Research

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    Mom Earth is Farting Methane Faster than Warmers Thought

    flatulenceIt seems old Mom Earth has a major case of flatulence (i.e. farting). Researchers who have been mapping the ocean floor have discovered “an active strip of seafloor called the Cascadia Subduction Zone is bubbling methane like mad” off the coast of Washington, Oregon and California. [Quick, somebody call Cornell prof Bob Howarth! There’s fugitive methane escaping!!] Big Green advocates get their knickers in a twist over fugitive methane because, ‘ya know, it causes global warming. But this time mankind is nowhere to be found as the cause. This massive methane leak off the West Coast is Mom Earth, all by herself, farting away and killing herself without even knowing it. How tragic. And how funny!…
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    EIA: Record High Amount of NatGas Now in Storage

    EIAMDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has just published a brief article denoting a milestone: the amount of natural gas in storage has reached a new, record high of 4.017 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Our country does not use as much natural gas as we produce during the months of April through October–which is the time when we store the extra gas in (mostly) underground salt caverns. From November to March, when it’s cold, we withdraw gas from storage because we’re using more than we produce. Over the past few years we have produced, and stored, far more gas than we can use–leading to a crash in natgas prices. A buildup in storage is a signal to the market that once again we have too much supply and not enough demand. Which furthermore is a signal that the recent rise in prices for natgas (over $3/Mcf) isn’t likely to last. In fact, the price of gas over the past month has gone from $3.25/Mcf to (today) $2.75/Mcf–a $0.50 drop. Storage is a big part of the reason why. Here’s what the EIA had to say…
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    EIA Nov Drilling Report: Marcellus Production Up for 2nd Month

    EIAYesterday MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. Last month was a bit of a surprise, with the Marcellus reversing the trend and producing more gas than it did the month before (see EIA October Drilling Report: Marcellus Reverses, Increases Production). This month that trend continues. Marcellus production is predicted to go up an average of 130 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d)! Utica production continues to decline, predicted to drop another 12 MMcf/d from the previous month’s estimate. Even with a big bump up in production in the Marcellus (and an increase month over month in the Permian), it’s still not enough to reverse the trend that overall, production from all of the shale plays cumulatively will go down in the coming month–a drop of 94 MMcf/d. Drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) went down for the Marcellus by 7, meaning there are 7 fewer wells to complete (inventory dwindling). The Utica added 1 DUC well to its inventory…
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    New Research Helps Locate Abandoned O&G Wells in PA

    pnasIn March we highlighted the issue of abandoned oil and natural gas wells in Pennsylvania (see Who Pays for Abandoned O&G Wells in PA?). PA state officials estimate there are as many as 200,000 abandoned oil and gas wells in the state–the vast majority of them conventional wells drilled over 50 years ago. Most of them are not mapped or known. Some of them are hazards for shale drillers who stumble across them when drilling new wells. If you drill horizontally and clip an old/abandoned well, it becomes like an elevator pumping fluids and gas to the surface. Not good. Everyone is committed to finding and marking and capping these old wells–the question is, how do you pay for it? The shale industry says it’s not fair to put the economic burden solely on the shoulders of the Marcellus industry. A new study just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) by researchers at Stanford and Princeton says the number of abandoned PA wells is actually much higher–as many as 700,000! The paper is titled “Identification and characterization of high methane-emitting abandoned oil and gas wells” (full copy below). The researchers are motivated by global warming flummery–desiring to locate abandoned wells which emit varying amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Whatever. The useful thing about this research is that they have discovered a way of sniffing out abandoned wells and determining which ones are emitting the highest levels of methane. Our interest is in the ability to locate, map and avoid drilling through old wells–we welcome this research…
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    Baker Hughes Oct US Rig Count Up by 35, M-U Count Up 4

    Baker Hughes logoWhile the worldwide Baker Hughes rig count slide back a bit in October, from 934 in September to 920 in October, the rig count in the U.S. once again, for the fourth month in a row, went up. The average U.S. rig count for October was 544, up 35 from the 509 counted in September. However, the rig count was down 247 from the 791 counted in October 2015–so we still have a long ways to go. The Marcellus/Utica rig count was up for the third month running. In October the M/U rig count went up by 4 with 3 additions in PA (now 25 rigs) and 1 in WV (now 10 rigs). OH stayed even running with an average of 14 rigs…
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    IHS Markit Says October Saw Historic Drop in US NatGas Production

    ihs-markitIHS Markit, an information and analytics company that keeps a close eye on the energy industry, says its analysis shows natural gas production in the U.S. went down “nearly 2%” in October from September. It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a big deal. Production levels in South Texas and the Northeast, according to VP Jack Weixel, “fell off a combined 1.3 Bcf/d from September to October.” That is the largest regional month over month decline IHS Markit has seen since it began tracking these numbers. What does it mean? Typically it means higher prices are coming–less supply, the same or increasing demand equals higher prices (classic economics 101 stuff). However, there are so many complex and contributing factors, it’s not as simple as less supply = higher prices. Not anymore! Here’s what IHS Markit is saying…
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    Report: What if Fracking was Banned, as Hillary Wants?

    Chamber of CommerceThe U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently launched a “What If…?” series to counter the radical “keep it in the ground” movement–a movement that irrationally hates the use of fossil fuels. In August the Chamber released their first such report, titled “What If…Energy Production was Banned on Federal Lands and Waters?” (see Chamber Report Details Why ‘Keep it in the Ground’ a Disaster). In Sept. they released their second report (see Report: What If America’s Energy Renaissance Never Happened?). In Oct. they released the third report (see Report: What If the U.S. was Forced to Pay EU Energy Prices?). Last Friday the Chamber released the fourth report in the series, very timely considering the election tomorrow. The newest in the series is titled, “What If…Hydraulic Fracturing Was Banned?” (full copy below). Under a Hillary Clinton presidency, that’s a very real possibility. Clinton said during the Democratic debates not many months ago: “By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place” (see A President Hillary Clinton Would Ban Most Fracking). Either she didn’t really mean what she said and she lied, or she did mean it. We tend to think it’s the later. So what would happen if fracking were essentially banned nationwide? According to research by the Chamber, by 2022 the country would lose 15 million jobs now created by fracking (in addition to the 94 million workers without jobs now), and everyone would pay twice (or more) than they do now for electric & gasoline. Not a pretty picture…
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    EIA: Horizontal Fracked Wells Superior Performers

    EIAWe laugh every time we read about peak oil and peak natural gas theorists, and mainstream “reporters” from places like the New York Times trumpeting that any day now natural gas is going to peter out. It’s just a flash in the pan. “Everybody” knows that shale wells are weak, pathetic performers than run out of juice almost as fast as their drilled. We’ve read stories about how shale drilling is a ponzi scheme. We’ve read stories that very soon we’ll run out of new places to drill, and then it’s all over. Except…except it’s all not true. None other than the U.S. Energy Information Administration has just posted a brief article that details, using real research, that horizontally drilled shale wells are MORE productive over the long-term than conventional wells. That is, they are more productive for longer than a conventional well. But that won’t stop the peakers and ponzi schemers from pedaling their pap…
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    EIA Natural Gas Oct 2016 Monthly Report

    EIAThis past Monday, Oct. 31, our favorite government agency (the U.S. Energy Information Administration) issued their Natural Gas Monthly report. The report covers data received up through August 2016. Even though the data is a couple of months old, it is instructive (and interesting). EIA says the month report, “highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer?related activities and underground storage data are also reported.” We found the report interesting as we scanned through it and thought you would too…
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    Evercore ISI Predicts O&G Capital Spending Up 25% in 2017

    trending-upAs we near the end of this year, analysts and consultants inevitably turn their attention to next year, 2017. Will oil and gas drillers spend more money next year on their drilling programs? The consensus appears to be a resounding “Yes!” The question is, how much more? Anyone’s guess. But analysts like to guess. One those analyst firms is Evercore ISI, an investment banking advisory firm founded in 1995. Evercore’s smarties are predicting drillers will spend 25% more next year than they did this year on drilling–with a total collective spend across the industry of ~$110 billion. Here’s their thinking…
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    List of 218 O&G Companies Declaring Bankruptcy Since 2015

    Bankruptcy

    In November 2015 MDN brought you a list of 36 North America drillers that had, as of that time, declared bankruptcy (see List of 36 Oil & Gas Companies that Filed for Bankruptcy in 2015). In April, just three short months ago, the list stood at 59 bankruptcies (see List of 59 Oil & Gas Companies Filing for Bankruptcy in 2015/2016). The law firm compiling the list, Haynes and Boone, continued updating the list. In June it showed the list growing to 85 declared bankruptcies (see List of 85 Bankrupt O&G Companies Since 2015; 4 in Marc/Utica). The list was updated again just last week, and it now stands at 105 bankruptcies for E&Ps (drillers). We have the new list below. However, that single list doesn’t really tell the whole story. Until now we not noticed or highlighted two other lists also published by Haynes and Boone: a list of bankruptcies for midstream (pipeline) companies, and a list of bankruptcies for oilfield services companies. When you total all three lists, it shows 218 companies in the o&g industry that have, since the beginning of 2015, declared bankruptcy. We have all three lists below…
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    Best Employment Opportunities in O&G Right Now: Frac Crew

    drilling-equals-jobs.jpgMDN editor Jim Willis recently had the pleasure of addressing the Petroleum Club at the University of Pittsburgh’s Bradford, PA campus. Not in person, but via Skype video. When Jim asked the group, most of them in their second year of a two-year petroleum technology program about future job prospects, he got the impression they are concerned. The Marcellus industry has not been immune to layoffs. Graduating with a degree in an industry that’s seen 300,000+ layoffs over the past two years might make some question the wisdom of entering the program in the first place. Jim’s message to these eager young people bursting with potential? Don’t give up–and be encouraged. At the recent Shale Insight event and Benposium East event (both held in September), Jim had a number of conversations with those who either work in or invest in the o&g industry. His conclusion after speaking with industry insiders? Things are beginning to turn around. In fact, we can’t count the number of stories that talk about the coming shortage of good workers in the o&g industry. Today we spotted a press release from Energent Group promoting new research and wanted to highlight some of the information in that release–information that may be helpful to our new young friends at Pitt-Bradford, and for others in the industry looking for work. The research highlights the fact there are many drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), in all shale plays–but particularly in the oily Permian and Eagle Ford shale plays. According to the Energent research, workers probably stand the best chance of getting a job with a frac crew–because companies will first work on completing the already-drilled wells by fracking them. Makes sense to us!…
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    Black & Veatch NatGas Industry Report: Optimism Reigns; Should It?

    optimismBlack & Veatch, a global engineering, consulting, construction, and operations company that is a major player in the oil and gas market, has just-released a new report: 2016 Strategic Directions: Natural Gas Industry Report (see a copy below). The new report tackles market outlooks for the upstream, midstream and downstream segments. One of the sections that caught our eye: power market opportunities, which explores how coal plant retirements and lower operating dispatch costs have moved natural gas to its place as the primary energy source in the United States. Also in the report, the attitudes of those working in the industry is optimistic. But the report authors issue a note of caution: “Yet, this optimism may be masking some substantial warning signs, particularly for upstream and midstream players. Tight controls on capital investments, tied to the low margins inherent in today’s pricing environment, have constrained new projects. Lower crude oil prices have revitalized petrochemical projects in the downstream sector, particularly in international markets, but investors still question long-term viability. This raises a key question for how organizations are, or are not, positioned to take advantage of an eventual pricing correction.” In other words, drillers and pipeline companies shouldn’t be popping the cork on the champagne bottle just yet. Here’s the fifth annual natgas update from B&V…
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    Report: What If the U.S. was Forced to Pay EU Energy Prices?

    Chamber of CommerceThe U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently launched a “What If…?” series to counter the radical “keep it in the ground” movement–a movement that irrationally hates the use of fossil fuels. In August the Chamber released their first such report, titled “What If…Energy Production was Banned on Federal Lands and Waters?” (see Chamber Report Details Why ‘Keep it in the Ground’ a Disaster). In Sept. they released their second report, What If…America’s Energy Renaissance Never Happened? (see Report: What If America’s Energy Renaissance Never Happened?). The Chamber is back with an important new third report that asks and answers the important question: What Would Happen if the U.S. Was Forced to Pay Europe’s prices for Energy? Hint: It ain’t pretty…
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    Duke U Researcher Tries to Repair Reputation with Wastewater Study

    Duke logoFor years now the radical Park Park Foundation has been buying its research from a few select professors at a few select universities. One of the scientists for sale is Avner Vengosh, professor of geochemistry and water quality at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment (see Duke Hit Piece on Shale Water Usage from Same Park-Sponsored Prof and Latest Case of Duke U Bought & Paid “Research” by Park Foundation). Here’s how it works: Park funds Dr. Vengosh’s “research,” and he conveniently “discovers” all sorts of nasty things about shale fracking, publishing his “research” in obscure, peer reviewed journals. Mainstream media picks it up and runs it. Readers who only scan headlines get the impression fracking is evil. Mission accomplished for Park (another hit on fracking) and for Vengosh (another buck in his pocket). That’s how it works in the world of bought-and-paid-for fractivism. But when the Park Foundation doesn’t pay the bill for the research, Vengosh turns in research that doesn’t slam fracking. Case in point: Vengosh has just published yet another study, this time in the journal Science of The Total Environment, funded by the National Science Foundation. Vengosh’s new research finds there’s really nothing to worry about after all when it comes to Marcellus Shale wastewater. He goes so far as to say with proper treatment, shale wastewater “potentially could have beneficial reuses.” Imagine that? From the same guy who previously bashed fracking as one of the world’s evil activities…
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    Carnegie Mellon Study: Radon in Marcellus Gas Doesn’t Kill People

    real-science.jpgAnti-fossil fuel zealots have long attempted to scare the masses with false claims about fracked shale gas in the Marcellus. Early on radical environmental organizations tried to scare people in New York City, telling them they’ll get lung cancer from radon in Marcellus gas if they use it (see The Latest Anti-Drilling Scare Tactic: Radon in Shale Gas). One of the early “scientists” who pimped himself out to Big Green, Dr. Marvin Resnikoff, made wild claims about radon levels in Marcellus gas. Resnikoff also made accusations that the U.S. Geological Survey was in the back pocket of Big Oil on this issue. The USGS responded with a major slapdown of Resnikoff (see Radon Debate: USGS Responds to Marvin Resnikoff Accusation). Finally, someone has done some real research to put this issue to rest. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have just published a paper titled, “Lung Cancer Risk from Radon in Marcellus Shale Gas in Northeast U.S. Homes” (draft copy below). The Carnegie research says “there is no support” to back up the wild claims that radon in Marcellus gas increases cancer risks. Period. In particular, they take aim at Dr. Resnikoff’s claims and say he “provided insufficient documentation of the methodology used” and “[a]t this time there is no support for the high mortality argument offered by Resnikoff.” Total repudiation of his earlier claims. For once and for all: whatever “extra” radon there may be in Marcellus (i.e. fracked) shale gas, it’s not in sufficient quantities that by standing near a burning stove all day long every day will it add to your risk of contracting lung cancer…
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