Tariff Silver Lining: Midwest Refineries Ready to Use M-U Crude
Donald Trump threatened and was prepared to implement a 25% tariff on both Mexico and Canada, including a 10% tariff (tax) on incoming oil and natural gas (and other energy) from Canada (see Trump Slaps Canada & Mexico with Tariffs, Including 10% on O&G). It took about 10 minutes for Mexico’s president to get on the horn with Trump and agree to implement plans to avoid the tariff. It took Canada about a day to do the same (Justin Trudeau is a petulant man-child, very stubborn). However, before we knew whether or not Canada would fold like a cheap suit, oil refineries operated by Marathon Petroleum in the Midwest were making plans to switch away from using heavy crude from Canada and replacing it with light sweet crude from the U.S., including crude from the Marcellus/Utica. Read More “Tariff Silver Lining: Midwest Refineries Ready to Use M-U Crude”
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024. 
Yesterday, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro delivered his 2025-26 Budget Address to the General Assembly and the people of Pennsylvania. He presented a bloated, whopping $51.47 billion budget for 2025-2026, a 7.5-percent increase over the current fiscal year. The budget proposed flops in many ways (like legalizing pot), but none more so than his doubling down on failed energy proposals, including support for a Marcellus-killing carbon tax. Dems never learn. 
The environmental left is panicked that it may be losing one of its bluest strongholds—the State of Maryland—with the introduction of a new bill by state Democrats (!) that would make it easier to build new natural gas-fired power plants. Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson and House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones, along with other Maryland Democrats, held a presser on Monday in the state capitol of Annapolis. Without revealing the actual language, the pair unveiled a new plan (bill) to reduce energy costs “while furthering the state’s clean energy ambitions” by building more “dispatchable” power. The enviro-left rightly assumes dispatchable means building gas-fired power plants. 
Arguably the most qualified person to ever become Secretary of the Department of Energy, Chris Wright (CEO of Liberty Energy, a fracking company) was confirmed on Monday by the full U.S. Senate (59-38 vote), replacing arguably the most unqualified person to ever hold the position, Jennifer Granholm. The comparison is striking. Chris Wright not only headed a major oil and gas company, but he also has experience with the nuclear energy space and advanced degrees in electrical AND mechanical engineering. Smart guy. Granholm, on the other hand, was a complete political hack picked by Biden to do the bidding of the radicalized left. She’s been a political hack her entire adult life, first as Attorney General and later as Governor of Michigan. She didn’t know (still doesn’t) a darned thing about energy, which is quite obvious. 
OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Permian natural gas production bounces back as cash prices fall; NATIONAL: Why New York and others must embrace natural gas; US Interior Department takes first steps to carry out Trump energy agenda; INTERNATIONAL: Why U.S. drillers are not the key to Trump’s Ukraine goals; Oil prices slip amid USA-China trade war fears; Colombia’s president orders national oil company to cancel US venture; China counters with tariffs on US products; U.S. declares energy emergency while Europe creates one; Despite challenges, global shipping eyes shift to lower-carbon bunker fuel. 
Prior to last week, the Baker Hughes national rig count had been in a freefall for weeks, dropping to a 3+ year low of 576 (see 
In December, Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO), the agency charged with providing revenue projections along with impartial and objective analysis of fiscal, economic, and budgetary issues for the citizens and legislature of Pennsylvania, provided its best guess as to how much revenue the PA impact fee (i.e., severance tax) will generate from shale wells drilled or flowing in 2024 (see 
A couple of encouraging signs for Infinity Natural Resources (INR) and its recent initial public offering (IPO). Two weeks ago, we told you that INR had pulled the trigger on its IPO and was offering new shares, targeting to receive somewhere between $18.00 and $21.00 per share (see 
The libs and swamp dwellers are apoplectic. The Bidenistas larded up government agencies with thousands of new employees over the past four years. The federal government added approximately 200,000 new employees in the past four years, with the most significant increase occurring in 2023, when the workforce grew by around 85,000 individuals. Donald Trump and his chosen ax man, Elon Musk (via the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE), are trimming the fat. Quickly. Including at the Environmental Protection Agency where 1,100 employees added to the payroll at EPA in the past year were notified that they are in danger of losing their jobs. Trump and Musk are hunting for swamp dwellers. 
Reading between the lines, we’d say the politicians in both Canada and Mexico are puking their guts out after Donald Trump actually did what he said he would do: He slapped a 25% tariff (i.e., tax) on any imports coming to the U.S. from either of our neighbors north and south. The new tax includes a 10% tax (tariff) on incoming oil and gas and other “energy products” from Canada. The new tariffs go into effect tomorrow (Tuesday, Feb. 4). Canada and Mexico will need to firm up their borders to stop illegal aliens from invading our country and to stop the cartels that are flooding America with drugs that are killing our residents. If Canada and Mexico don’t shore up the border and the tariffs remain in place long-term, their respective economies will tank, and their political “leaders” will be voted out of office so fast it will make your head spin. This is how real change happens, folks. 
For the week of Jan 20 – 26, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells fell off a proverbial cliff. Two weeks ago, 41 new permits were issued. Last week, the number plummeted to just seven new permits issued. Perhaps the most interesting thing about last week’s numbers is that NO new permits were issued in the Keystone State (PA). We believe that’s the first time we’ve seen no new permits in PA. We wonder if there’s a problem with the reporting system (the state DEP’s reporting system is known to occasionally have issues). We’ll check again next week to see if PA’s numbers get updated. Meanwhile, there were four new permits for the Buckeye State (OH) and three for the Mountain State (WV). 
Yesterday, CNX Resources issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 update. The company lost $145 million for the quarter, compared with a profit of $514 million in 4Q23. Production was 141.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) in 4Q24 — which works out to 1.54 Bcfe/d — down from 146.9 Bcfe last year (a drop of 3.4%). Drilling all but stopped during 3Q, and that trend continued in 4Q. The company drilled just one new Utica well in central PA. However, CNX fracked nine wells and brought six wells online to sales in southwestern PA.