Natural Gas Marketed in North America Slides 4% in 2Q21
Each quarter NGI (Natural Gas Intelligence) runs the numbers and publishes a list of the 25 top natural gas marketers in the U.S. These are not necessarily the top 25 producers of natural gas (although in some cases they are), but the top 25 sellers (vendors, jobbers) of natural gas. NGI’s latest quarterly report shows overall the biggest sellers of natgas lost ground once again in 2Q21, which continues a 2+ year trend of year over year declines in the amount of gas sold.
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Although the price of natural gas has rocketed this year and cash flows for Marcellus/Utica drillers have ballooned, showering drillers with plenty of free cash flow, M-U drillers are spending less (19% less) on capital expenditures than they did in 2020. Production in the M-U is up slightly by 4% so far in 2021 vs. 2020. The experts at RBN Energy have dived into this latest twist in the shale story to help explain what’s going on and why.
A nice bump up (finally) in the number of permits to drill new shale wells in the M-U, although it’s a lot of wells for a relatively few well pads. Pennsylvania issued 19 new permits across five pads in both the northeast and southwest portion of the play, including 8 permits for a single Cabot Oil & Gas pad in Susquehanna County. Ohio issued just 3 new permits, all to Encino Energy for a single pad in Carroll County. And West Virginia issued a surprisingly high 18 permits to two drillers on three pads in two counties: Marshall and Monongalia.
Because of the soaring price of natural gas (see our companion post today), and because gas drillers have shown remarkable restraint and a real effort to scale back capital spending in an effort to generate free cash flow, investors have taken note and like what they’ve seen. The share price in most pure-play shale gas producers (mainly those in the M-U) posted double-digit gains in value over the past month.
During the second quarter (May through June), ten of the largest oil and gas producers covered by S&P Global Market Intelligence saw their NGL (natural gas liquids) revenues grow substantially from the same period a year ago. Those ten companies, half of them drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region, saw NGL prices increase from 104% to as high as 261%. The extra money from NGLs made what turned out to be a down quarter financial-wise (because of bad bets on hedges) better than it would have otherwise been.
Yesterday EQT, the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., issued its second quarter 2021 update. There’s a lot to unpack. While the company produced 4.7 Bcfe/d of natural gas and liquids in 2Q and $155 million in free cash flow, the company lost $936 million during 2Q21 versus losing just $263 million in 2Q20. The loss came from a bet on derivatives gone bad that cost the company $1.3 billion. Oops. There was plenty of talk about “sustainable shale” and ESG efforts. CEO Toby Rice touted the recent successful acquisition of Alta Resources, which closed on July 21.
Expectations coming from Wall Street are that pure-play drillers, like many in the Marcellus/Utica, will show a turnaround in their financials for the second quarter of 2021. According to S&P, investors took drillers at their word last year that they won’t “drill baby drill” the way they have in years gone by. The stock prices of nearly all major M-U drillers have soared over the past 12 months as a result. The biggest turnaround has been Antero Resources. Its stock price is up nearly 400% over the past 12 months! Range Resources’ stock price is up 140%.
For all the chatter about ESG and environmental yada yada, at the end of the day every Marcellus and Utica driller drills for and extracts hydrocarbons. Fossil fuels. As the de facto leader of all natural gas drillers, it’s important and instructive to watch what EQT and its young CEO, Toby Rice, actually do AND say. EQT and Rice are leading the charge to defend our industry against the crazies who want to end the use of all fossil fuels. In a recent column appearing in a West Virginia newspaper, Rice makes the case that natural gas is good for the economy and good for the environment.