Economist Reveals What Happens if Frack Ban Becomes Reality
You’ve read the news that Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, along with most (if not all) of the Democrat presidential candidates, support a full-on ban of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas (see Crazy Bernie & AOC Intro Bill to Ban ALL Fracking in 5 Years). What, specifically, would happen to the American economy if that actually happened? We have the answer, and it’s not pretty. Forbes contributor and Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), Michael Lynch, has just published a new study (full copy below) that answers the question of what happens if America bans fracking.
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Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is out with another intriguing post. EIA takes a look at their best estimates of natural gas production in the U.S. over the next 30 years, to 2050. When the number crunchers at EIA analyze this stuff, they run multiple scenarios. One scenario (or “case”) assumes a rosy picture, with high oil and gas supplies. Another case assumes high oil prices. Another case assumes low oil prices. And yet another case assumes low oil and gas supplies. Finally, there is the “reference” case–or the scenario EIA thinks is most likely to happen. As the data geeks look out over the next three decades, in all but one of their scenarios/cases they see natural gas production increase.
LNG (liquefied natural gas) is one of two primary new “demand centers” for the natural gas produced in the Marcellus/Utica. The other demand center is gas-fired electric power plants. Last week S&P Global held its 19th annual S&P Global Platts LNG Conference in Houston. The message was loud and clear: U.S. LNG producers are being told to either shut in some of their production (for now), or find new markets (beyond Asia and Europe). Otherwise, prices for LNG will continue to crash worldwide and new plants may not get built.
Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s supermajors (oil and gas driller), is, in fact, one of (perhaps THE) largest producer of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, in the world. The company has just released its fourth annual LNG Outlook 2020 (full copy below) which highlights key trends in 2019 and hauls out the crystal ball to predict where things are heading over the next 20 years. Shell says global demand for LNG is expected to double to 700 million tonnes by 2040. Why? Because natgas emits less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than other alternatives.
We knew this day would come (although we secretly wished it never would). Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, yesterday released our favorite monthly report–the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The DPR chronicles how much oil and gas the country’s seven largest shale plays produced last month and their prediction for the coming month. For the first time in 39 months, the combined natural gas output of the seven shale plays will decrease instead of increase. But what a run it’s been! With gas prices in the basement and drillers slashing budgets and people, this was bound to happen. However, shale oil output will hit a new record in March: 9.18 million barrels per day.
Last year a sewage treatment facility in Belle Vernon (Fayette County, PA) claimed the effluent (runoff) it was receiving from a nearby landfill in Westmoreland County contained high levels of salt and radioactivity and was causing damage to their treatment system (see 
Big time opposition continues to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s plan to force the state to participate in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a tax on carbon aimed at coal and natural gas-fired electric power plants, with an eye to driving them out of business. We’ve written plenty about Wolf’s naked power grab, to force the state into RGGI without the legislature’s consent (
Is anyone shocked at the audacity of anti-fossil fuel groups like the Sierra Club to simply manufacture (make up, out of nothing) new “data” with wild claims of radioactivity in order to block a New York landfill from expanding to accept more PA drill cuttings from shale sites? We aren’t.
A U.S.-based compressor station facility had to shut down operations for two days after sustaining a cyber attack that prevented personnel from receiving crucial real-time operational data from control and communication equipment, according to the Dept. of Homeland Security. We do not know if the compressor was located in the Marcellus/Utica or another shale play. We do know this is a serious–and an increasing problem. We consider it cyber terrorism.
Pennsylvania Democrats are complaining about State Senate Republicans using a political tactic against the Dems that they themselves use. Which we find hilarious. We’re referring to a recently passed House Bill (HB) 1100, a bill to encourage new petrochemical plant investment in PA (see 
Bills aimed at clamping down on illegal pipeline protests (which pretending to be free speech but aren’t) have been introduced in both the Ohio and West Virginia legislatures. In WV, House Bill (HB) 4615 passed the House last week and is now under active consideration in the WV Senate. In Ohio, Senate Bill (SB) 133 was passed last May. The bill was recently reported out of a House committee and likely to see a full House vote soon. It’s obvious that regular folks are tired of radicals and their illegal attempts to block pipeline projects.
More obsessing and hand-wringing over the low price of natural gas (we can’t help it!). Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post on Friday that points out the NYMEX price of natural gas has hit its lowest level for a February day in the past 20 years, closing at $1.77/MMBtu on Feb. 10 (up slightly since then). EIA also points out these are the lowest absolute prices (for any day in any month) we’ve seen in the past four years–since the price crash of 2016. Again, the price crash is happening in February! Yuck.
In the space of a little over 10 years natural gas has gone from “climate hero” to “climate villain.” In no small part the change has come due to huge amounts of money spent by disgusting Big Green groups like the Sierra Club, Food & Water Watch, NRDC, EDF and others. We’d guess if you were to ask most Americans, they would say fossil fuels (like natural gas) will be replaced “soon” by electricity–not knowing natgas is the single largest source of generating electricity! At the Winter Policy Summit of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) last week, a standing-room-only crowd filled a session moderated by former FERC Commissioner Cherly LaFleur on the topic of how soon the electric sector (along with other sectors) will “wean off gas” here in the United States.