Deep Dive into EQT Hedging, CEO Toby Rice’s “Brutal Honesty”
The third quarter was not kind to Marcellus/Utica drillers with respect to the official income statements. Why? In a word, hedging. Take EQT for example. During 3Q, EQT lost nearly $2 billion because of bad hedges–locking in prices to sell production far below current market prices (see EQT Lowers Pipeline Costs via New Deals, Eyes Export Opportunities). EQT was not alone, but because EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the country (averaged 5.5 Bcf/d in 3Q), it makes a great case study.
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The EQT Foundation was established in 2003 as a dedicated resource for financial, in-kind, and volunteer support to communities where EQT works and has a presence. Since its inception, the EQT Foundation has awarded more than $60 million to nonprofits throughout the operational footprint of EQT. That is an amazing number! In honor of Giving Tuesday, yesterday EQT announced the launch of two new giving programs to support the communities of Greene County, PA, and Wetzel County, WV.
Contrary to the false narrative spun by leftist media that “everyone,” especially large institutional investors, are divesting from and refusing to buy new investments in stocks of companies that drill for oil and natural gas, some of the largest institutional investors came off the sidelines and some (for the first time ever!) got into the game by investing in individual shale gas stocks in the Marcellus/Utica during the third quarter of 2021. Which big investors did the investing and how much did they invest/purchase in the way of stock? We have all the deets below…
Last week Pennsylvania issued 15 new permits for shale well drilling, up nicely from the prior week of just 2 new permits. Ohio issued 9 new permits last week, and West Virginia issued 8 new permits. All totaled, the M-U saw 32 new permits issued last week, the most we’ve seen in a single week for some time. More drilling on the way!
Last week MDN told you the news that EQT Corporation has sold part of its reserve capacity along the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to “an undisclosed investment-grade entity for six years” (see 
EQT, the country’s largest natural gas producer, issued its third quarter update yesterday. There was a LOT of news in the update. Where to start? Three important things to note from yesterday’s update: (1) EQT blew it on hedges, losing $2 billion during 3Q21 compared with losing $600 million in 3Q20. (2) CEO Toby Rice says the company is done, for now, with expanding by buying other companies. No more mergers and acquisitions. (3) EQT produced a whopping 495 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) during 3Q21, up 35% from the same period last year. That works out to be 5.5 Bcfe per day.
Although three major Marcellus/Utica drillers provided third quarter updates yesterday, we only cover EQT’s update in today’s lineup of stories. Come back Monday for details from both Antero Resources and CNX Resources. S&P Global Platts reviewed all three updates from yesterday and noticed a difference in how each of the three companies is approaching hedging, or preselling production for a specific price up to a year or more in advance. According to S&P, regaining investment-grade ratings for company stock was a stated goal by executives at all three companies during their 3Q earnings calls. They all aim to maximize free cash flows and paying down debt. Hedging programs were touted as the pathway to accomplish these balance-sheet goals.
It’s splitsville for EQT and Equitrans Midstream, the midstream company that was once part of EQT. In releasing details about third quarter performance, EQT announced yesterday it has sold nearly half of its contracted capacity with Equitrans for the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). MVP, when it goes online next year, will ship gas south. It seems EQT is looking West. In the same announcement yesterday, EQT said it has signed a new contract with the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline to ship even more of its gas to markets in the Midwest.
Equitrans Midstream, owner of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and a related gathering pipeline called Hammerhead designed to feed 1.6 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of Marcellus/Utica gas into MVP, says an arbitration panel ruled in its favor in a dispute with EQT Corp. over the delayed startup of Hammerhead. According to an 8-K filing, Equitrans said the three-member arbitration panel ruled that the in-service delay beyond October 1, 2020, for Hammerhead was caused by a force majeure, so EQT has no early termination right under the Hammerhead gathering agreement or related right to purchase the Hammerhead project.
The Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia (GO-WV) released a new report yesterday called “Gas Facts” (full copy below). The report chronicles the impact oil and gas has had on the Mountain State over the past five years. According to Charlie Burd, GO-WV executive director, “Natural gas is the state’s top-paying sector, supporting more than 82,000 jobs and contributing roughly $5.2 billion in wages each year. Clean, abundant natural gas will continue to drive economic growth and opportunities for generations of West Virginians.” It’s an interesting report. One thing in the report caught our eye immediately: Two “top 10” lists for gas and oil production. We’re suckers for a good top 10 list…
Hedging, in the case of natural gas produced by big drillers like EQT Corporation, is when the company presells the production it will make (in the future) under contract at a specific price. Typically companies like EQT will hedge production for up to a year, sometimes more, in advance. It’s a way of protecting revenue from production in case prices sink below a certain level. The problem with hedging is you are locked in when the price goes up and stays up, like the price for natgas has done over the past several months. According to Bloomberg, EQT’s hedges could cost the company “more than $5 billion through the end of next year.” Ouch. CEO Toby Rice openly admits the company guessed wrong on its hedges.
Small investors have a golden opportunity. Oil and gas companies (drillers in particular) are more profitable than ever, yet many large investors are avoiding and will not invest in them. Why? Because they’re idiots? Well, yes, that’s one reason. But the root cause is they have been cowed by loud-mouthed environmental extremists. Threatened by them. Oil and gas companies are still here, still providing a critical service to the world, and still need investors. That’s a great opportunity for small investors–like you.