EIA Predicts HH $3.07 in 2021; Production Up, Consumption Down 2021
Each month our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), issues a Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. The STEO covers all of the major energy sources produced and consumed in the country. The latest edition, issued yesterday, finds the analysts at EIA revising up the expected marketed production and consumption of natural gas in 3Q21. Also up is the expected average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub–now up to a predicted $3.07/MMBtu for all of 2021. However, EIA says natural gas consumption for all of 2021 will sink by half of one percent from 2020. Why?
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It’s getting far more expensive to drill a shale well of any kind according to analysts at Citigroup. Inflation overall is on the increase. You can’t keep throwing trillions of printed, made-up money into the economy (a la “stimulus checks”) without the inevitable inflation happening. Too much money chasing too few goods and services equal higher prices, i.e. inflation. Citigroup says the inflation rate for the shale industry could reach 12% by the end of this year. That’s massive.
Two of three Marcellus/Utica states received permits to drill new shale wells last week. Pennsylvania issued 13 new permits, almost all of them in the dry gas northeastern part of the state. Ohio issued 11 new permits, in the center of the Utica play. West Virginia’s shale industry got skunked last week–no new permits. It’s been quite a while since that’s happened in WV.
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Energy production important to Pennsylvania’s environmental future; NATIONAL: Light crude settles above $70 a barrel; US natural gas exports necessary to fight climate change; What you need to know about energy markets in one place – absolutely no charge!; Ovintiv CEO Doug Suttles announces retirement; Only 33% of US adults surveyed support complete phase-out of fossil fuels.
Leftists in states like California, Washington, and New York either already have, or are attempting to, outlaw the use of natural gas by homes and businesses. The first step they take is to disallow any new buildings to be connected to natural gas delivery lines. Eventually, they will force existing customers to stop using natural gas and force them to use electricity instead for heating and cooking. Or simply go without heat and cooking (they really don’t care). Leftists are drunk with their own power to force other people to do what they want them to do. Meanwhile, other states, like Texas, Florida, and many others are blocking efforts to block natural gas. The pro-gas states are actually winning the gas-ban war.
Yesterday the U.S. Dept. of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) submitted an advisory bulletin to the Federal Register. The notice is for pipeline operators. It reminds them that PHMSA has a very big stick that the agency intends to use to force pipeline owners to clamp down on fugitive methane emissions. PHMSA is using the Protecting our Infrastructure of Pipelines and Enhancing Safety (PIPES) Act of 2020, passed and signed during the waning days of the Trump administration, as a big stick to force expensive upgrades to capture every last molecule of CH4, supposedly to cut down on man-made global warming.
It’s been too long (months!) since we’ve last updated our calendar of events page. We updated it as of today. Below is the list of events we are aware of that will be of interest to those with an interest in the Marcellus/Utica shale region for the balance of 2021. Some events are in the region (PA, OH, WV). Some are not (TX, MA, other states). And some are virtual/online. All of them are of potential interest to the MDN audience.
Two and a half years after Energy Transfer’s (ET) 24-inch Revolution Pipeline entered service in western Pennsylvania and exploded following a landslide (in September 2018), the pipeline finally returned to service in March of this year (see 
Pennsylvania’s Democrats are having trouble selling the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a carbon tax aimed at shutting down PA’s coal and natural gas-fired power plants, and by extension shutting down many shale-related jobs in the state. The Dems can’t paper over the fact that RGGI will spell massive layoffs. So what do they propose? Government handouts to those who get laid off, paying them literally pennies on the dollar in government welfare checks in return for “saving the planet” by shuttering coal and gas-fired plants (and putting people out of work). That’s the brilliant solution proposed in a bill offered up by southeast PA state Senator Carolyn Comitta (D-Chester County).
Weather always has been, and remains, THE prime factor in the price of natural gas. In wintertime cold temps lead to the use of more natural gas to burn as heating fuel. In the summer months, high temps mean more electricity is used to power air conditioning units. Last Friday forecasters predicted a spike in temps in the midsection and northeast parts of the country. Along with that forecast came a spike in the price of electric power in both regions, and closely tied to it, a spike in the price of natural gas in both regions.