2015

An alarmist article appears on the Seeking Alpha website which posits (indeed strongly implies) that production in the Marcellus Shale will top out in 2015 and then begin to decline. The article bases this assertion on the observation that other shale plays in the U.S. have already turned the corner and have started to decline. The article is authored by Bill Powers–ring a bell? He’s been making the same prediction since 2012 when he published a “peak natural gas” book–and he’s been trying to peddle his book ever since (see Energy Industry Expert Says Shale Gas Will Last < 10 Years). Back in 2012 Powers said we have a 5-7 year supply of shale gas and that’s it. Last time we checked the numbers (now 2 1/2 years later from Powers’ original prediction date), shale production continues to go through the roof with no signs of slowing down, and proved reserves of shale gas continue to grow exponentially…
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Industrywide Issues | Research

USA is #1 Natgas and #1 Oil Producer in the World in 2014
April 8, 2015April 8, 2015

Some astonishing new numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For the third year in a row, when you add both natural gas and oil together, the United States has been the #1 producer of hydrocarbons in the world. But this is even more astonishing and something MDN’s friends disbelieve when we tell them: for the third year in a row the U.S. has produced more natural gas than another other country in the world (namely Russia, who is #2). And get this: for two years running the U.S. has produced more oil than any other country in the world, including Saudi Arabia. When was the last time you heard that on the evening news? Yeah, NEVER. Fracking is nothing short of a miracle that has radically changed the energy outlook of this country–and it’s a miracle that should be celebrated every chance we get. Here’s the numbers and story from the EIA with news that once again, USA is #1!!!…
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Industrywide Issues | Research | Reserves (Proved and Unproved)

EIA: Marcellus Biggest US Gas Field, Eagle Ford Biggest Oil Field
April 7, 2015April 7, 2015

Last week our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, published an update to their U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves research. The update/report, titled “Top 100 U.S. Oil and Gas Fields” (full copy below) shows the 100 largest U.S. oil and gas fields by their estimated 2013 proved reserves. That’s the top 100 oil fields, and a second list for the top 100 gas fields–based on 2013 estimates for reserves. It probably won’t surprise you to learn the #1 gas field in the U.S. is the Marcellus. It may (or may not) surprise you to learn the #1 oil field in the U.S. in 2013 was the Eagle Ford (again, based on reserves). It likely will surprise you, as it did us, to not find the Utica/Point Pleasant anywhere in either list! But then we remembered that the Utica was just getting under way in 2013. Still, not even in the top 100? Seems a bit off to us…
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Economic Impact | Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | Research

Nonpartisan Brookings Research Finds Huge Benefits from Fracking
April 7, 2015April 7, 2015

The nonpartisan Washington, DC-based think tank the Brookings Institution recently published a detailed paper on the enormous benefits of shale gas to American society as a whole. Titled “Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas” (full copy below), the research paper finds that the average American household that burns gas now saves $200 per year on the cost of that gas, a cumulative economic impact of adding $13 billion more in disposable income into the economy. In fact, as of 2013, Brookings finds the “fracking revolution” as they call it, has improved the economic well-being of consumers a staggering $74 billion per year. All because of the miracle of fracking…
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Air Quality | Industrywide Issues | Research

Study Finds “Fugitive Methane” from Local Utilities Down 36-70%
April 6, 2015April 5, 2015

Every now and again we revisit the manhunt for that vile villain and fugitive from justice–Fugitive Methane (FM for short). FM loves to escape into the atmosphere where, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, it is “a particularly powerful climate warmer – 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year timeframe.” Never mind that the biggest source of FM in the U.S. is cows burping (see Biggest Producer of “Fugitive” Methane is… Cows?!), and never mind the reason for expensive and costly EPA rules to prevent so-called FM in the oil and gas industry is to prop up renewables (see Real Reason for EPA Methane Rules: Prop Up Expensive Renewables). The manhunt for FM in the energy industry continues. We have some disturbing news–for global warming nutters that is. FM coming from LDCs (local distribution companies, or your local gas utility) is, according to a study just published in the peer reviewed journal Environmental Science and Technology, 36% to 70% LOWER than FM levels from the early 1990s, the last time such measurements were made. The kicker? The Environmental Defense Fund was part of the research team studying it and publishing these findings, along with lead researchers from Washington State University. You can be sure this study will get zero pickup from biased mainstream media…
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Broome County | Industrywide Issues | New York | Research | Statewide NY

PA Health Expert to Address NY “Study” on Fracking Health Impacts
April 6, 2015April 5, 2015

In December, Dr. Theodore Them, MD, MS, PhD, MPH was a guest on the Joint Landowners Coalition of New York (JLCNY) Good News Table Talk Radio program (see PA Public Health Expert Destroys NY Health Study, Frack Ban). We are excited to announce Dr. Them is returning for another session this coming Sunday evening at 7 pm on Binghamton radio station WNBF 1290 (listen online here). Dr. Them has reviewed the so-called health review peddled by New York State Acting Health Commission Howard Zucker and will share his findings about the MANY shortcomings in Zucker’s “review”…
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Industrywide Issues | Research

Sexy New Marcellus Maps & Info from EIA
April 2, 2015April 2, 2015

The number-crunching wizards at our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), have constructed yet another superb report. Using well data provided by various state agencies, EIA wizards have constructed a series of new maps showing the extent and structure of the Marcellus Shale–where its productive and prospectively productive regions are located. Here’s some sexy new maps and important information to go along with them from our friends at the EIA…
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Industrywide Issues | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Research | Statewide NY | Statewide OH | Statewide PA | Statewide VA | Statewide WV | Virginia | West Virginia

USGS Says There’s Plenty More Fossil Fuels to Come in Appalachia
March 31, 2015March 31, 2015

There were plenty of fossil fuels in the past 150 years in Appalachia–an area stretching from the northeast to the south–and there’s plenty more where those came from. That’s the conclusion from an updated series of papers collected together in a new U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper (#1708) called “Coal and Petroleum Resources in the Appalachian Basin: Distribution, Geologic Framework, and Geochemical Character” (free access, linked below). The USGS says, “Professional Paper 1708 is a modern, indepth collection of reports, cross sections, and maps that describe the geology of the Appalachian basin and its fossil fuel resources. This publication supplements and updates older USGS regional studies of Appalachian basin coal and petroleum resources.” Here’s an abstract/summary of what’s in the new report…
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Hydraulic Fracturing | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Research | Statewide PA

Syracuse U Study: Fracking Doesn’t Cause Methane in PA Water Wells
March 30, 2015March 30, 2015

You can’t tell us there isn’t political bias in the world of so-called hard science and whether or not important research gets reported. In 2011 Duke University published a shoddy “study” that attempted to show a link between the presence of 68 shale wells and high levels of methane in nearby groundwater supplies (see MDN In-depth: Duke University Study Links Marcellus Shale Gas Drilling with Methane Contamination of Water Wells). That study got all sorts of coverage in the media. After their sloppy work was exposed by a number of scientists, the same group doubled down to try and salvage what little credibility they had left by publishing a second study in 2013 concluding the same thing (see Duke Study #2: Drilling Causes Methane Migration in Water Wells?). More media fanfare of “See, it really is true!” There were several fatal flaws in Duke’s research: they cherry picked the wells they used, they used a small data set (68 water wells in the first study, 141 in the second), and they had no baseline measurements–no “before and after” measurements to know if the methane was already present (as it so often is in northeastern PA). So what if some real researchers were to come along and use a data set hundreds of times larger (data on 11,000+ northeast PA water wells) and what if that data has baseline information–the before picture. Seems like that would settle it, right? That would address the weaknesses and shortfalls of the previous, shoddy research. Such a study was just published in the peer reviewed journal Environmental Science & Technology…
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Crime | Industrywide Issues | Pennsylvania | Research | Statewide PA

Report: Effects of Marcellus Shale Dev on Criminal Justice System
March 30, 2015March 30, 2015

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania (CRP), a bipartisan, bicameral legislative agency that serves as a resource for rural policy within the Pennsylvania General Assembly, continues to pump out the reports on the Marcellus Shale and its impacts on the state at a prodigious rate. They issued the third report in a series in January, another in February, and a third in March (see New Report: Housing and Marcellus Shale Development in PA). The reports each focus on a single topic and how the Marcellus Shale industry in the state is affecting (or not) that particular constituency. The newest/fourth this year (sixth in the series) study from the CRP is titled “Effects of Marcellus Shale Development on the Criminal Justice System” (full copy below). MDN friend Tom Shepstone of NaturalGasNow.org describes the report this way: “Once again, the narrative is an equivocal document apparently intended to give any reader something they’ll like. The data, however, is extensive, there is none of the unprofessional focus group commentary that has characterized some previous reports in this series and there are actual comparisons between Marcellus and non-Marcellus counties that allow for more useful analysis. What’s most interesting about the report is that it completely voids most of the fractivist junk science and junk journalism we’ve seen on the subject of shale crime.”…
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Industrywide Issues | Ohio | Research | Statewide OH

OOGA’s DeBrosse Report: 2014 a Breakout Year for Utica Shale
March 27, 2015March 27, 2015

Each year the 3,200-member Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA) issue the DeBrosse Memorial Report (full copy below). The report is a high level look at where (and how much) drilling there has been in the state–and what they’re finding (methane, oil, NGLs). The latest report, recounting 2014, was released at the recent OOGA Annual Winter Meeting in Columbus. Needless to say the latest report shows the exponentially increasing importance of the Utica Shale in the state. Last year a full 61% of all new wells drilled and completed in the state were shale wells. The report also shows the state produced 11 million barrels of oil from the Utica Shale. In 2013 the Utica produced 4.3 million barrels of oil. Welcome to Utica-land!…
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Industrywide Issues | Research

Govt Report Says Shale Oil Will Run Out Soon, Start Drilling Offshore
March 27, 2015March 27, 2015

We started by laughing out loud, then we grew perplexed, as we read a story by the Associated Press about a new study being released today in Washington, DC. The study is from the National Petroleum Council–NOT to be confused with our industry’s leading trade organization the American Petroleum Institute. Two completely different things. The National Petroleum Council (NPC) is a group of 200 people appointed by the Secretary of Energy who serve at his (or her) leisure and provide advice to the Secretary. The organization was created under President Harry Truman in 1946 and after the Dept. of Energy was created it was reassigned to that department. What’s curious is that it is funded by private sources. It’s a government-run organization providing information used to make government policy but funded by private sources–all somewhat shadowy if you ask us. Regardless, this group, which is comprised of individuals from the oil and gas industry, academe, environmental groups, and businesses of various kinds, is publishing a report due out today for Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz that says, in essence, shale oil in the lower 48 will run out sometime in the next decade and we should begin drilling like crazy right now off the shore of Alaska. In other words, its more peak oil bupkis…
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Industrywide Issues | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Research | Statewide OH | Statewide PA | Statewide WV | West Virginia

Even with Capex Budgets/Jobs Slashed, NE Production Still Rising
March 25, 2015March 25, 2015

Capital expenditure budgets slashed 20%, 30%, 40% and more. Mass firings in the thousands by oilfield services companies. The mad dash to raise cash to keep going. Shutting in wells to slow or stop production. Some days it seems like the news is all doom and gloom. But what’s this? Even though rig counts are down, capex is slashed and jobs are dwindling, production in the Marcellus/Utica will continue to go UP in 2015. You read that right. How can that be? According to some excellent research published by NGI’s Shale Daily, production will continue to go up because “efficiencies in drilling techniques and low operating costs are overcoming the energy industry downturn.” That is, good old American ingenuity is once again figuring out how to do more with less. What did the ace reporters at Shale Daily discover when they dug down into the data?…
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Economic Impact | Energy Services | Industrywide Issues | PennEast Pipeline | Pennsylvania | Pipelines | Research | Statewide PA

New Study Finds PennEast Pipeline to Save PA & NJ Residents $900M
March 25, 2015March 25, 2015

Concentric Energy Advisors Inc., an independent management consulting and financial advisory firm focused on the North American energy industry, has just published a new report that shows the economic impact from the PennEast Pipeline will be huge for both Pennsylvania and New Jersey residents. The study, titled “Estimated Energy Market Savings From Additional Pipeline Infrastructure Serving Eastern Pennsylvania And New Jersey” (full copy embedded below) finds that PA electric and natural gas customers will see a combined savings of over $500 million, while NJ electric and gas customers will see a combined savings of nearly $400 million…
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