Enverus Rig Count @ 871 (+3); Marcellus @ 46 (+1), Utica @ 11 (+1)
The Enverus rig count, as of Wednesday, stood at 871, up by three from the week before. We are now 33 rigs ABOVE the pre-pandemic high of 838 rigs. Finally! Last week the Marcellus operated 46 rigs (up by one), and the Utica operated 11 rigs (also up by one), for a total of 57 active rigs in the M-U. Rigs chasing oil declined by four leaving 662, while natural gas-prone rigs gained seven for a total 209. The Haynesville, which is the chief competitor to the Marcellus/Utica, had 75 active rigs operating last week. The Haynesville continues to beat the pants off the M-U with respect to rigs and drilling new wells.
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Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) grab the official Henry Hub pricing dart board and play a quick game to determine what price they will predict for the average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas for the rest of this year, and an average price for all of next year. Last month the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) prediction for Henry Hub natural gas in 2H22 was $7.54 per MMBtu, and for all of next year $5.10, due to an increase in production (see 
In a new report published this week by the Manhattan Institute, “The “Energy Transition” Delusion: A Reality Reset” (full copy below), Mark Mills takes on the dangerous delusion of a global energy transition that eliminates the use of fossil fuels. Looking at energy markets and public policy around the world, Mills asks readers of the report to “consider that years of hypertrophied rhetoric and trillions of dollars of spending and subsidies on a transition have not significantly changed the energy landscape.” Here are the facts: The world still depends on hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) for 84% of all energy, just two percentage points lower than 20 years ago. Solar and wind technologies today supply barely 5% of global energy. Indeed it is a dangerous self-delusion to say we can dump fossil energy anytime soon–within the next 50-100 years. At least, not without a mass extinction (execution) of the human race.
We spotted a Reuters story with the headline, “U.S. oil & gas rig count falls for first time in 25 months – Baker Hughes.” We thought, “Oh oh, has the recovery in drilling finally peaked?” So we dug out the numbers for ourselves. We wanted to know how rig counts in the M-U (in PA, OH, and WV) are doing, as well as the total U.S. rig count. What we found is that the Reuters story is not accurate–one of the very few times we’ve observed Reuters being wrong about something.
Will oil and gas companies put their extra cash to good use on more fossil energy exploration and production? Or will they blow it on the myth of green energy? Powerhouse consulting and accounting firm Deloitte seems to think O&G will begin to invest more in “green” capital expenditures, raising it from the current 5% average to perhaps 30%. We think that’s a waste. Deloitte has just published a new report, “Striking the Balance: How and Where Will O&G Producers Deploy their Cash?” (full copy below), which examines how O&G companies can “play a key role over the next decade in creating synergy between energy security and energy transition, while helping commercialize essential low-carbon technologies.” Energy “transition” is a misnomer. Read today’s article/interview with Enterprise Products Partners.
Revenue, free cash flow, and even profitability for Marcellus/Utica drillers (in fact, pretty much all oil and gas drillers) were through the roof in the second quarter of 2022. Rising oil prices and surging natural gas realizations drove per-unit revenues to a 15-year high. Almost all of the extra money coming in went to the bottom line. What about the third quarter that we’re now in? RBN Energy reports “clouds are emerging on the horizon for U.S. E&Ps in the third quarter.” What clouds?
Along with Harvard, Yale University used to be one of the top two higher ed schools in the country. Wow, how the mighty have fallen! Yale is a husk, a shell of what it once was. Yale now puts political ideology above science and generates garbage, calling it “research.” Yale is experiencing some major cognitive dissonance. At various points over the past decade, Yale researchers have claimed fracking does NOT contaminate water aquifers (see 
Yesterday the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for April through June 2022 (full copy below). There were 133 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 2Q22, an increase of 13 wells (10.8%) compared to 2Q21. However, natural gas production volume was 1,836 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2Q22, a slight decrease (-0.9%) from 2Q21. It is the second quarterly decrease in production in a row. It appears that maybe PA has hit a plateau for natural gas production.
Powerhouse consulting and accounting firm Ernst & Young (YN) has just published and released a new study called “US oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study” (full copy below). The EY study shows U.S. oil and gas producers “recovered and reset” in 2021, posting increased profits of $73.7 billion and $211.9 billion in revenues, with significant deal activity that drove $144.1 billion in capital expenditures. The study documents how the industry’s 50 largest publicly traded exploration and production (E&P) companies responded to higher commodity prices in 2021 with an analysis of reserve and production information, as well as their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosures.
Global research firm Wood Mackenzie recently published an analysis of where investors are putting their money in the energy sector. Unsurprisingly (for us), WoodMac found investors are plowing money like crazy into “pure play” (meaning single focus) oil and natural gas companies instead of into companies that dabble in “low-carbon diversification” (i.e. renewables). Fossil energy companies that stick to their knitting (stay focused on fossil energy) are outperforming renewable-focused companies big time.
Yesterday MDN poked fun at the gyrating up-and-down predictions from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) with respect to the spot price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub (see 
As we point out in a companion story today, some in the oil and gas industry have sold out and are supporting the Manchin-Schumer methane tax. It’s sad (and angering). As we point out in that post, those companies believe they are insulated from the effects of the methane tax because they have already deployed technology to reduce methane emissions from their operations. But what happens when the federal government changes the rules by telling them their technology is junk and they have to replace it with new government-blessed technology? Right on cue, the Dept. of Energy announced it will spend $32 million on “research” to figure out what kind of technology can lower methane emissions.
Enverus, a leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, earlier this week released Macro Forecaster, a new report that assesses the continued impact of COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the weakening global economy on near-term oil and gas balances. Enverus predicts the price of oil will be somewhere in the range of $80s or $90s per barrel by the end of this year. The company also predicts natural gas will slump to about $4.50/MMBtu by next summer.