Why Shale Oil Can’t Simply Turn the Spigot Off and Stop the Flow
We’re learning far more about the oil business than we ever thought we would, due to the price crash brought on by the coronavirus and the Saudis and Russians dumping. Yes, oil and gas are an industry that goes together–but natural gas really is a different kind of business overall. Different kind of drilling, different kind of pipelines, different economics. We don’t know about you, but we always thought an oil driller could simply shut-in a well (essentially turn off a valve) and later, when the economics returned, just open the valve again and let the oil flow. Boy were we wrong! Shutting in a well is a major decision with long-term consequences. It’s not just flipping a switch or turning a valve.
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Simon-Kucher & Partners, a global strategy and marketing consulting firm along with Rice University surveyed 195 oil and gas industry experts from around the world. They published their findings in a report titled “2020 Oil & Gas Crisis Study.” The upshot, the sentiment, is that the current crisis faced by oil companies is largely homegrown. We did it to ourselves.
MDN is floating a potential new feature. We’d like your feedback. Below are lists of new shale drilling permits issued for the past four weeks for each state: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. Permits issued are a strong indicator of future drilling activity. Typically it is a matter of weeks to perhaps a month or two after a new permit is issued when a driller begins work on a new well. Permits are one of the best ways of predicting future drilling activity.
MDN editor Jim Willis isn’t much into tooting his own horn. But, well, this is kind of slow news day, so we’ll toot. Marcellus Drilling News began as a hobby and side project in January 2009. Little did Jim know that it would grow to become his full-time job and in April 2020, the blog/news site would surpass having 20,000 posts. That milestone was reached last week.
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Marcellus Shale Coalition donates to Wayne Memorial Hospital; CNX Resources announces pricing of $300 million of convertible senior notes; NATIONAL: Trump could use ‘nuclear option’ to make Saudi Arabia pay for oil war; In 2019, U.S energy production exceeded consumption for the first time in 62 years; Here’s why oil majors may struggle to find bargains in the shale patch; Demise of U.S. shale means global oil price spikes this decade; Big changes impacting ethane and LPG markets; The ripple effects of COVID-19 on natural gas power generation; INTERNATIONAL: How these two countries could doom earth, according to UN chief.
CNX Resources released its first-quarter 2020 update yesterday, along with hosting a conference call with analysts. CEO Nick DeIuliis laid out a plan for the company for the next seven years. Silencing the naysaying critics who say shale companies are not profitable and some sort of Ponzi scheme, CNX says it is on track to make $300 million in free cash flow (i.e. profits) this year, $400 million next year, and then $500 million each year until 2026. CNX is a cash flow machine!
Energy Transfer’s Revolution Pipeline runs through Bulter, Beaver, Allegheny, and Washington counties in southwest PA. The 24-inch gathering pipeline shifted and exploded in September 2018, just as it was entering service (see 
The full U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) heard oral arguments yesterday in a case of major importance to the future of all federally-approved pipeline projects. The case revolves around the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) use of something called a tolling order in approving Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline (in the PA Marcellus). Big Green groups launched the lawsuit in an effort to strip away FERC’s right to use tolling orders when considering requests to “rehear” decisions to approve pipelines.
The shutdown of the world’s economy is not only affecting oil usage (and prices), it’s also affecting the usage and prices of LNG–liquefied natural gas. LNG and natgas usage are down around the world–particularly in Europe and Asia. Less demand means lower prices, and (in this case) the cancelation of a number of tankers that were supposed to deliver our LNG to other countries. Reuters is reporting 23 or more U.S. LNG cargoes for June loading have now been canceled.
In contrast to today’s story about LNG being on the ropes (see US LNG Export Cargoes Canceled as Coronavirus Destroys Demand), the International Gas Union (IGU) published its annual LNG report yesterday. The report highlights the material changes in the global LNG industry happening in 2019. The worldwide LNG trade increased by 13% to a total of 354.7 MT (million tons). The Marcellus/Utica gets a prominent shoutout in the report.
A Standford University professor who sued another scientist who dared to criticize his wacky views on renewable energy in a journal article sued the scientist and the journal for defamation. It took a while for the lawsuit to play out (two years), but a judge in the case recently ruled the Standford prof was wrong in filing the lawsuit and must now pay the attorney’s fees for those whom he sued. Sweet justice.
Last Friday PTT Global Chemical, the huge Thailand-based petrochemical company looking to build a world-class ethane cracker plant in Belmont County, OH, issued an update for the project. In February PTT’s CEO signaled that a final investment decision (FID) on whether (or not) to build the project would happen by “mid-year 2020” (see 
Last week as Chesapeake Energy’s stock plunged toward $0 in value, it seemed as if it was a matter of when (not if) the company would either declare bankruptcy or get bought out/taken over. The board of directors, sensing the takeover sharks were swirling, adopted a “shareholder rights plan” (aka poison pill) last Thursday to try and prevent another company or person or group from swooping in and buying up the company’s assets. And then a funny thing happened. On Friday Chessy’s stock price zoomed up 45%.
When will the practice of THE Delaware Riverkeeper (radial leftist “environmental” group) of filing frivolous lawsuits stop? Using money from the William Penn Foundation and the Heinz Endowments (both of which should be investigated by the IRS for violations of their 501(c)3 status by engaging in political activities via proxies like Riverkeeper), THE Delaware Riverkeeper has launched yet another attack on the New Fortress Energy proposed loading dock on the New Jersey side of the Delaware River, where Marcellus Shale LNG is due to be loaded onto ships bound for other countries.