Decline Rates for Shale Wells Mean We’re on a Drilling Treadmill
The U.S. oil and natural gas sector operates on a drilling treadmill. As production from existing wells rapidly declines—a trend exacerbated by the faster decline rates of prolific horizontal (shale) wells—operators are forced to drill new wells to maintain current output. Since 2010, however, new hydrocarbon production in the Lower 48 states has been robust enough to not only offset these significant losses but also increase overall production levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published a post yesterday explaining the shale drilling “treadmill” we find ourselves on. Read More “Decline Rates for Shale Wells Mean We’re on a Drilling Treadmill”
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Tom Shepstone – champion of energy sanity and human flourishing; OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Let Andrew Cuomo’s latest farewell be his last one, too; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas futures snap winning streak; The DC Circuit Court is blocking America’s energy dominance; INTERNATIONAL: Crude slides despite strong demand; Canadian gov signals plans to scrap oil, gas emissions cap; ADNOC leans on USA expertise for ‘promising’ shale pivot; European gas prices fall amid strong LNG imports; Natural gas freight rates surge by 50% as Europe races to refill inventories. 
In October 2021, one of the Marcellus’ premier drillers, Cabot Oil & Gas, merged with/into Cimarex Energy, an oil driller focused on the Permian and Anadarko basins (see 
Coterra Energy, formed by the merger of Cabot Oil & Gas (drills for natural gas in the Marcellus) and Cimarex Energy (drills for oil in the Permian and Anadarko basins), issued its third quarter 2025 update yesterday. What stood out to us is just how little new drilling the company did in the Marcellus during 3Q. Coterra spud (began to drill) 15 new Marcellus wells during 3Q, while it spud 68 wells in the Permian and 11 in the Anadarko basins. The company brought online to sales (called turned-in-line, or TIL) 4 wells in the Marcellus, 64 TILs in the Permian, and 8 TILs in the Anadarko. That about says it all. 
In June, EQT Corp. agreed to pay $167.5 million to investors who claimed the company overstated the benefits of its $6.7 billion merger with Rice Energy (see 
In February 2024, members of the South Carolina Public Service Commission approved a proposed project to build a 1,020-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in the state’s Lowcountry, in Colleton County (see 
Hell has officially frozen over. New York Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking to revise the state’s 2019 Climate Act, recognizing that its mandates for a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 are financially unsustainable for New Yorkers and have become a major election issue due to rapidly rising energy costs. This move follows a court ruling compelling the state to either change the law or issue the “infeasible” regulations by a February 2026 deadline, a task the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) had previously avoided due to the “extraordinary and damaging costs” it would impose. The law’s implementation is further complicated by state electric power “plans” that rely on non-existent technology, highlighting the impossibility of meeting the 2030 target and setting the stage for a significant political battle as the law finally hits an economic wall. But that’s not all… 
Antero Resources, the largest Marcellus/Utica (M-U) driller in West Virginia, released its Q3 2025 update with two significant announcements. One is that newly appointed CEO Michael Kennedy is “excited” for the company to return to dry gas drilling after “more than a decade,” with the first new dry gas well specifically intended to service the data center market. Second, we can confirm our prior speculation to say that Antero is officially marketing its Ohio Utica assets for sale. We previously brought you that rumor in early September (see 
Last week, CNX Resources issued its third quarter 2025 update. Notably, the company did not drill, frack, or complete any new wells in 3Q25. The company reported a profit of $202.1 million for the quarter, compared to a profit of $65.5 million in 3Q24. The company generated $226 million in free cash flow, marking the 23rd consecutive quarter of FCF generation. Production was 161.3 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) in 3Q25 — which works out to 1.75 Bcfe/d — up from 134.5 Bcfe last year (a 20% increase). The reason for the sizeable increase was that CNX closed on the purchase of Apex Energy during the first quarter, and Apex’s production numbers were fully added to CNX’s numbers beginning in 2Q25. 
Marcellus/Utica natural gas production is rebounding in November, increasing by about 700 MMcf/d to an average of 35.5 Bcf/d recently, as drillers react to rising in-basin pricing and tightening regional fundamentals due to higher seasonal demand. This increase signifies an easing of the production shut-ins carried out during the third quarter when loose supply-demand dynamics pushed prices, which averaged $1.40-$2.97/MMBtu, to an average of below $2/MMBtu on more than a third of days. 
AltaGas is a Canada-based corporation that owns and operates both midstream (pipeline) and utilities businesses. AltaGas is a minority owner of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which stretches from Wetzel County, West Virginia, to Pittsylvania County, Virginia. AltaGas issued a press release yesterday stating that it has decided to continue owning its minority stake in MVP (a 10% ownership stake) and, instead of selling its stake to raise capital, will issue new common stock to raise $400 million. The company will not only retain its ownership stake in the original MVP, but also its stake in expanding MVP by another 600 MMcf/d (called MVP Boost) and in extending MVP into North Carolina (called MVP Southgate). 
Deep River Data, a company with connections to the cryptocurrency industry, wants to drill for natural gas in Lee County, North Carolina. However, production from the well would not be used to power crypto mining, but instead to fuel an AI data center. If approved, the project would be the first commercial well drilled into the Triassic Basin, a natural gas repository underlying North Carolina and other Eastern Seaboard states. The well that is planned is conventional, not shale, so it involves no (or very little) fracking. 
North Dakota’s regulatory framework is a model of simplicity. Companies pay a modest $100 fee for drilling permits, compared to $12,500 in Pennsylvania, and typically receive approval in 20 to 30 days. That efficiency has proven pivotal since 2010, when horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing significantly expanded the Bakken Formation’s potential for commercial-scale production. Of course, there’s a big difference between PA and ND—companies drill for oil in ND and natural gas in PA. So it’s not like a driller would say, “Screw it, we’ll leave PA and go drill in ND where it’s easier, faster, and cheaper.” However, drillers can/are leaving PA for Ohio and West Virginia, where it’s easier, faster, and cheaper. We bring you this masterclass on how ND makes drilling better, so perhaps, just perhaps, someone at the PA DEP (and the politicians involved in approving permit fees) will wake up and improve the experience in the Keystone State. 
In an announcement issued yesterday, the PJM Interconnection electrical grid forecasts adequate power supplies to meet this winter’s expected conditions, with 180,800 megawatts (MW) of operational capacity available to serve a record-high forecasted peak demand of approximately 145,700 MW. Despite this positive outlook, the grid operator warns that reserve margins are tightening, dropping to 7,500 MW, because electricity demand is growing faster than the addition of new generation.