Anti-Fossil Fuel IEA Predicts (Surprise!) O&G in Decline by 2035

These days we pretty much ignore the International Energy Agency (IEA) because its Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, is someone who spouts anti-fossil fuel rhetoric every chance he gets. IEA’s pronouncements are to be ignored, like this one from the recently published World Energy Outlook 2022: “global demand for natural gas, coal and oil is expected to peak or plateau by the mid-2030s.” Mainstream media, and even oil and gas media, pick up the IEA’s nonsense and regurgitate it as if it’s actually noteworthy. So today, we bring you the IEA’s recently published annual WEO-2022 and its anti-fossil fuel pronouncements as a sterling example of what NOT to pay attention to.
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OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Archrock and EnerVest successful field pilot of methane capture tech; California’s natural-gas bans push largest gas utility to find a new strategy; New Fortress LNG plant review resumes, start-up slips to 2H23; NATIONAL: SLB and Linde partner on CCUS; Windfall tax on Big Oil is more US politics than real threat; Biden, Trudeau choose green war on oil and gas over working class.
In June, MDN told you about this year’s distribution of last year’s (2021) Pennsylvania impact fee revenue (PA’s version of a severance tax) to local municipalities and to the black hole of Harrisburg politicians (see
Politics is fascinating for us (in case you couldn’t tell when reading MDN). This site often features articles about the intersection of politics and energy. Living in New York State, editor Jim Willis has long advocated for shale drilling. Fracking in NY was the reason Jim started this blog/news site! MDN began in 2009 when shale drilling in NY seemed about to take off. And then, a series of unfortunate events led to the profoundly corrupt Andrew Cuomo becoming governor, seizing power in the Empire State. Cuomo not only temporarily blocked fracking in NY, he ultimately signed a bill into law permanently banning it (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says natural gas consumption in all sectors in the United States was effectively flat between 2020 and 2021, down by only 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The pandemic was to blame. Natgas usage hit a record high in 2019, just prior to the pandemic, but has decreased since that time. In 2021, natural gas used in the electric power sector (which is the largest U.S. natural gas-consuming sector) decreased by 3%. However, and this is the good news, the EIA predicts natural gas-fired generation will increase by 5% this year.
You know what kneecapping is, right? It happens when a gangster or thug uses a handgun (or baseball bat) to shoot someone in the knee, inflicting permanent, lifetime damage. It’s a very cruel form of punishment inflicted on one’s enemy. It’s also an apt metaphor for what is coming under the so-called Biden Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the renamed version of what had been called Build Back Better, made possible by a single vote from U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (see
Late last week, both the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) held a conference call with Freeport LNG to discuss progress being made in restoring the 2.1 Bcf/d LNG export facility back to full working order. Freeport experienced an explosion and fire in early June (see
Being a “pure-play” or “single play” (as the Brits call it) shale driller has its advantages. It also, in a changing world, can have its risks, or disadvantages. That is the point made in a new analysis by global research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Wood specializes in doling out advice on oil, gas, LNG, power, renewables, chemicals, and metals & mining. In an excellent article delving into the advantages and disadvantages of being a pure-play driller, Wood makes the following observation: “Five US operators – EQT, Pioneer, Antero, Diamondback and Range – have amassed single-basin positions on a global scale.” Yeah, three of the five are M-U pure-play drillers, and the assets they have “amassed” rival (produce more) than many of the Majors’ non-shale assets. It is a truly amazing feat.
CNX Resources released its third quarter 2022 update late last week. The company lost $427 million in profit for the quarter versus losing $873 million in 3Q21. It generated $135 million in free cash flow. Total 3Q revenues of $476 million improved slightly year over year from the previous year’s $455 million. CNX sold its gas for an average of $3.25 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), up 10% from the year-ago figure of $2.96/Mcfe. Production costs were $1.64/Mcfe, up 6% from one year ago–due to inflation.
Southwestern Energy, which along with EQT and Chesapeake Energy, is one of the three leading producers of natural gas in the U.S., issued its third quarter update last Friday. The company reported total net production of 443 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent), or 4.8 Bcfe/d, including 4.2 Bcf/d of natural gas and 97,000 barrels per day (Bbls/d) of liquids. Southwestern invested $543 million of capital during 3Q and placed 31 wells online to sales, including 14 in the Marcellus/Utica and 17 in Haynesville. The company made $450 million in profit during 3Q22, versus losing $1.86 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) has, for a second time, served a notice of violation (NOV) of the PA Clean Streams Law to Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) for causing sediment pollution in the Loyalsock Creek north of Montoursville (Lycoming County). PGE is constructing a natural gas pipeline, a freshwater pipeline, and it withdraws fresh water for Marcellus Shale-related activities at the site.
We’ve been warning about it for years because various government and private companies have been warning about it–that Boston and New England were just one extended cold snap away from rolling blackouts. More than half of all electricity generated and provided to New England comes from natural gas-fired power plants. During cold periods when there is high demand for home heating, power plants are threatened with shortages. Somehow New England has dodged a bullet and has not had to resort to rolling blackouts. Until (likely) this year. Eversource, the region’s largest utility company, sent a letter last Thursday to President Biden urging him to assemble a panel and figure out how to ensure natgas flows to New England (via LNG) this winter–because if it doesn’t, this IS the year rolling blackouts become reality.
We began to see the latest fake news attacks against natural gas nearly two weeks ago. The extreme, leftwing activist group Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Healthy Energy (PSEHE) produced a junk science report that claims the natural gas in your cooking stove is leaking gas that contains chemicals that cause cancer. Mainstream outlets, like NBC News, dutifully (without verifying it) reported this nonsense like it was legitimate science news. It is not. It’s quackery. But then NBC (and others like it) have VERY low standards. NBC is more into propaganda and advocacy than it is reporting objective, unbiased news. No worries. We will debunk it for you below.