Shell Launches LNG Outlook 2017 – Rapid Growth Ahead
On Monday, Shell launched its first-ever “LNG Outlook,” an assessment of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. Shell, you may recall, purchased BG in 2016 (announced in 2015), the largest such deal (at $69.7 billion) since Exxon bought Mobil and merged it in. The reason for the purchase? LNG (see LNG Love Story: Shell Makes Play to Buy BG in $69.7B Megamerger). According to the outlook released by Shell yesterday, global demand for unliquefied natural gas is expected to increase by 2% a year between 2015 and 2030, while LNG demand will rise at twice that rate–4 to 5% per year. The outlook says that while many expected a big increase in new LNG supplies that would outpace demand in 2016, something unexpected happened. Demand for LNG kept pace with supply due to a spike in demand coming from Asia and the Middle East. Two of the fastest growing buyers are China and India, growing their imports at a steep clip. Add to that, six new countries began importing LNG last year: Colombia, Egypt, Jamaica, Jordan, Pakistan and Poland. What it all spells is that even with more LNG supplies coming online in the U.S. (and other countries, like Australia), the demand is there to sop up the supply. Here’s the Shell LNG Outlook, first edition…
Read More “Shell Launches LNG Outlook 2017 – Rapid Growth Ahead”
Yesterday MDN’s favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issued our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR is the EIA’s best guess, based on expert data crunchers, as to how much each of the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce for both oil and natural gas in the coming month. For the past four reports, estimating production for November, December, January, and February, Marcellus natgas has increased. The trend continues in this latest report, which forecasts production for the coming month of March. In fact, EIA says natgas production for six of the seven major shale plays will go up–by a lot. In fact, if the numbers prove to be true, the combined natural gas production for the seven major plays will hit a new record high of 49.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March. Two months ago the EIA predicted natgas production in the Marcellus would zoom up by 160 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). Last month EIA predicted Marcellus production would go up another huge 188 MMcf/d. This month, it’s even higher: March production will go up 192 MMcf/d! The other big story (for us) is just how much natgas production is rising in the Texas Permian Basin–up another 129 MMcf/d. But wait, the Permian is an oil play, right? Correct. However, more than just oil comes out of the ground–plenty of “associated” natural gas also comes out, along with the oil. The Permian is seeing white hot levels of new drilling. The more oil drilling, the more associated natural gas that comes along with it. Below we have the latest report, long with some analysis…
Some farms not only produce products like milk, meat, eggs and/or crops–some farms produce energy. Would it surprise you to learn that in 2014 (the most recent year with stats available), energy companies paid farmers a staggering $2.9 billion for the energy extracted from private farms? The U.S. Dept. of Agriculture posted a brief blurb from their Amber Waves magazine yesterday, recounting stats from a report released last November. The report, “Trends in U.S. Agriculture’s Consumption and Production of Energy: Renewable Power, Shale Energy, and Cellulosic Biomass” (full copy below) points out it’s not just oil and gas extraction that farmers receive income from. Some farmers lease their land for solar and wind generation. Some biomass. However, it was one particular chart and stat that caught our attention: About 9.6% of Pennsylvania farms received energy income in 2014. The average amount received, per farm? $157,000! Almost all of that revenue came from the Marcellus Shale…
West Virginia University (WVU) has joined a national effort to “turn natural gas into valuable products and do it at the well.” There are many locations in the Marcellus (and Utica) where pipelines don’t yet connect. Wells drilled but not hooked up to production. WVU has joined the newest branch of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Network of Manufacturing Institutes. Called Rapid Advancement in Process Intensification Deployment institute, or RAPID, the institute “will focus on using advanced manufacturing to develop breakthrough technologies to boost the productivity and efficiency of some of industrial processes by 20 percent in the next five years.” That is, they plan to design modular reactors–think of them as teeny tiny crackers–that can be carted around well site to well site, converting methane, ethane and other hydrocarbons into new chemical products. It’s a very exciting concept. WV in particular has a lot of hilly terrain that makes installing pipelines difficult. This is a potential solution to that problem…
For those of us in a certain generation, you will recognize this: Fred, Daphne, Shaggy, Velma…and of course, Scooby-Doo! If you were raised watching cartoons on Saturday morning, and you watched Scooby-Doo, do you remember the name of the van they traveled around in? That’s right, the Mystery Machine! An image of the Mystery Machine is what floated through our brain as we read about the latest venture in researching air quality in Pennsylvania near drilling sites. Researchers from Drexel University (in Philadelphia) set out across Marcellus territory in “Drexel’s Mobile Laboratory, a Ford cargo van equipped with all the equipment necessary for measuring concentrations of chemicals and particles in the air at 1-10 second intervals while driving.” The Mystery Machine! And what, pray tell, did our intrepid Marcellus sleuths find be-bopping around the countryside? In the recently published study, “Analysis of local-scale background concentrations of methane and other gas-phase species in the Marcellus Shale” (full copy below), researchers say they found that even though the number of Marcellus wells being drilled has slowed quite a bit over the past few years, the amount of fugitive methane in the air has increased. And the increase can’t be explained by a general global increase in fugitive methane. The increase in fugitive methane in the Marcellus is due, our methane sleuths say, to the “increased production of natural gas from the region which has increased significantly over the 2012 to 2015 period.” The researchers conclude that “because everybody knows how evil and nasty fugitive methane is for global warming” (our words), this study is yet more evidence that Marcellus shale drilling (and pipelines, etc.) leak so much methane as to make any benefits we get from extracting and burning methane, over say coal, muted–even lost. Because we can’t put a cork in it, by extracting and using methane we’re making poor old Mom Earth even sicker. Which is, of course, total bunkum…
Major multinational bank Société Générale, headquartered in Paris but with major operations here in the U.S., has just issued a 37-page report on U.S. commodities. The theme of the report caught our attention: “Five facts about shale: it’s coming back, and coming back strong.” Analysts working for Société Générale asked themselves this question: Will the U.S. recovery in oil and gas production offset OPEC cuts? They review some of the key dynamics of U.S. shale production in their report. Specifically, they highlight five facts about U.S. shale production that all point to the same underlying trend: shale is coming back in a big way…
The Baker Hughes rig count continued its rocket ride in January. The international rig count (worldwide) was 933, up 4 from the 929 counted in December. However, in the U.S., the January rig count was 683, up a huge 49 rigs from the 634 in December. The Marcellus/Utica displayed equally good news. The combined rig counts for PA-OH-WV was 61, up by 3 rigs from December’s 58. Both PA and OH gained 2 rigs while WV lost 1 rig in January. Here’s the full set of numbers (and a pretty chart)…
A bright and enterprising graduate student at Penn State University cooked up an interesting research project for her graduate thesis. With all this talk about “fracked gas” having boatloads of radon in it, would using such radon-laden gas as the source fuel for a gas-fired electric plant pose a risk to those who live near it? In particular, could the gas-fired plants on Penn State’s own campus be posing a danger to students, faculty and staff that live and work on campus? Alison Stidworthy, a former graduate student in the Department of Meteorology at Penn State (and now employed as a site manager for the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection), led the research effort, which was the topic of her master’s degree thesis (copy below). What did Alison find? High levels of radon do not leak from the plants and pose no health issues to those living and working nearby. Which makes perfect sense. How do you get rid of radon in your basement when it’s present? You vent it to the outside, where it quickly dissipates and becomes inert. Alison, along with several of her professors, recently published her work as a study in the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association...
We’ve caught a fair bit of criticism (kind, but firm criticism) from MDN subscribers about our views that global warming (a) doesn’t exist, and (b) if it does exist to any small degree, it’s certainly not something being caused by mankind and not something we can influence, even if we tried. Believing such things marks us as being radical, fringe, kooks, for many. Perhaps you’ll now reconsider. You might think if someone inside the epicenter of global warming science–the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were to announce to the world he has evidence that other scientists at the agency had faked data to support the theory of man-made global warming, it would be the lead article in every newspaper and the lead story on every newscast. Such a thing has just happened–a whistle-blower has stepped forward. Unfortunately our country is plagued with fake/manufactured news–CNN, The New York Times, Washington Post, ABC/NBC/CBS, etc. Not a single so-called mainstream news source has or will run the story that Dr. John Bates, the recently retired principal scientist at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, has admitted that others in the agency rushed the numbers and published unverified data in what is known as the Karl study, which was used “to discredit the notion of a global warming hiatus and rush to time the publication of the paper to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy.” The Karl study was released to influence world leaders ahead of the Paris Climate Agreement last year. Once again, scientists with a left-leaning political agenda have been caught, red-handed, faking the numbers–and our media is SILENT…
We caught sight of an interesting new study just published in the journal BMC Microbiology by researchers at the University of Arkansas/Fayetteville. Researchers studied (did in the field studies) of streams both near and far from fracking activities in the Arkansas Fayetteville Shale. No, the research is not directly about the Marcellus/Utica, although our shale plays are mentioned several times in the study. However, the research and its results apply to our region as well as all shale plays. In the study just published titled, “Do biofilm communities respond to the chemical signatures of fracking? A test involving streams in North-central Arkansas” (full copy below), researchers looked to see if the chemistry of streams was altered by nearby fracking activity. They evaluated “benthic biofilm community composition as a proxy for stream chemistry” to see if bacteria and other tiny critters that show up under a microscope display differences between the streams near fracking, and those not near fracking activity. What did they find? No difference. No change. No impacts from fracking on streams and the microbiology of those streams. What they did find is that streams are affected by agriculture and urbanization…
Last year MDN told you about researchers in Argentina strapping methane backpacks on cows and hooking up hoses to their digestive tracts (reminding us of the Borg in Star Trek) in order to capture global warming methane emissions from bovines (see 
World Oil calls itself “the premier trade publication for the international upstream industry.” Perhaps it is–who are we to say otherwise? The folks at World Oil have done us all a favor. They surveyed the upstream (i.e. drilling) oil and gas industry to find out what drillers are planning for 2017. Overall, they find drillers plan to drill 18,552 wells in North America this year–a big 26.8% jump from last year. In releasing a summary of the results, Wold Oil outlines region by region in the U.S. what they predict will happen this year, based on survey results. The northeast section caught our eye. World Oil predicts Pennsylvania will see a 29% increase in new well drilling this year (total of 774 new wells drilled). Ohio will see an increase of 19.1% in new well drilling (380 new wells). And West Virginia will see a big 21.9% increase (245 new wells). Here’s the full summary from World Oil…
As MDN has covered (shouted) for several years now: natural gas-fired electric plants are a really big deal. The conversion from using coal (and some other forms) to natgas to generate electricity is happening at an increasing rate. And those electric generating plants use A LOT of natgas–meaning new markets for drillers. Just yesterday we gave you a list of 409 such projects across the Fruited Plain (see 
The nutjobs at the Sierra Club have done us the favor in identifying their next targets: 409 natural gas-fired electric plants and 83 pipeline projects either under construction or planned. We have both full lists below. (Handy lists for those who want to sell something to the builders of those projects!) Global warming nuttery has metastasized into full-blown insanity at the Sierra Club. Even though natural gas produces far less carbon and harmful emissions than other fossil fuels, the Sierra Club is focusing all of their money, time and resources to defeating anything to do with fossil fuels. If they got their way, they would stop an additional 31 gigawatts of electricity from coming online from gas-fired plants (many of them in the Marcellus/Utica region). They would also stop many M-U pipeline projects. Essentially, they want to force all of us back into the Stone Ages–without the benefit of plastics or the use of fossil fuels. Yes, it IS insanity. Below are not only the two lists (gas power plants projects and pipeline projects), but also a copy of the Sierra Club’s latest foray into Joseph Goebbels propaganda–a report called “The Gas Rush: Locking America into Another Fossil Fuel for Decades.” Real bizzaro stuff…
Pennsylvania hired research firm IHSMarkit to study the Marcellus and Utica and how many ethane cracker plants the region can comfortably support. Denise Brinley, a special assistant to the Secretary of the state Department of Community and Economic Development, offered a preview of that report at this week’s Hart Energy Marcellus Utica Midstream conference in Pittsburgh. Although the report is due to be published “in the next few weeks,” Brinley spilled the beans on what it concludes: The PA Marcellus can support another two cracker plants, and the Utica can support two crackers. That’s another four cracker plants, theoretically, that our region can support, in addition to Shell’s ethane cracker. However, the study will also show we need more infrastructure (i.e. pipelines) in order to support such projects. Here’s a glimpse into some very exciting news…