NatGas Trader Predicts Max Upside is $2.20/Mcf Foreseeable Future
The price of natural gas in various locations, including the NYMEX futures price, has been inching up over the past few days. Yesterday the NYMEX price closed down slightly, at $1.88/Mcf. But that’s better than the $1.60 territory where it’s been bumping around. The price is inching up because of the Saudi-Russian oil price war. Most traders figure there will be less shale oil drilling in the U.S., and because of it, less associated natural gas production from places like the Permian (and Bakken). Which in turn means less supply, driving up prices for natgas. How long will prices go up? And, how high will the price go? We spotted one trader’s take on where he believes prices are heading.
Read More “NatGas Trader Predicts Max Upside is $2.20/Mcf Foreseeable Future”
U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer and other liberal Democrats don’t give a fig about the American shale industry. Yesterday there was talk about President Trump and his administration offering low-interest loans to shale oil companies to keep them afloat during this Saudi-Russian oil price war (see 
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Gov. Cuomo’s big promise to free the state fairgrounds of fossil fuels: What’s the status?; NATIONAL: EIA’s 50% Carbon-Free Generation side case projects little effect on CO2 emissions; U.S. LNG exports grow in a weakening, highly uncertain market; INTERNATIONAL: Prolonged oil price slide factoring more into global natural gas market, analysts say; Saudi oil price war unlikely to have quick end, says GlobalData; Portugal books US, Nigerian LNG cargoes; UAE joins battle with Saudi Arabia and Russia to grab bigger share of oil market.
According to super-secret sources, The White House is “strongly considering” a federal aid package for oil and gas companies affected by the Saudi-Russia oil price war and lingering effects from COVID-19 coronavirus panic. The proposed federal aid is called by some a “bailout.” But the Trumpsters and the O&G industry reject that label. Reportedly under consideration is a program of low-interest government loans. Regardless of what you call it (bailout or help), the U.S. has a vested interest in ensuring our domestic O&G industry does not get wiped out, plunging us back into dependence on despotic foreigners for our energy.
We continue our coverage of the historic (in a bad way) oil price war started by Russia against American shale drillers, now complicated by Saudi Arabia as they have turned the spigot wide open to pump as much oil as they can, resulting in a price crash for oil. From time to time we’ve featured comments and reports issued by IHS Markit, a global analytics company that tracks data in the oil and gas industry. Yesterday we received IHS Markit’s “key conclusions” from the latest assessment of oil markets. It’s called, “Oil Markets and Industry Brace for Crash as Supply Floodgates Open.” We think it’s about the best summation of what has happened (so far), and what’s likely to happen in the near- and medium-term.
Enverus, a leading oil and gas SaaS and data analytics company, yesterday released its latest FundamentalEdge report, called “Marcellus Natural Gas Flows,” which is focused on natural gas production and pipeline flow patterns in the Marcellus and Utica formations in the Northeast, MidAtlantic, and Midwestern regions of the U.S. Enervus measures gas flows along pipelines and as part of the preview of their report has shared with MDN some fascinating information. Like this: Some 41% of the gas produced in the Marcellus flows to the Mid-Atlantic region. Who knew?!
On Monday there were dueling rallies at the Capitol in Harrisburg, PA, for and against a new petrochemical bill, House Bill (HB) 1100, that promises to bring thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars of investment to the Keystone State (see 
Although in 2019 the price of natural gas began a decline, and gas-focused companies scaled back drilling programs, the U.S. still hit a new all-time high record of natural gas production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says U.S. natural gas production measured as gross withdrawals (the most comprehensive measure of natural gas production) averaged 111.5 Bcf/d in 2019, the highest volume on record. The biggest jump in production in 2019 did not come from associated gas in the Permian Basin. Rather, the biggest jump came from (yep) the Marcellus/Utica.
Something truly historic happened yesterday. And there is a tie-in to the Marcellus/Utica (which we’ll get to, stick with us). At its core, what happened yesterday is pretty simple to grasp, although most media stories you read either miss it or bury it. Last Friday Russia told OPEC it would no longer participate in coordinating production cuts with Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries in an effort to boost the price of oil (see 
Montage Resources provided an update on fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 performance and what to expect in 2020 last Friday. You may recall Montage is the name of the company that resulted after the merger of Eclipse Resources with Blue Ridge Mountain Resources one year ago (see 
Dueling rallies at the Capitol in Harrisburg, PA yesterday provide the perfect picture of the difference between reasonable and unreasonable, between behavior that is adult and behavior that is juvenile, between pro-fossil fuel and anti-fossil fuel. It was also the perfect picture to describe why there is now an open civil war in the PA Democrat Party, and why trade union members are leaving the Dems in droves. The two rallies were there to support (or oppose) House Bill (HB) 1100, aimed at attracting new petrochemical investments to the state.
At first efforts by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and its Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (launched five years ago) was aimed at tests to ensure fracking of shale wells (in all regions) does not harm the environment. It worked. NETL did prove that modern drilling and fracking is safe. Now the NETL mission has changed. New NETL tests launched across the country over the past year will help drillers understand how to frack even better than they do now! Yes, it can help drillers with their bottom line, but the purpose of NETL’s testing goes far beyond that.
Mudrock Energy is a consulting company based near Pittsburgh that provides specialized geoscience analysis and market research across the energy industry. Mudrock founder and CEO Dave Boyer, an AAPG Certified Petroleum Geologist, recently worked up an analysis of Pennsylvania’s shale production. He published his research on the Medium website and sent us a link with an encouragement to share it with the MDN audience. In his analysis, Boyer makes the case that PA’s continuing expansion of ever more production needs to stop. NOW.