BofA Predicts NatGas Price Could Crash Below $2 in Early 2024
We continue to monitor the price of natural gas, which has remained mired in the mid-$2 range for months on end. Every time it seems like it might make a run for $3, the price slides–as it did yesterday (down $0.12 to close at $2.73). We spotted two somewhat contradictory stories about the price of gas, both published by Reuters. One story is about a prediction from Bank of America, which said in a note that if we have a mild winter (as some are predicting), it’s quite possible the price of natgas will crash below $2 during the first quarter of 2024.
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Commonwealth LNG is developing a 9.3 MTPA (million tons per annum) liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal project located on the Calcasieu River in the Gulf of Mexico near Cameron, Louisiana. Commonwealth anticipates a final investment decision for the project in the first quarter of 2024, with the first cargo deliveries expected in 2027. According to an announcement yesterday, just over 10% of the gas that will get liquefied and exported will come from EQT Corporation’s Marcellus/Utica operations.
New shale permits issued for Sep 4 – 10 in the Marcellus/Utica continued to be in the crapper. There were 14 new permits issued last week, up 1 from 13 issued two weeks ago, and down from the 16 issued three weeks ago. Not so long ago we routinely saw 30+ issued each week. Last week’s permit tally included 8 new permits in Pennsylvania, no new permits in Ohio, and 6 new permits in West Virginia. The top permittee for the week was Antero Resources, which received six permits in WV.
ExxonMobil recently published “The Global Outlook,” the company’s latest view of energy demand and supply through 2050. The document forms the basis for Exxon’s business planning and is “underpinned by a deep understanding of long-term market fundamentals.” Exxon is making short-term decisions based on this long-term document. And what does this document say? It says, contrary to the fantasies of leftists, that fossil energy (petroleum, natural gas, and coal) will still make up 68% of the world’s energy sources in 2050, some 30 years from now. That’s down from 82% today. Oil and gas by themselves will provide 54% of the world’s energy in 2050. O&G is still the one.
Last week, MDN told you about Gulfport Energy drilling three Utica Shale wells in Ohio (with a fourth underway) that are massive 4-mile wells (see 
Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May 2021 with a new board and top management. In January of this year, the company appointed a new CEO, John Reinhart, the former President and CEO of M-U driller Montage Resources Corporation before that company was gobbled up by Southwestern Energy (see 
Diversified Energy (formerly Diversified Gas & Oil), with major assets in the Marcellus/Utica region (and other regions, too), owns approximately 8 million acres of leases with 67,000 (mostly) conventional oil and gas wells. The company’s business model is to buy lower-producing wells on the cheap and find ways to make them more productive. The company issued its latest update, for the first half of 2023, last Friday. Paul Gough, from the Pittsburgh Business Times, listened to the conference call and combed through the update. He hit on a key piece of news: Diversified has accelerated its program to plug old wells (its own wells in addition to orphaned wells) this year. In fact, the company has already (as of June 30) plugged 174 wells for the first half of the year. That number includes 87 of Diversified’s own wells.
Quick history lesson. In 2004, Range Resources was the first company to drill and frack the first Marcellus Shale gas well, which happened in Mt. Pleasant Township (Washington County), PA. It was love at first sight. Over the past almost 20 years, Range has added a few other counties to the list of place where it drills, and the company remains headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. However, Range considers Washington County, PA, “our core, our home, the DNA of our company.” The bond of love is still strong all these years later.
Antero Resources and Antero Midstream have donated a massive $4 million to West Virginia University’s Benjamin M. Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources to help train the next generation of petroleum and natural gas engineers. Antero’s gift is the largest philanthropic donation to the school to date. It will support undergraduate and graduate students in the petroleum and natural gas engineering program.
Last Friday, MDN told you about a new Cambridge University study published in the journal Science exposing the sale of carbon credits as a scam (see