NGSA: Colder Winter + Lower Production = Higher NatGas Prices
Last winter was pretty unusual by everyone’s standards. It was much warmer and less snowy than normal in the northeast, and natural gas production/levels remained high over the course of the winter. It meant that the price of natural gas stayed in the basement during the time of year when it normally at least makes it to the first floor. What about this year? MDN recently reported that it’s going to be colder and snowier than average in the northeast this year (see AccuWeather Winter Forecast: “Frequent Snow” Will Blast Northeast). The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) issued its 16th annual Winter Outlook assessment of the wholesale natural gas market yesterday (full copy below). What do they say? NGSA affirms the AccuWeather forecast saying they expect temps to be 12% colder this winter–increasing demand for natural gas and thus putting “upward pressure” on the price of natural gas…
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Duke University, as MDN has chronicled, has a long history of pumping out faux research that bashes fracking and fossil fuels, “research” that’s bought-and-paid-for by the Park Foundation, one of Duke’s major contributors (see 
Last Friday the U.S. Energy Information Administration, our favorite government agency, released its Natural Gas Annual 2015 report. Weighing in at 212 pages (yikes!), this report is full of data. It is a datamonger’s dream come true. Right off the bat the report shows record U.S. natural gas production levels for the fifth consecutive year, and record consumption levels for the sixth consecutive year. Natgas is growing in the U.S. and it’s growing big-time. Another interesting factoid from the report: For the first time since 2007 natural gas imports *increased* year over year. That’s interesting! The report has a number of fascinating charts and graphs. We list a few of them below, along with a full copy of the report…
In 2014 David Hughes from the so-called Post Carbon Institute made one of the stupidest remarks he’s ever made when he said, “I think the Marcellus is getting pretty close to the peak in [total] production…I wouldn’t be surprised to see a peak in the Marcellus this year, maybe next year at the latest.” Dumb. Marcellus (and Utica) production has done nothing but go up since that time. Oh, the last few months the EIA has reported that Marcellus production is declining–a little bit. But that’s because of a lack of new drilling due to low low prices, a situation that is right now turning around. You can expect Marcellus production to pick up again very soon. The fact is, there is decades (perhaps centuries) of Marcellus/Utica Shale gas supplies waiting to be tapped–with no let-up in sight. Forbes contributor Jude Clemente, one of our favorite Forbes writers, goes on a riff to talk about the huge amount of gas available in the northeast, and its key role in U.S. production…
Weather is a major driver in the natural gas markets and primary cause for ups and downs in the price of natural gas. The hotter or colder it is, the more natgas is used for cooling (in the summer) or heating (in the winter). Some of the best weather forecasters in the business can be found making predictions for the energy markets–specifically in the natgas market. One of the country’s top weather outfits is AccuWeather. The forecasters at AccuWeather have just released their long-range forecast for the winter months in the U.S. Their forecast shows much colder and snowier conditions in the northeast than we experienced last year. If their prediction comes true, it means gas prices in our region may move higher (watch out pipeline deficient New England, your gas AND electric rates will skyrocket again), and it means drillers will face challenges with drilling through the winter months. Here’s what AccuWeather says (and shows, via maps) about the coming 3-4 months across the country…
What if a couple of really smart analysts who work next to each other, guys who challenge each other every day, analysts who study and focus on natural gas production, were to pull the curtain back and reveal to the world what kinds of discussion and repartee they engage in? In particular, disclose their discussions and debate about the Marcellus/Utica? For those of us who eat/sleep/breath shale energy in the northeast, that would be wicked cool. And that’s just what MDN editor Jim Willis was treated to at S&P Global Platts’ Benposium East event in New York this past Wednesday. Luke Jackson, senior energy analyst with Platts Analytics, and Jeff Moore, also a senior energy analyst with Platts Analytics (the Bentek Products division) both live and work in Denver, CO. Their session at Benposium was titled, “Opposing Views–Northeast Production: Boom or Bust?” The two decided it would spice up what is normally a pretty dry conference presentation by standing on the stage and conducting a classic Oxford-style debate, where a motion is offered and one person argues “for” the motion, the other “against.” The motion they put forward was this: “Will Northeast production remain the sole engine of US natural gas production growth in the next 1-3 years, offsetting declines from the rest of the US and allowing overall US production to push higher?” In other words, can the Marcellus/Utica keep expanding production fast enough that it offsets declining production in other plays, or will those other plays need to increase their output too–to meet growing US demand? Luke argued for the motion and Jeff against. What was the conclusion? Keep reading! The boys used a dynamite PowerPoint slide deck. We asked for and got a copy of it and share it with you below. You need to take time to review the slides–they are awesome! Loaded with details. Below we also have some of our notes–quips and tidbits of information that caught our attention as the boys debated…
2 Corinthians 6:15: “What harmony can there be between Christ and the devil? How can a believer be a partner with an unbeliever?” The obvious answer to the Apostle Paul’s hypothetical question in that passage is, “There is no harmony. A believer can’t partner with an unbeliever.” Yet that’s just what is happening among the ranks of anti-fossil fuel fools. We’ll explain. On Monday the usual suspects, namely the misnamed and odious Food & Water Watch and 200 or so of their closest “friends”–including the Sierra Clubbers, Natural Resources Defense Council, et al ad naseum (people who never think for themselves)–sent a letter (full copy below) to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy asking her, begging with her, pleading with her, to pretty-please change the results of the EPA’s own scientific study, performed by dozens (hundreds?) of scientists who analyzed 950 studies on fracking, conducting nine of their own primary studies, and concluding that fracking doesn’t contaminate ground water supplies (see 
The benefits of shale energy are almost too numerous to list. Contrary to the ninny nannies who spit and spout and preen about yelling the sky is falling if we frack one more well–the OPPOSITE is the truth. Shale is GREAT for America, in so many ways. Channeling our inner Donald Trump, “It’s very very great. So great you won’t believe how great it is. You’re gonna love it!” Here’s just one more way shale is great. A researcher from Clemson University (in South Carolina) poured over mortgage data for the state of Pennsylvania. As you know, not all of PA is blessed with being located in the Marcellus Shale–but much of it is. The intrepid Clemson researcher found in reviewing records from 2004 to 2011 that those with mortgages who live in areas where there is Marcellus Shale defaulted on those mortgages 58% LESS than the statewide average. That is, shale means there’s more money to pay bills, a mortgage being one of them. Might we say that the Marcellus can literally save the family farm? Yes, we can say it, and back it up with data! The Clemson researcher also found living in a shale region boosts your FICO credit score…
Each year the consultants at Deloitte conduct a survey of oil and gas industry professionals. What does this year’s 2016 survey find? The survey, titled “2016 Oil and Gas Industry Survey” (full copy below) finds that 24% of industry executives believe the recovery has already begun, while 33% believe it will begin in early 2017, for a combined 57% who say we’ve either already turned the corner, or soon will. The long, dark night appears to be over and we’re just now seeing the crack of dawn again. Here is what the people who eat, sleep and drink oil and gas say about our cherished industry…
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently launched a “What If…?” series to counter the radical “keep it in the ground” movement–a movement that irrationally hates the use of fossil fuels. In August the Chamber released their first such report, titled “What If…Energy Production was Banned on Federal Lands and Waters?” (see 
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a European run and influence group of 29 countries that fervently believe the sky is falling, and that Mom Earth is toasting. Yep, global warmists. According to the IEA, the group is “an autonomous organisation which works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA has four main areas of focus: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness and engagement worldwide.” Er, ah, right. That makes it plain as day. Anyhow, the socialist IEA has no problem charging a king’s ransom for the reports they periodically issue. Last November the IEA issued their annual World Energy Outlook, predicting the world will see $80/barrel oil by 2020 (see 
Gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants often convert natural gas into methanol. Methanol is one of the most commonly used substances in the chemical industry–used to produce antifreeze, fuels, solvents and many types of plastics. Converting methane (or natural gas) into methanol has been around for a while–but converting it at room temperature, using far less energy, is new. Scientists at KU Leuven and Stanford University have figured out how to do it. And it’s a really big deal…
The Ohio Business Roundtable (BRT) is a partnership of the CEOs of leading Ohio companies that collectively account for more than $1 trillion in annual revenues, $1 trillion in market value and $2.6 trillion in assets. BRT’s members employ 2.6 million men and women, invest hundreds of millions of dollars annually in combined charitable contributions and research and development, and generate billions of dollars in sales for small and medium-sized businesses that are part of the supply chain. When the BRT in Ohio talks, people had better listen. Here’s the latest in what the BRT has to say: The state (i.e. Gov. Kasich) needs “a comprehensive reworking of the state’s energy policies in order to accelerate shale gas development.” No more tiptoeing around. Build those pipelines and build them NOW. That’s the upshot of a new report from the BRT titled, “Improving Ohio Energy Competitiveness” (full copy below). The report is backed up by detailed research from powerhouse consulting company McKinsey and Co. (their research is also embedded below). The BRT’s report points out the importance of the state’s natural gas-fired electric generating plants and says without more pipelines, new power plants won’t get built. The two issues are joined at the hip–vitally important for Ohio’s shale drillers, midstream companies, electric generators and yes Ohio’s electric ratepayers as well. LISTEN UP: Here’s what the BRT had to say…
Last week MDN reported researchers from Ohio State University had discovered a new form of microorganism in fracked Utica Shale wells–something they call “Frackibacter” (we call it Frackenstein). As researchers continue to pour over the research, they’ve hit upon a stunning new revelation. Those little critters may actually INCREASE natural gas output from the well. Now that is exciting news! OSU is on the case, promising to further examine Frackibacter’s origin and “more of its applications”…