Research

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    Law Prof Writes About Challenges of Surface v Mineral Rights in WV

    A West Virginia law professor and one of his students (who went on to become a trial attorney with the U.S. Dept. of Justice), have just published a research paper on the topic of surface and mineral rights in the Mountain State. The paper, titled “Horizontal Drilling Vertical Problems: Property Law Challenges from the Marcellus Shale Boom” (full copy below) discusses property law challenges that can impede business development and negatively impact landowners and mineral owners in shale regions, with a focus on the West Virginia Marcellus. The paper explains the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing process. A widespread problem in WV is that (because of coal) in many cases the owners of the mineral rights under the ground are not the same people who own the property on the surface. The paper makes the point that while courts can handle one-off cases, the WV legislature should develop better “large-scale policies” to deal with an ongoing, contentious situation…
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    Baker Hughes Rig Counts Continued to Rocket Higher in December

    The Baker Hughes rig count continued to rocket skyward in December–on all levels. The international rig count (worldwide) was 929, up 4 from the 925 counted in November. However, in the U.S., the December rig count was 634, up a whopping 54 rigs from the 580 counted in November. And the Marcellus/Utica had equally good news. The combined rig counts for PA-OH-WV was 58, up by 5 rigs from November’s 53. Cool! The biggest gainer was PA, with a count of 31 (up 4 from 27 in November). OH gained 2 and now stands at 18 active rigs. WV, on the other hand, lost a single rig and the count stood at an average of 9 rigs. Something else to note, December’s M-U rig count of 58 is the highest average monthly rig count in 2016. On the chart below you will see we hit our low point in June/July when the count was 36. Since that time we have gained rigs every single month…
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    Make Marcellus Drilling Better – by Using a Math Formula?!

    Can you actually use a mathematical formula to figure out better ways to plan how to drill shale gas wells? It turns out the answer to that question is a resounding, “Yes!” A chemical engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, along with several Ph.D. students have, working with EQT, pioneered research that figured out how to turn 14,000 water truck trips to a well site into 1,400 trips–an “order of magnitude” difference. That is a big deal in the drilling industry. Using mathematical formulas–something called “mixed-integer optimization”–Professor Ignacio Grossmann and the other researchers tackled how to make processes in the shale gas industry more efficient. They published a paper in the AIChE Journal in 2016 titled, “Strategic Planning, Design and Development of the Shale Gas Supply Chain Network” (full copy below). The paper “presents a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to optimally determine the number of wells to drill at every location, the size of gas processing plants, the section and length of pipelines for gathering raw gas and delivering processed gas and by-products, the power of gas compressors, and the amount of freshwater required from reservoirs for drilling and hydraulic fracturing so as to maximize the economics of the project.” Er, right. As you can tell, it’s complex. But it’s also very interesting and relevant for drillers and others in the industry, which is why we bring it to you. Below is a quick summary/overview of the paper, a video of Prof. Grossmann describing the research, and a copy of the paper itself…
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    EIA Annual Energy Outlook: US is Net Energy Exporter Within 10 Yrs

    The United States is already on the cusp of energy independence, thanks to the shale revolution. What does that mean? It means when you consider how much energy we produce and export, and how much we consume and import, at the end of the day, we are producing as much energy as we consume. But it gets complicated. We still import a lot of oil from the Middle East and elsewhere. We import (and export) oil via pipelines to Canada. We also still import natural gas. But at some point the U.S. will export more than it imports. That is, we won’t only produce as much as we consume, we’ll produce extra energy–and sell it abroad to other countries. We will become a “net exporter.” When will that happen? According our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it will happen in the next 10 years–or less. The EIA has just released its “Annual Energy Outlook 2017” (full copy below). In the report the number crunchers at EIA look at multiple scenarios and conclude that under most scenarios we are a net exporter by 2026, and in some of those scenarios, it happens even sooner. That would be the first time since 1953 that our country has exported more energy than it uses. Not surprisingly, LNG (liquefied natural gas) plays a critical role in our country becoming a net exporter. Here’s what the EIA said in releasing the 2017 annual report…
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    API Annual Report: Production Up, Environment Cleaner, Thx to Gas

    The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) president and CEO, Jack Gerard, delivered the keynote address at API’s Seventh Annual State of American Energy event in Washington, DC on Wednesday. At the same event the API released the “State of American Energy 2017” report (full copy below) highlighting the energy issues that will shape America’s economic and political news this year. Gerard says we have now fully debunked the insane ramblings of the environmental left in this country, proving that we can grow our energy use and our energy production, while at the same time creating a cleaner environment. According to the EIA, in the first six months of 2016, carbon emissions from electricity generation were at their lowest point in 25 years even as electricity demand rose–thanks to greater use of natural gas. Below are highlights of Gerard’s speech along with a copy of the newly released report…
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    Study Claims Listening to Fracking Will Make Ya Sick – a Joke?

    Is it April Fool’s Day? Wait, no, it’s January 4th, not April 1st. But honestly, we thought it must be a joke to read that scientists doing “research” claim that living close to a fracking site will make you sick. Not from air pollution. Not from water pollution. But from noise pollution. Yep, loud noises nearby cause things like “stress” and “annoyance” and even diabetes (!) according to Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Healthy Energy (PSEHE) and Michael McCawley, the interim chair of the Occupational and Environmental Health Department at West Virginia University. The study, titled “Public health implications of environmental noise associated with unconventional oil and gas development,” goes for the jugular–making a case for stricter regulations and larger setbacks (i.e. less drilling). Yet, the researchers don’t do any of their own in-the-field research! They rely on out-of-date research done by others. And they show no causal link between health impacts and shale drilling in the “study”…
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    Univ Chicago, Princeton & MIT Study: Fracking Benefits Everyone

    A new study by researchers at the University of Chicago, Princeton University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) finds that the benefits of fracking outweigh the costs. You read that right. Three big lefty schools have released a study saying fracking benefits everyone. “The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing” (full copy below) looked at nine different shale basins. The authors say fracking activity yields $1,300 to $1,900 per year on average to each household in those basins. That’s a $64 billion yearly benefit–from fracking. So says the libs. Fracking benefits include, “a 7 percent increase in average income, driven by rises in wages and royalty payments, a 10 percent increase in employment, and a 6 percent increase in housing prices.” It is the largest and most comprehensive study of its kind…
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    Tragically Flawed Iowa Study Says Marcellus Dirt is Radioactive

    Earlier this week so-called researchers at the University of Iowa released a tragically flawed study that purports to say Marcellus Shale drill cuttings (rock and dirt from drilling) are radioactive and if you put them in your landfill, you’ll start to glow in the dark. That’s the upshot from “research” that used just three samples FROM A SINGLE WELL as the basis of the “study.” This is anti-fossil fuel hogwash by a group of grad students who want to launch their careers by making a name for themselves. What they’ve actually done is ended their short careers with shoddy research. The paper is titled “Disequilibrium of Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) in Drill Cuttings from a Horizontal Drilling Operation” and appears in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters. Below is a summary of the “research” followed by an analysis by MDN friend and intrepid writer Nicole Jacobs, writing for Energy in Depth. Nicole rips apart this new study and exposes its tragic flaws…
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    Fracking Added $3.5 Trillion, 4.6M Jobs to Economy in 3 Years

    New research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals a couple of astonishing facts: From 2012-2014, hydraulic fracturing was responsible for creating $3.5 trillion worth of new wealth. We can’t even get our brains around that number! Another fact: From 2012-2014, fracking create 4.6 million new jobs. Although we’ve experienced a big downturn since 2014, can you imagine how the fracking industry will come back under President Trump? Happy day are here again! More from the latest research report by NBER, titled “Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution”…
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    LSE Study: Fracking has Made US Manufacturing More Competitive

    The London School of Economics recently released a research study that prominently features the Marcellus/Utica. In “On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution” (full copy below), the authors find America’s shale revolution is revitalizing American manufacturing. If we could vastly simplify the research in just a few words, it is this: While we have enough shale gas to export plenty of it, exporting it is not as economic as exporting oil due to the elaborate processes to liquefy and regassify natural gas–therefore a lot of the gas stays right here at home, making the U.S. one of (if not the) cheapest places on the planet to establish manufacturing plants, especially for manufacturers that use natural gas and NGLs (natural gas liquids). Therefore, manufacturing, especially in the petrochemical sector, is ramping back up in the U.S. The authors cite a study that says for every two jobs created by the fracking industry, another one job is created in the manufacturing sector. The paper also concludes that the shale revolution saved Obama’s bacon by creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. Without shale drilling we would not have recovered as quickly as we did from the economic near-collapse of 2007/2008. Here’s a summary of the research, followed by a full copy of the published paper…
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    Société Générale Questions OPEC Oil Cut Agreement; Russia Lying?

    Two weeks ago MDN editor Jim Willis attended the “Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum 2016” held in New York City (see Harold Hamm Talks About Trump, OPEC, and Global Warming). Our previous report focused on the keynote address and Q&A with Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm. However, there was a second keynoter–for lunch–that riveted the attendees’ attention. That person was HE Abdalla Saem El-Badri, the former Secretary General of OPEC. While the audience munched away on salmon and Cornish game hen, John Kingston, director of S&P Global Market Insights sat on stage with El-Badri and peppered him with questions, mainly about the recent OPEC agreement to cut production among member states by 1.2 million barrels per day, and a follow-on agreement by non-OPEC members (like Russia) to cut another 600,000 barrels per day. At one point Kingston grilled El-Badri about those cuts, recounting that several speakers during the day had voiced the opinion that there would be perhaps 70-80% compliance with the proposed cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. El-Badri voiced his opinion that “there must by 100% compliance” with the stated cuts–otherwise the price of oil will not hit and remain at the target of $55-$65 per barrel. Kingston was, understandably, incredulous, and continued to hammer El-Badri on the point–but El-Badri did not relent from his position that all participants “must” adhere to the cuts in the plan. Kingston is not the only skeptic when it comes to the cuts. The analysts at banking giant Société Générale maintain (in so many words) that Russia, in particular, is lying and will not cut 300,000 barrels per day of production as promised. Here’s SG’s best thinking about what will happen with the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts, and their prediction that the price of oil in 2017 will not hit $55-$65, but instead stay in the $50-$60 range…
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    Backlogs in the Marcellus/Utica – COBs and DUCs

    We’ve seen signs of increased drilling in the Marcellus/Utica. Just look at the Baker Hughes rig counts month by month. Ever so gradually, the number of rigs operating in our region is creeping back up. The smart analysts at BTU Analytics have been crunching the numbers and looking at the data–and they have a theory about why new drilling is coming back, very soon, in the Marcellus/Utica. It all has to do with the backlog. You’ve heard about DUCs–drilled but uncompleted wells. But have you ever heard of COBs? That’s Completed wells on backlog. Depending on where you are located in PA, COBs have a great deal to do with where drilling will happen…
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    Cheapest Sources of Electricity? Natural Gas & Wind, Says UT Study

    Natural gas and wind are the lowest-cost technology options for new electricity generation across much of the U.S. when cost, public health impacts and environmental effects are considered. So says a new research paper released by The University of Texas at Austin. Researchers assessed multiple generation technologies including coal, natural gas, solar, wind and nuclear. Their findings, as depicted in a series of maps illustrating the cost of each generation technology on a county-by-county basis throughout the U.S., are featured in a new white paper titled “New U.S. Power Costs: by County, with Environmental Externalities” (full copy below). What’s interesting to us is who helped fund the research. Two organizations helping pay the bill were the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation and the Environmental Defense Fund. That is, those with a bias against fossil fuels. We wonder if they’ll ask for their grant money back? Here’s a summary of the research, followed by the full report…
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    Marcellus Gas Part of “Low Carbon” Research Project at Penn State

    The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection is using an unspecified amount of grant money from the U.S. Department of Energy to fund a Penn State pilot project that combines a natural gas-fired electric plant with solar cell and battery energy storage systems in a hybrid system to power several office buildings, a sewage pump station and several Penn State training center facilities. The hope is to prove developing “microgrids” like this one can lead to a “low-carbon footprint.” Hey, at least they wised up and are using Marcellus natural gas (a hated fossil fuel) as part of their “low carbon” research. Here’s the details on the latest big money project, using taxpayer dollars, under way at Penn State…
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    EIA: US Oil & NatGas Proved Reserves Take a Dip in 2015

    Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), yesterday released their annual report of proved oil and natural gas reserves in the United States for 2015. The report, titled “U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2015” (full copy embedded below) shows proved reserves for natural gas dropped by 64.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), or 16.6%. U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves also decreased–from 39.9 billion barrels to 35.2 billion barrels (down 11.8%). The drop in proved reserves for gas and oil comes after last year’s record high proved reserves (see EIA: Shale Rockets U.S. Proved O&G Reserves to New Records). Is this a big deal? What the heck are “proved” reserves, anyway? Glad you asked…
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    Job Ads for Oil & Gas Workers Up 50% Since August

    Ever use the job site called Indeed? The site aggregates job ads from everywhere it can find them from around the web–into one very useful search engine. Think of it as Google for job listings. Indeed has its own blog and employs its own economists to analyze trends. Today the site released data that shows oil and gas industry job postings have spiked up 50% since a low in August, which is a good sign that the industry is, indeed (pun intended) turning around. Here’s what the Indeed economist has to say…
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