The Magical Thinking of Peak Oil/Gas Theorists
You know what magical thinking is? It’s when an analyst/consultant repeatedly predicted that the world had reached “peak oil” production and that oil production was/will soon decline, leading to insanely high prices for oil. Then the shale revolution happened. Oops. So much for the discredited “peak oil” theory. But the same analyst, for a long time, kept repeating his discredited theory. We call that magical thinking. That same analyst then predicted “peak natural gas”–that the shale revolution was a bubble and would soon end because shale wells peter out so quickly, dontcha know. The analyst never factored new technology, and new shale layers, would be discovered. Oops. More magical thinking. Now that same analyst says cheap shale gas will end soon–the price is about to go insanely high. Yet more magical thinking…
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The “best of the rest” – stories that caught MDN’s eye that you may be interested in reading. In today’s lineup: NED really is dead – KM pulls the plug; 2016 northeast natgas trends; hypocrisy of OH fractivists calling for another public hearing; the Hulk goes after Tom Wolf; KM’s canceled pipeline is bad news for Vermont economy; the madness of fighting global warming; and more!
In the end, it was John Quigley’s own hubris that resulted in his demise as Secretary of the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection. As we reported yesterday, last Friday Sec. Quigley suddenly resigned his position (see 
The United States remained the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2015, according to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. petroleum and natural gas production first surpassed Russia in 2012. The U.S. has been the world’s top producer of natural gas since 2011 and the world’s top producer of petroleum hydrocarbons since 2013. We’re not only the Saudi Arabia of natural gas, we’re the Saudi Arabia of oil too! We love gloating about the fact that we’re #1 in the world! Energy = freedom. Fossil fuels = energy. Therefore, fossil fuels = freedom. If there’s a single word that still (for now) describes the good old U.S. of A.–it’s freedom. Tell the anti-American, anti-drillers to put that in their bongs and smoke it! Here’s the great news from EIA that we’re still the one…
Forget about a cracker plant in West Virginia. Well, not really–just put it on the back burner for the moment. A researcher from West Virginia University says what the Mountain State and indeed all of Appalachia really needs is ethane storage. Specifically, an ethane storage hub. According to Brian Anderson, director of West Virginia University’s Energy Institute, without ethane storage (and pipelines) the Marcellus/Utica region risks seeing its abundant ethane leave the area, mostly heading to the Gulf Coast. Why is that bad? Because if we can keep ethane in the area, we will attract manufacturers to the region who want to use the results of that ethane–ethylene, the raw material in plastics. Our region can realize a bonanza in manufacturing jobs and investments–if we can store and use the ethane here, at home…


We love it when we spot a company adopting a contrarian strategy. Received wisdom and prevailing thought says that the oil and gas industry–especially in the Marcellus/Utica–is contracting. Drillers aren’t drilling, and that affects the supply chain (those companies supplying goods and services to the industry) in a big and negative way. Yep–true enough. But the received wisdom also says companies should diversity–look for business outside of the oil and gas industry. What’s contrary is to take advantage of this downturn to expand capacity–to get ready for when the downturn turns again into an upturn. That’s just what Watco Transportation Services is doing with their Kanawha River Railroad short line subsidiary. Kanawha River Railroad has just cut a deal to lease 309 miles of rail lines from Norfolk Southern in Ohio and West Virginia. One of the customers on these short haul lines will be, yep, Marcellus and Utica drillers and sand suppliers and chemical suppliers and equipment suppliers. Nope, there’s not all that much shipping right now, which makes this a step of faith. But the company believes that the future will be here soon and things will turn and the Kanawha River Railroad will be ready to take full advantage of it. We love a railroad story, and we love a contrarian story. This is both…
In the past 12 months, some 27% of all E&Ps (exploration and production companies, what we call “drillers”) have defaulted on some of their bonds–the debt they owe. That’s huge. According to Fitch Ratings, before we turn the corner, they expect that number to grow to 30-35% of E&Ps. Defaulting on bonds doesn’t necessarily mean a company has filed for bankruptcy, but a plethora of bankruptcies have, according to Fitch, driven the bond default number way up. Here’s the latest on bond defaults and the sentiment that “it’s going to get worse before it gets better” from Fitch…
In June 2015 then-Secretary of the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), John Quigley, slapped Range Resources with an $8.9 million fine–the largest such fine ever levied by the DEP (see 