Research

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    Fracking Added $3.5 Trillion, 4.6M Jobs to Economy in 3 Years

    New research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals a couple of astonishing facts: From 2012-2014, hydraulic fracturing was responsible for creating $3.5 trillion worth of new wealth. We can’t even get our brains around that number! Another fact: From 2012-2014, fracking create 4.6 million new jobs. Although we’ve experienced a big downturn since 2014, can you imagine how the fracking industry will come back under President Trump? Happy day are here again! More from the latest research report by NBER, titled “Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution”…
    Read More “Fracking Added $3.5 Trillion, 4.6M Jobs to Economy in 3 Years”

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    LSE Study: Fracking has Made US Manufacturing More Competitive

    The London School of Economics recently released a research study that prominently features the Marcellus/Utica. In “On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution” (full copy below), the authors find America’s shale revolution is revitalizing American manufacturing. If we could vastly simplify the research in just a few words, it is this: While we have enough shale gas to export plenty of it, exporting it is not as economic as exporting oil due to the elaborate processes to liquefy and regassify natural gas–therefore a lot of the gas stays right here at home, making the U.S. one of (if not the) cheapest places on the planet to establish manufacturing plants, especially for manufacturers that use natural gas and NGLs (natural gas liquids). Therefore, manufacturing, especially in the petrochemical sector, is ramping back up in the U.S. The authors cite a study that says for every two jobs created by the fracking industry, another one job is created in the manufacturing sector. The paper also concludes that the shale revolution saved Obama’s bacon by creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. Without shale drilling we would not have recovered as quickly as we did from the economic near-collapse of 2007/2008. Here’s a summary of the research, followed by a full copy of the published paper…
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    Société Générale Questions OPEC Oil Cut Agreement; Russia Lying?

    Two weeks ago MDN editor Jim Willis attended the “Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum 2016” held in New York City (see Harold Hamm Talks About Trump, OPEC, and Global Warming). Our previous report focused on the keynote address and Q&A with Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm. However, there was a second keynoter–for lunch–that riveted the attendees’ attention. That person was HE Abdalla Saem El-Badri, the former Secretary General of OPEC. While the audience munched away on salmon and Cornish game hen, John Kingston, director of S&P Global Market Insights sat on stage with El-Badri and peppered him with questions, mainly about the recent OPEC agreement to cut production among member states by 1.2 million barrels per day, and a follow-on agreement by non-OPEC members (like Russia) to cut another 600,000 barrels per day. At one point Kingston grilled El-Badri about those cuts, recounting that several speakers during the day had voiced the opinion that there would be perhaps 70-80% compliance with the proposed cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. El-Badri voiced his opinion that “there must by 100% compliance” with the stated cuts–otherwise the price of oil will not hit and remain at the target of $55-$65 per barrel. Kingston was, understandably, incredulous, and continued to hammer El-Badri on the point–but El-Badri did not relent from his position that all participants “must” adhere to the cuts in the plan. Kingston is not the only skeptic when it comes to the cuts. The analysts at banking giant Société Générale maintain (in so many words) that Russia, in particular, is lying and will not cut 300,000 barrels per day of production as promised. Here’s SG’s best thinking about what will happen with the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts, and their prediction that the price of oil in 2017 will not hit $55-$65, but instead stay in the $50-$60 range…
    Read More “Société Générale Questions OPEC Oil Cut Agreement; Russia Lying?”

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    Backlogs in the Marcellus/Utica – COBs and DUCs

    We’ve seen signs of increased drilling in the Marcellus/Utica. Just look at the Baker Hughes rig counts month by month. Ever so gradually, the number of rigs operating in our region is creeping back up. The smart analysts at BTU Analytics have been crunching the numbers and looking at the data–and they have a theory about why new drilling is coming back, very soon, in the Marcellus/Utica. It all has to do with the backlog. You’ve heard about DUCs–drilled but uncompleted wells. But have you ever heard of COBs? That’s Completed wells on backlog. Depending on where you are located in PA, COBs have a great deal to do with where drilling will happen…
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    Cheapest Sources of Electricity? Natural Gas & Wind, Says UT Study

    Natural gas and wind are the lowest-cost technology options for new electricity generation across much of the U.S. when cost, public health impacts and environmental effects are considered. So says a new research paper released by The University of Texas at Austin. Researchers assessed multiple generation technologies including coal, natural gas, solar, wind and nuclear. Their findings, as depicted in a series of maps illustrating the cost of each generation technology on a county-by-county basis throughout the U.S., are featured in a new white paper titled “New U.S. Power Costs: by County, with Environmental Externalities” (full copy below). What’s interesting to us is who helped fund the research. Two organizations helping pay the bill were the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation and the Environmental Defense Fund. That is, those with a bias against fossil fuels. We wonder if they’ll ask for their grant money back? Here’s a summary of the research, followed by the full report…
    Read More “Cheapest Sources of Electricity? Natural Gas & Wind, Says UT Study”

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    Marcellus Gas Part of “Low Carbon” Research Project at Penn State

    The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection is using an unspecified amount of grant money from the U.S. Department of Energy to fund a Penn State pilot project that combines a natural gas-fired electric plant with solar cell and battery energy storage systems in a hybrid system to power several office buildings, a sewage pump station and several Penn State training center facilities. The hope is to prove developing “microgrids” like this one can lead to a “low-carbon footprint.” Hey, at least they wised up and are using Marcellus natural gas (a hated fossil fuel) as part of their “low carbon” research. Here’s the details on the latest big money project, using taxpayer dollars, under way at Penn State…
    Read More “Marcellus Gas Part of “Low Carbon” Research Project at Penn State”

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    EIA: US Oil & NatGas Proved Reserves Take a Dip in 2015

    Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), yesterday released their annual report of proved oil and natural gas reserves in the United States for 2015. The report, titled “U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2015” (full copy embedded below) shows proved reserves for natural gas dropped by 64.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), or 16.6%. U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves also decreased–from 39.9 billion barrels to 35.2 billion barrels (down 11.8%). The drop in proved reserves for gas and oil comes after last year’s record high proved reserves (see EIA: Shale Rockets U.S. Proved O&G Reserves to New Records). Is this a big deal? What the heck are “proved” reserves, anyway? Glad you asked…
    Read More “EIA: US Oil & NatGas Proved Reserves Take a Dip in 2015”

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    Job Ads for Oil & Gas Workers Up 50% Since August

    Ever use the job site called Indeed? The site aggregates job ads from everywhere it can find them from around the web–into one very useful search engine. Think of it as Google for job listings. Indeed has its own blog and employs its own economists to analyze trends. Today the site released data that shows oil and gas industry job postings have spiked up 50% since a low in August, which is a good sign that the industry is, indeed (pun intended) turning around. Here’s what the Indeed economist has to say…
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    Obama EPA One Last Swipe at Fossil Fuels, Changes Fracking Report

    We now know that it’s possible to bribe people who work for the federal Environmental Protection Agency. That is, big money donors DO have a say in how “science” is presented by the agency. The one great, huge, towering problem that anti-drillers have is that there is no scientific evidence that supports their wild claims that fracking contaminates water–which is their favorite lie to spread. When the Environmental Protection Agency arrived at the same conclusion–fracking doesn’t pollute water–after four years of studying it, that really took the wind out of the sails of rabid fossil fuel haters (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). The EPA reviewed research from over 950 studies and even conducted nine of their own primary studies. Conclusion: fracking doesn’t pollute water supplies. What’s a good fossil fuel hater to do? Pressure the EPA to change the outcome of their study. And pressure they did. So much so that in the final version of the report just released (full copy below), the EPA slightly modified the language. In the original draft report, the language says, “hydraulic fracturing activities have not led to widespread, systemic impacts to drinking water resources.” The final report deletes that statement and provides language that says “under some circumstances” the fracking process can harm local water supplies, but because there are “gaps” in the data, the EPA can’t say how often or how much such impacts happen. In other words, all of the science is still the same. There is no evidence that fracking hurts water. The EPA simply gave their Big Green friends some headlines to play with for a few days. Perhaps it’s no coincidence the report is 666 pages long…
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    EIA Dec Drilling Rpt: Marcellus Production Continues Rocket Ride

    Yesterday MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. For the past two reports, estimating production for November and December, Marcellus natgas has increased. The trend continues in this latest report, which forecasts production for the coming month of January. The October report predicted Marcellus production would increase in November by 73 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). The November report predicted Marcellus production would increase in December by 130 MMcf/d. The current December report predicts Marcellus production will go up by another 160 MMcf/d in January. Yikes! Another trend observed: four of the seven shale plays will increase production in January, one (the Utica) will produce about the same in January, and only two will produce less gas in January than they did in December. Translation: shale gas production is once again on the rise–which breaks a five month record of month over month declines across all seven plays. It seems we’ve turned a corner…
    Read More “EIA Dec Drilling Rpt: Marcellus Production Continues Rocket Ride”

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    New Study: O&G Exploration Bounces Back in 2017, Profitable Again

    Global research firm Wood Mackenzie, a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world’s natural resources sector, recently published a new study that predicts global oil and gas exploration and production (i.e. drilling) in 2017 is going to bounce back–in a pretty big way. E&P companies in North America are forecast to boost their capital expenditures in 2017 by 24.5%–the first increase since 2014. Perhaps some independent verification of that prediction has just been provided by EQT. As we note in a related story today, EQT is boosting their capex next year to $1.5 billion–a 50% increase (see EQT 2017 Forecast: Drilling 119 Marcellus, 81 UD, 7 Utica Wells). However, the trend in recent months will continue toward “a smaller, more efficient industry.” In other words, we won’t see the roaring days of a few years ago, but at least we’ll see an uptick in new drilling in the coming year. Here’s what the brains at Wood Mackenzie predict will happen in the next 12 months…
    Read More “New Study: O&G Exploration Bounces Back in 2017, Profitable Again”

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    Rocket Ride Continues for OH Utica NatGas Production in 3Q16

    The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) has just issued production numbers for the third quarter of 2016. Compared with third quarter 2015, production numbers in 3Q16 continued to be a mixed bag, as was the case in 2Q16 (see Ohio 2Q16 Utica Production – Who Produced O&G Where & How Much). Oil production in 3Q16 dropped by 34% over a year earlier and down 18% from 2Q16–that’s the bad news. But natural gas production from shale continues to be a rocket ship. Natgas production is up 45% year over year. In 2Q16 natgas production was up 51% y/y–so the trend continues. Ascent Resources (formerly Aubrey McClendon’s American Energy) dethroned last quarter’s CNX Gas as 3Q16’s top producing gas well, yielding nearly 1.6 billion cubic feet for the quarter. Also interesting to note, last quarter’s CNX well is located in Monroe County–this quarter’s Ascent winning well is located in Belmont County. Eclipse Resources once again had the #1 producing oil well in Guernsey County, the monster Purple Hayes, which produced an astonishing 74,954 barrels of oil in 3Q16, after producing 71,072 barrels of oil in 2Q16 (#1 well in 2Q16). What a great well! Below we have the ODNR’s high level overview of the numbers, along with MDN’s own exclusive analysis showing: the top 25 producing gas wells, the top 25 producing oil wells, and then the top 25 gas and oil wells as ranked by average production per day. There is a difference!…
    Read More “Rocket Ride Continues for OH Utica NatGas Production in 3Q16”

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    EPA Final Fracking Report (May) Say Fracking Doesn’t Harm Water

    In 2015 the federal Environmental Protection Agency, after spending four years to evaluate 950 studies on hydraulic fracturing, conducted nine of their own original studies, and came to the conclusion that there is no “widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water” from fracking (see EPA Draft Report Says Fracking Doesn’t Pollute Groundwater Supplies). That finding caused anti-fossil fuel wackos to become apoplectic. Antis immediately began a campaign of bullying and intimidation against the EPA to get them to change the finding. That is, to cheat. It looked like it was working when the EPA appointed a special, stacked panel to review the original draft report, and (unsurprisingly) they questioned the original finding (see Will EPA Whore Itself to Antis and Change Fracking Water Study?). The final report is due to be released soon–before the Obamadroids leave town in January. Everyone is waiting to see what the EPA will say in the final report. Interestingly to us, the Institute for Policy Innovation (IPI) says the EPA will “likely” stick to the original conclusion–that fracking does not contaminate groundwater…
    Read More “EPA Final Fracking Report (May) Say Fracking Doesn’t Harm Water”

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    Baker Hughes Nov US Rig Count Up by 36; M-U Count Up 4

    The worldwide Baker Hughes rig count was up by 5 in November, from 920 in October to 925 in November. That reverses a brief slide back in October when rigs worldwide slide back by 14. However, the rig count in the U.S. went up for the fifth month in a row. The average U.S. rig count for November was 580, up 36 from the 544 counted in October. That’s a two month increase of 71! The Marcellus/Utica rig count was up for the fourth month running. In November the M/U rig count went up by 4 (second month in a row it’s gone up 4) with 2 additions in PA (now 27 rigs) and 2 in OH (now 16 rigs). WV stayed even running with an average of 10 rigs…
    Read More “Baker Hughes Nov US Rig Count Up by 36; M-U Count Up 4”

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    Report Sums Up 2016 Northeast Pipe Projects in One Word: Delayed

    The Northeast Gas Association (NGA) is a regional trade association that focuses on education and training, technology research and development, operations, planning, and increasing public awareness of natural gas in the Northeast U.S. NGA represents natural gas distribution companies, transmission companies, liquefied natural gas importers, and associate member companies. These companies provide natural gas to over 10 million customers in nine states. The NGA has just released a 96-page report called the 2016 Statistical Guide (full copy below)–a sort of “year in review” for the gas industry in the northeast. If you could boil it all down, the word that appears prominently throughout is “delay” with respect to important natgas pipeline projects. From the Constitution, which should have already been built by now, to smaller projects, delays were the prominent trend for 2016…
    Read More “Report Sums Up 2016 Northeast Pipe Projects in One Word: Delayed”

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    Short-Term Energy Outlook: NatGas Price Will Avg $3.27/Mcf in 2017

    Once a month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA issued their latest edition on Tuesday. We have a full copy below. We’ve grabbed out the section on natural gas because it includes a couple of key points: (1) EIA predicts that natural gas production in the U.S. for 2016 will see a healthy decline over 2015 levels–1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) less in 2016. That’s the first annual production decline since 2005! (2) The EIA predicts the average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub will climb from $2.49/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2016 to a whopping $3.27/Mcf in 2017. Why the jump? Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports. Here’s the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report…
    Read More “Short-Term Energy Outlook: NatGas Price Will Avg $3.27/Mcf in 2017”