EIA Dec. STEO Raises Winter HH Spot Gas Price Forecast by 40 Cents
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best estimate of where energy prices and production will head over the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA forecasts the cold snap hitting the United States this month will drive the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average almost $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter, which is 40 cents/MMBtu higher than its November forecast of $3.90. The price increase is driven by increased natural gas consumption for space heating. Read More “EIA Dec. STEO Raises Winter HH Spot Gas Price Forecast by 40 Cents”
Pennsylvania has a big problem. The state is retiring older coal- and gas-fired power plants faster than it can add new plants. Plus, the state needs to *grow* its electric generation capacity to meet new demand from AI data centers. PA State Senator Gene Yaw has a solution: modify the existing 1971 Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) tax credit program by adding a provision granting a tax credit for any $400+ million investment in “baseload power generation” (i.e., gas-fired power generation). Yaw wants to make it a no-brainer for power plant builders to make the Keystone State their destination for new projects. 
We’ll open this post with this statement: There are no active rumors (that we are aware of) that Permian/Anadarko/Marcellus driller Coterra Energy is considering a merger with Permian/Anadarko/Monteny driller Ovintiv (formerly Encana). We did spot a post by Rystad Energy analysts who theorize that both companies (peers) would make a great combined company. The comments are part of a post titled “US shale braces for next consolidation wave as smaller players seek scale.” Rystad’s theory is that we will soon see smaller independents begin to merge to defend against the recent merger mania by larger companies, including ExxonMobil, Diamondback, Occidental, and ConocoPhillips. 
A new RBN article takes a stab at distinguishing between the hype of future data center power demand and the reality of current grid consumption. Despite projections of massive energy usage, verifying actual draw is difficult due to utility confidentiality and behind-the-meter generation. RBN’s analysis reveals that today’s largest consumers are long-established campuses rather than new builds; specifically, Google’s Council Bluffs and Microsoft’s Quincy facilities top the list with estimated loads of 500–600 MW. The article concludes that because substantial capacity takes over a decade to scale, the market should remain skeptical of new facilities claiming immediate, massive power consumption. 
The rapid expansion of data centers, driven by AI and cloud computing, is creating a surge in energy demand that exceeds renewable capabilities, forcing a shift toward natural gas. Good news for the Marcellus/Utica. However, building new pipelines to handle the extra gas needed is not an overnight process. Industry experts at the recent LDC Gas Forums’ Nat Gas to Power event proposed an ingenious solution that uses existing pipelines to move more gas to new data center customers. 
OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Venture Global hits back at Shell’s fraud claims in LNG arbitration battle; Dem-leaning group roasts NY’s green energy law as an ‘undeniable’ failure; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas extends pullback on shifting weather outlook; A different inconvenient truth (this one is true); EIA to ditch some existing reports and launch new surveys on minerals, data centers; U.S. LNG feedgas demand at record levels; Datacenter boom drives rapid power grid innovation; INTERNATIONAL: Oil falls again on oversupply signs; BMI analysts make 2026 oil demand prediction. 
Pennsylvania assesses an impact fee (PA’s version of a severance tax) on shale drillers, raising revenues that are paid to local municipalities (60% collected) and the black hole of Harrisburg politicians (40%). Yesterday, the PA Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issued an estimate of how much the impact fee will raise this year, with the funds distributed in April of next year. The IFO says it expects, based on the price of natural gas and the number of new and existing wells, that PA will generate $239.9 million from the impact fee in 2025, a huge $75.3 million (46%) increase from 2024. The average fee per well generated will be $19,056 in 2025, up from $13,560 (41%) in 2024. 
The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) published proposed revisions to its Chapter 102 Erosion and Sediment Control permit. The DEP is now accepting comments on the changes until January 20. The primary goal of the revision is “regulatory alignment.” Since the original policy was written in 2012, Pennsylvania passed the Chapter 78a (Unconventional) regulations (in 2016) and updated the ESCGP-4 permit (in 2024). The new draft updates the policy to match these legally binding rules rather than creating entirely new standards. The most significant change coming is an increase in setbacks to”support facilities” from 900 feet to 1,320 feet. 
We are checking in as we regularly do on the price of natural gas—both the futures price and the spot price in the Marcellus/Utica. Yesterday, the NYMEX futures price for natural gas got clobbered, falling 37.7 cents (-7.13%) to $4.9120 per million British thermal units (MMBtus). We’re still delighted that the price is so high! Don’t be bummed. But why did it fall? In a word, a new weather forecast showed U.S. temperatures warming mid-month, potentially curbing natgas heating demand. It can’t stay cold forever. (We woke up to 0 on the thermometer here in the Southern Tier of New York. We’re ready for warmer weather!) What about the spot (physical) price at various trading hubs in the M-U region? They’ve gone down a bit since last week, but we’re still thrilled where they are, too. 
The left is so amusing when it turns against one of its own. New York Governor Kathy Hochul is a card-carrying leftist. She has done her best to phase out the use of fossil fuels, including natural gas, throughout the state. She tried to force the state to abandon using natural gas and oil for heating and cooking in new construction (currently on hold in the courts). Under her direction, the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) rejected permits for multiple existing (and new) gas-fired power plants. She’s forcing anyone who does connect to natural gas to pay the cost of running the pipeline to the house (or business). She signed a law banning the use of CO2 for fracking. She hates oil and gas! Yet by allowing two gas pipelines and vetoing a bill last week that would have banned the use of brine on roads during winter, the left turns against her and labels her “gassy Kathy.” Hilarious! 
Did we call it, or did we call it? MDN was among (perhaps THE) first to tell readers that so-called environmental groups were quickly morphing from anti-fracking to anti-data center (
Antero Resources, the country’s fifth-largest natural gas producer and largest producer in West Virginia, is growing its WV operations. This morning, the company announced a deal to buy privately held WV driller and midstreamer HG Energy II for a combined (upstream & midstream) $3.9 billion. The deal will add a massive 385,000 net acres to Antero’s existing ~475,000 net core Marcellus acreage position, bringing with it another 850 MMcfe/d in production. The upstream part of the deal will fetch $2.8 billion, while the midstream will get $1.1 billion. HG Energy is a West Virginia corporation with its headquarters office located in Parkersburg. 
The second round of big news coming from Antero Resources today is the sale of the company’s Utica Shale assets. We told you in November that Antero, the largest Marcellus/Utica (M-U) driller in West Virginia, officially began to market its Ohio Utica assets for sale (see 
The number of new permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica from November 24 – 30 was a paltry 8, down from 23 issued the prior week. We typically issue these weekly permit updates on Fridays, but last Friday, the PA DEP website, where we extract information, threw an error, so we delayed until today. This morning the PA DEP site shows only a single permit was issued during that period, so we don’t know whether there are still data problems. For now, we’re going with the information as it is (and will recheck it later this week). So, given that proviso, Pennsylvania issued 1 new permit, down 22 from the prior week. Ohio got skunked, issuing no new permits for the second week in a row. Hey ODNR, wake up! West Virginia issued 7 new permits, down from issuing 10 permits the prior week.