Post Carbon Institute’s Peak Marcellus Gas Theories Obliterated
In 2014 David Hughes from the so-called Post Carbon Institute made one of the stupidest remarks he’s ever made when he said, “I think the Marcellus is getting pretty close to the peak in [total] production…I wouldn’t be surprised to see a peak in the Marcellus this year, maybe next year at the latest.” Dumb. Marcellus (and Utica) production has done nothing but go up since that time. Oh, the last few months the EIA has reported that Marcellus production is declining–a little bit. But that’s because of a lack of new drilling due to low low prices, a situation that is right now turning around. You can expect Marcellus production to pick up again very soon. The fact is, there is decades (perhaps centuries) of Marcellus/Utica Shale gas supplies waiting to be tapped–with no let-up in sight. Forbes contributor Jude Clemente, one of our favorite Forbes writers, goes on a riff to talk about the huge amount of gas available in the northeast, and its key role in U.S. production…
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Over the years MDN has watched various threatened and endangered species get listed, which impacts drillers and midstreamers. Most notably in the northeast has been the northern long-eared bat (see 
Weather is a major driver in the natural gas markets and primary cause for ups and downs in the price of natural gas. The hotter or colder it is, the more natgas is used for cooling (in the summer) or heating (in the winter). Some of the best weather forecasters in the business can be found making predictions for the energy markets–specifically in the natgas market. One of the country’s top weather outfits is AccuWeather. The forecasters at AccuWeather have just released their long-range forecast for the winter months in the U.S. Their forecast shows much colder and snowier conditions in the northeast than we experienced last year. If their prediction comes true, it means gas prices in our region may move higher (watch out pipeline deficient New England, your gas AND electric rates will skyrocket again), and it means drillers will face challenges with drilling through the winter months. Here’s what AccuWeather says (and shows, via maps) about the coming 3-4 months across the country…
Events related to drilling in the Marcellus and Utica Shale, primarily pro-drilling.
The “best of the rest” – stories that caught MDN’s eye that you may be interested in reading. In today’s lineup: Downstream expansion will boost ethane prices; northeast pipeline plans will affect more than just the northeast; Bob Howarth goes all-in on fractivist shilling; Ohio Valley running gasoline made from Utica oil in cars; PA DEP won’t change water notifications even though Supreme Court struck down law; counties near cracker plant will benefit; OPEC decision good news for shale in US; and more!
What if a couple of really smart analysts who work next to each other, guys who challenge each other every day, analysts who study and focus on natural gas production, were to pull the curtain back and reveal to the world what kinds of discussion and repartee they engage in? In particular, disclose their discussions and debate about the Marcellus/Utica? For those of us who eat/sleep/breath shale energy in the northeast, that would be wicked cool. And that’s just what MDN editor Jim Willis was treated to at S&P Global Platts’ Benposium East event in New York this past Wednesday. Luke Jackson, senior energy analyst with Platts Analytics, and Jeff Moore, also a senior energy analyst with Platts Analytics (the Bentek Products division) both live and work in Denver, CO. Their session at Benposium was titled, “Opposing Views–Northeast Production: Boom or Bust?” The two decided it would spice up what is normally a pretty dry conference presentation by standing on the stage and conducting a classic Oxford-style debate, where a motion is offered and one person argues “for” the motion, the other “against.” The motion they put forward was this: “Will Northeast production remain the sole engine of US natural gas production growth in the next 1-3 years, offsetting declines from the rest of the US and allowing overall US production to push higher?” In other words, can the Marcellus/Utica keep expanding production fast enough that it offsets declining production in other plays, or will those other plays need to increase their output too–to meet growing US demand? Luke argued for the motion and Jeff against. What was the conclusion? Keep reading! The boys used a dynamite PowerPoint slide deck. We asked for and got a copy of it and share it with you below. You need to take time to review the slides–they are awesome! Loaded with details. Below we also have some of our notes–quips and tidbits of information that caught our attention as the boys debated…
Peters Township, the most populous township in Washington County, PA, is one of the seven selfish towns that sued the state over the zoning provisions in the Act 13 law, eventually winning at the PA Supreme Court level (see 
At last week’s Shale Insight conference in Pittsburgh, this this past Wednesday at Platts’ Benposium East conference in New York, there was one topic of conversation that pretty much dominated the discussion: pipelines. Without new “takeaway” capacity in the northeast, we’re in trouble. Many types of people watch the pipeline space for varying reasons. Investors keep an eye on it because they want to invest, or they’ve invested in producers who need to get their gas (and oil) to market. Upstream (drillers) are vitally interested. Midstream (pipeline) companies are interested, needless to say. But so too are the construction companies, much of whose livelihood depends on building the pipelines. So it makes perfect sense that an industry magazine like Construction Equipment Guide would run an article updating their readers on the status of various pipeline projects. Most of the projects in the list are in the northeast, or somehow connected to production coming from the northeast. Below is their helpful roundup listing important, major projects–with a description and the current status of the project…
Yesterday MDN reported that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has essentially gutted the rest of the Act 13 drilling law passed in 2012 (see 
Following up on yesterday’s Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision to eviscerate the rest of the 2012 Act 13 drilling law (see 
Since before Aubrey McClendon left the helm at Chesapeake Energy, the company has been controversial and to one degree or another, in hot water. Legally. You’ve read plenty on MDN about who’s sued Chessy, over royalties, over collusion on land deals, over nonpayments to suppliers. You’ve also read about various investigations by various government entities into Chesapeake and their practices. It appears like it’s all reaching a fevered pitch. Yesterday Chesapeake filed disclosure forms with the Securities and Exchange Commission which says the U.S. Dept. of Justice, a number of states, and even the U.S. Postal Service have served the company with subpoenas for information. In essence, everyone has subpoenaed Chesapeake for everything…
The Democrat-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled yesterday in another (hopefully final) decision on the 2012 Act 13 Marcellus drilling law passed and signed by then-Gov. Tom Corbett. Four Democrat judges have just struck down more of Act 13, leaving not much left except the part that raises money and gives it away (called an impact fee, otherwise known as a severance tax). You will recall that seven selfish towns sued the state over the Act 13 law and it’s provision that would substitute a statewide, uniform and fair set of zoning ordinances for drilling in place of a patchwork, crazy quilt system of local ordinances for oil and gas drilling. These seven selfish towns wanted their own ordinances and sued, ultimately winning at the Supreme Court (see 
Earlier this week MDN brought you the dynamite news that Rice Energy is buying out Vantage Energy for $2.7 billion (see