New Pipelines Raise Gas Prices for M-U Drillers by 30% in 2017
Pipelines make a HUGE difference in the price drillers can get for their gas. When more pipelines get built to haul gas out of an over-saturated/producing area, like the Marcellus/Utica, the higher the price drillers can get for their gas. It’s simple Economics 101. Right now we have too much supply and not enough demand. When pipelines start flowing our gas to other markets, it the over-supply goes to places where there’s not enough supply and prices go up. This is not just theory. It’s fact. Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has done an analysis of the price fetched for Marcellus/Utica gas for the first seven months of 2017 versus the same period in 2016. Extra/new pipeline capacity has come online in the first half of 2017. The EIA found that in the first seven months of 2016, our gas averaged a sale price of $0.76 below the benchmark Henry Hub price. In the first seven months of 2017, our gas averaged a sale price of $0.53 below the Henry Hub. The gap is narrowing year over year. That 53 cent price is a 30% improvement over last year. So yes, pipelines make a HUGE difference in the price of natural gas!…
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Everyone wants to know where the price of natural gas will go in the future. Ask one analyst, and he/she will tell you it’s going lower. Another? Staying where it is–for a long time. And yet another will tell you the price just HAS to go higher. Of course “the price” of natural gas is not just one price. Most people refer to the benchmark Henry Hub price, used for trading futures contracts on the NYMEX exchange. All other prices where gas is bought and sold are somehow compared to or even connected with the price of gas at the Henry Hub. We spotted a speculative post on the Seeking Alpha investor’s website from someone we often read, Andrew Hecht, muses that he thinks the price of natgas is heading higher. He makes a convincing case. We boil it down and simplify it to this: an increase in LNG exports, of which we wrote about yesterday (see US Exports Now 2.4% of NatGas Production, Heading for 11% in 2019 //marcellusdrilling.com/2017/08/us-exports-now-2-4-of-natgas-production-heading-for-11-in-2019/), plus scads of new natgas-fired electric plants coming online, which we write about all the time, plus a cold snap across the country, but particularly in the northeast, would necessarily drive natural gas prices at the Henry Hub and other locations MUCH higher. Is he right?…
Late last week Cabot Oil & Gas, one of our favorite big Marcellus drillers, released their second quarter 2017 update. And man oh man, was it full of interesting items! Daily natural gas production was up 14% over the same period last year. During 2Q17, Cabot averaged 1.77 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day of net Marcellus production (2.1 Bcf/d gross operated production). Also during 2Q17, Cabot drilled 13.7 net Marcellus wells, completed 8.0 net wells and placed 6.0 net wells on production. Financially, the company continues to be a cash-making machine, generating positive free cash flow for the fifth consecutive quarter. During the first half of this year, it cost Cabot an average of $2.01 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) to extract and sell the gas. That’s all expenses. And Cabot made an average of $2.51/Mcf selling that gas. That’s a profit of $0.50/Mcf (or 20% profit). If we could invest $1 and get back $1.20 for every dollar invested, we’d be happy to do that all day long! Cabot is currently operating two drilling rigs and one completion crew in the Marcellus. One of the most interesting (and underreported) parts of the Cabot conference call last Friday is CEO Dan Dinges’ comments on the long-delayed Constitution Pipeline. He said, “we feel more optimistic about this project coming online in the next few years than we did say a year ago.” It seems Cabot (and Williams, the builder of the Constitution) are closely watching what happens with the Millennium Pipeline and Millennium’s request to FERC to override the New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation (DEC), which is blocking the Millennium(and the Constitution). Although the Constitution awaits a court decision from the U.S. Second Circuit Court, they are planning other strategies. Dinges also addressed the PennEast Pipeline project, now stalled in New Jersey. Below is last week’s update, excerpts from the conference call, and the Cabot slide deck full of good information…
A quick oil & gas lesson, for new MDN readers. A DUC is a Drilled but UnCompleted well. Many times drillers will drill the initial hole in the ground, but then not “complete” (or frack) the well. Why do that? For a variety of reasons. The biggest reason is usually because the commodity price of gas (or oil, depending on the well) is not favorable. Rather than lose the lease a company paid good money for, they will begin the process by drilling, and then leaving, the well–only to return later to complete it when prices go up again. Keeping an eye on DUC inventories tells you a lot about the economics of a commodity–what drillers believe will happen in the near-term with the price for that commodity. Once upon a time both the oil and natural gas industries tracked together. When there was more drilling (and production) for oil, there was also more drilling and production for gas. The prices for both oil and gas tracked along the same path. What is now obvious–has been obvious for some time–is that “tracking together” is no longer the case. Each commodity, oil and gas, now have their own economics, driven by different factors. What makes it evident that oil and gas economics have now separated are DUCs. Right now oil drillers are drilling but not completing wells like crazy, piling up a high DUC inventory, saving wells for later, when prices improve. However, DUCs for natural gas are going down, especially in the Marcellus/Utica region, which means drillers believe prices will soon go higher for natgas. The fewer DUCs there are, the more new drilling there will be…
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article appearing in today’s edition that points out the Permian Basin shale play (in West Texas) may, in a few years, “rival new gas output” from the mighty Marcellus Shale. Really? Where did that come from?! It makes a great deal of sense. The Permian is an oil-focused play. Drillers can’t stand enough rigs in the Permian fast enough. Drilling for oil in the Permian at $50/barrel is profitable–for everyone. So where does natural gas come in? Ever read about “associated gas” here on MDN? We’ve talked about it a fair deal over the years. Whenever you drill for one hydrocarbon–like oil–you get other hydrocarbons coming out of the borehole too. Like natural gas, and gas liquids (propane, ethane, butane, etc.). The converse is also true. Drillers targeting natural gas sometimes get oil and NGLs. In the Permian, an “oil play,” there is a LOT of associated gas coming out of the holes drilled, along with the oil. And the massive drilling program under way there means overall output from the Permian may, at some point, rival (or come close to) the output in the Marcellus. What does that mean for Marcellus drillers and landowners?…
We’ve written a number of times about DUCs–otherwise known as drilled-but-uncompleted wells. When a shale driller drills a new well, it doesn’t always happen all in one go. You first drill the hole down, and then curve the drillbit and drill the horizontal portion–called the lateral. Then you pull the drill bit out of the ground and (at some point) the fracking process begins. Fracking doesn’t always happen right away. Sometimes wells are initially drilled but not fracked–essentially putting them in inventory to be fracked later. Those wells are DUCs. Since a lot of the cost to develop the well has already been spent in preparing the site and drilling the hole, to come along at a later time and frack is much “cheaper” if you (as a driller) want to bump up your production. Price of gas low right now? Drill the initial hole, mothball the project, and come back later when the price of gas goes up and finish it off and hook it up to production. The DUC inventory is a closely watched number. Analysts at Platts have been watching and have noticed something interesting. In most shale plays–particularly oil plays like the Permian in Texas–drillers are sinking initial holes as fast as they can and the DUC inventory numbers are going up up up. The Permian has seen 476 new DUCs added since January! But in the Marcellus, only 3 new DUCs have been added since last December. Which is “puzzling.” What does it mean?…
As MDN began reporting last week, Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline, a $4 billion, 711-mile Marcellus/Utica natural gas pipeline that will run from PA, WV and eastern OH through OH into Michigan and eventually into Canada, has quickly become a soap opera. MDN brought you the news that Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline project has been fined by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA) for $431,000 for “18 incidents involving mud spills from drilling, stormwater pollution and open burning at Rover pipeline construction sites have been reported between late March and Monday” (see 
Regina Mayor is leader of energy and natural resources for the consulting firm KPMG. She’s located in Houston. However, she recently made a trip to California to speak at the Stanford University Precourt Institute for Energy. Her topic? “How Energy CEOs are Adapting in the Downturn.” We have a video of her full talk below. It’s compelling. Mayor recounts how oil and gas companies had to figure out how to make money in a low price environment. She also observes that all sectors of the energy industry are pumped on Trump: “Everyone in the industry seems to think that they’re going to be a winner under this administration. The wind and solar guys and gals, the coal folks, the gas, the upstream, the downstream, everyone believes that they’re going to win…where I come from, you always know that that can’t be the case. Logic tells you that can’t be the case. But I do find the level of optimism quite fascinating.” Below is a summary of her talk, and the video…
A Bloomberg article caught our eye. It says natural gas being exported by Cheniere Energy (in southern Louisiana) is being sold to counties like Mexico, Japan and Jordan for over $7 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Why is that significant and how is it related to the Marcellus/Utica? It’s significant because gas right now is selling in the U.S. for an average of around $3/Mcf. In some places, like the Marcellus/Utica region, it sells for much less. Yesterday gas sold at the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Zone 4 Marcellus trading hub sold for $2.61/Mcf. If producers can sell their gas overseas at double the price–happy days are here again! How does that relate to the Marcellus/Utica? Some of the gas being sold by Cheniere comes from the Marcellus/Utica. And later this year, Dominion will have finished and will power up their massive LNG export facility in Cove Point, Maryland. When that happens, 100% of the gas exported will go to two countries: Japan and India. And it will likely be sold for prices like Cheniere is seeing–around $7/Mcf. That is really good news for the producers who have signed contracts with Cove Point…
Yesterday MDN brought you a story about the difference, in the price drillers get for their gas, that a single pipeline can make (see 
Major multinational bank Société Générale, headquartered in Paris but with major operations here in the U.S., has just issued a 37-page report on U.S. commodities. The theme of the report caught our attention: “Five facts about shale: it’s coming back, and coming back strong.” Analysts working for Société Générale asked themselves this question: Will the U.S. recovery in oil and gas production offset OPEC cuts? They review some of the key dynamics of U.S. shale production in their report. Specifically, they highlight five facts about U.S. shale production that all point to the same underlying trend: shale is coming back in a big way…
Good news for natural gas drillers in general, and Marcellus/Utica drillers in particular: Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts the average price for natural gas in the U.S. will rise in both 2017 and 2018. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2017 and $3.73/MMBtu in 2018, both higher than the 2016 average of $2.51/MMBtu. Higher prices in 2017 and 2018 reflect natural gas consumption and exports exceeding supply and imports, leading to lower average inventory levels…
How low can you go? Natural gas spot prices in 2016 averaged $2.49 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), or more commonly per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the national benchmark Henry Hub. That is the lowest annual average price for natgas since 1999. The monthly average price fell below $2.00/Mcf from February through May, but later increased, ending the year at an average of $3.58/Mcf in December. Marcellus/Utica drillers would LOVE to see prices like $2.49 or $3.58. Prices in the northeast, because of lack of takeaway pipelines, sometimes sank below $1/Mcf at certain trading points…